Drones alone won’t solve US Navy’s China problem

While the US looks to small unmanned systems to bolster its Pacific fleet, a high-ranking US naval officer has warned drones may not be enough to win a future conflict with China.

Admiral Sam Paparo, commander of US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), said during a recent presentation at the Brookings Institution think tank that while drones are useful in confined spaces, US forces will still need air and sea superiority vis-à-vis China.

He pointed out that small drones, though effective in areas like the Taiwan Strait, require substantial support from bases such as Okinawa, Japan, which is 436 nautical miles away.

While Paparo did not mention the exact locations in the Taiwan Strait where US drones supported from Okinawa can operate, these locations might be near possible Chinese landing sites in Southern Taiwan, such as Fangliao.

Paparo criticized the oversimplified comparison between Ukraine’s use of drones against Russia in the Black Sea and a potential conflict with China over Taiwan, noting that China’s military capabilities, including 2,100 fighters and three aircraft carriers, far exceed those of Russia.

Paparo stressed that human decision-making remains crucial in conflict scenarios despite advancements in unmanned technology. The US Department of Defense’s (DOD) Replicator initiative aims to deploy thousands of unmanned platforms, but Paparo cautioned against relying solely on these systems, underscoring the importance of comprehensive military strategy and readiness.

Asia Times has previously discussed the advantages and disadvantages of unmanned surface vessels (USV) in naval operations.

USVs offer strategic advantages and critical vulnerabilities, transforming the nature of modern naval warfare. With units priced as low as US$250,000, their cost-effectiveness enables cash-strapped or smaller navies to produce swarms of these drones to overwhelm more advanced adversaries with sheer numbers.

While the US Navy is far from cash-strapped and small, it faces severe challenges in ramping up its naval shipbuilding capacity. China now has the world’s largest navy in fleet numbers. The US DOD’s 2023 China Military Power Report mentions that the PLA Navy (PLA-N) has 370 ships and submarines, with over 140 surface combatants.

Asia Times has reported that US naval shipbuilding faces mounting challenges in countering China’s rapid naval expansion, reflecting deeper shipbuilding and industrial capacity issues. China’s 13 naval shipyards underscore this disparity, each outpacing the combined output of all seven US naval shipyards.

While the US grapples with budget cuts, skilled labor shortages and regulatory constraints, China has leveraged civil-military fusion to enhance productivity, integrate cutting-edge civilian technologies and maintain cost efficiency.

China’s numerical advantage may eclipse the US’s qualitative edge, as fleet size often determines outcomes in naval warfare. Further, the US Navy’s reliance on expensive, high-capability ships like aircraft carriers raises concerns about vulnerability to China’s increasingly sophisticated missile arsenal, including hypersonic systems.

While USVs cannot fully replace traditional warships, they can execute complex, unpredictable maneuvers, evade detection with low profiles and achieve successful strikes on high-value targets. This technology is critical for asymmetric warfare, which enhances smaller forces’ capabilities to counter larger, more advanced navies.

However, their potential as a “wonder weapon” is tempered by significant limitations. For one, the harsh maritime environment often accelerates the degradation of their systems, and as they grow more autonomous, they become attractive targets for cyberattacks.

Communication vulnerabilities, such as reliance on external antennas and encryption keys, expose USVs to jamming and interception. Supply chain dependencies, notably for advanced microchips, further complicate their deployment.

These limitations suggest that USVs should complement other defensive measures, like naval mines and anti-ship missiles, rather than serve as standalone solutions.

USVs may be unable to sustain operations in prolonged, large-scale conflicts, where traditional warships’ endurance and magazine depth are vital in defeating enemy drone and missile attacks.

Kris Osborn, in an article for Warrior Maven this month, mentioned that Rear Admiral Javon “Hak” Hakimsadeh, commander of Carrier Strike Group-2, emphasized the critical importance of “magazine depth” in countering drone swarm attacks during US naval operations in the Red Sea.

Hakimsadeh highlighted that sustaining prolonged engagements against large numbers of drones is essential for maintaining operational effectiveness. The recent Red Sea deployment underscored the need for sufficient ammunition reserves, as US Navy warships successfully intercepted numerous Houthi anti-ship cruise missiles and drones using a combination of interceptors, deck-mounted guns and air-to-air missiles.

Coordinating large USV fleets in real-time during contested operations also brings significant technical challenges.

In a February 2024 article in the peer-reviewed Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Jingchen Wang and other writers mention that coordinating large fleets of USVs is a complex challenge, especially when ensuring they move together safely without collisions.

Wang and others suggest a dual-layered control system: one system plans the fleet’s movement while the other manages the real-time actions of each vehicle. However, they point out that balancing the need for tight formations with avoiding obstacles and other vehicles is the most significant difficulty.

To prevent crashes, the writers mention that the system uses an intelligent method that calculates safe distances based on the speed and direction of each USV, an approach they say is more flexible and effective than older methods.

It also requires constant communication between vehicles and real-time adjustments, which becomes more challenging as the fleet grows.

Wang and others state that the system must also decide when to prioritize safety over sticking to formation plans. They point out this makes managing a large fleet tricky, as the system must constantly balance safety, formation goals and the need for quick calculations.

As Paparo cautioned against relying solely on unmanned systems to maintain an edge over China, manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) becomes critical in ensuring their effective use in naval operations.

However, Jaquelyn Banas and other writers mention in an October 2020 conference paper that effective MUM-T requires advanced autonomy to reduce crew workload, robust designs to endure saltwater and turbulence, and improved collision avoidance systems for shipboard operations.

Banas and others point out that current unmanned capabilities are constrained by line-of-sight data links and limited endurance, which often add to crew workload. They say integrating sophisticated control interfaces, task-based autonomy and reliable communication systems like Link 16 is critical for safe and efficient maritime MUM-T operations.