US Navy in a losing race to close China fleet gap

The US Navy is significantly upgrading four Arleigh Burke-class destroyers with advanced radars and electronic warfare systems in an apparent stopgap bid to counterbalance China’s growing naval might.

This month, The Warzone reported that the US Navy has named the USS Pinckney, USS James E Williams, USS Chung Hoon and USS Halsey for the upgrades.

The upgrades will include the new AN/ALQ-32(V)7 Surface Electronic Warfare Improvement Program (SEWIP) Block III electronic warfare suite, thermal management systems, the new AN/SPY-6(V)4 radar and an improved version of the Aegis Combat System. 

The SEWIP Block III suite features active electronically scanned array technology, allowing powerful bursts of radio-frequency energy to launch electronic attacks on multiple targets. The US Navy is also acquiring two other radars in the SPY-6 family for integration on other ships.

The Warzone says that the US Navy is upgrading an initial four Arleigh Burke destroyers to the so-called Mod 2.0 configuration in two phases, with the first phase receiving all components except for the new radar. 

Other ships in the class will be upgraded to the Mod 2.0 configuration after the first four Arleigh Burke destroyers. The US Navy is also acquiring new Flight III Arleigh Burkes, which will become the US Navy’s primary air defense command and control platform afloat.

At the same time, the US Navy is planning to develop a larger class of destroyers, known as DDG(X) with a displacement of around 13,500 tons, in fiscal year 2032 without disrupting Arleigh Burke production. 

The DDG-51 Mod 2.0, or DDG 2.0 standard, may be a stopgap solution until newer Arleigh Burke Flight III and DDG(X) hulls come into service, providing high-end surface warfare capabilities to replace the Ticonderoga class. 

Asia Times noted in June 2023 that the Arleigh Burke class may already have exhausted its upgrade potential, as its internal space limitations limit the installation of newer power generation systems, meaning further communications, sensors, weapons systems and directed energy weapons may not be installed.

The US Navy is retiring its Ticonderoga-class cruisers despite their formidable armament and critical role as operations centers for US carrier strike groups’ air warfare commanders. 

On average, the Ticonderoga-class cruisers are 35 years old and suffer from cracking and structural issues, obsolescence and supportability issues, with the substantial cost of repairs and maintenance outweighing their remaining warfighting value. 

Although a proposed Arleigh Burke Flight IV would have restored the air defense commander capability in the aging Ticonderoga-class cruisers, in 2014, the US Navy canceled its development to build nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) over surface warships. 

As the stopgap Arleigh Burke DDG-51 Mod 2.0 upgrades are being implemented, the US Navy now likely faces a “cruiser gap” vis-a-vis China.

In an October 2023 article for Defense News, Geoff Ziezulewicz mentions that the modernization program for the Ticonderoga-class cruisers has not gone as planned, with policy delays, maintenance issues and cost overruns impacting the fleet’s readiness amid the steady retirement of the class.

Ziezulewicz notes that while the Arleigh Burke Mod 2.0 and Flight IIIs can take on fleet air defense missions, they do not have the missile capacity of the Ticonderoga-class cruisers. 

The Ticonderoga-class cruisers are heavily armed with 122 vertical launch missile cells, compared to the 96 on the Arleigh Burke destroyers. 

In comparison, China’s Type 055 cruiser has 112 vertical missile cells which are larger and deeper, reflecting a greater emphasis on anti-surface warfare than fleet air defense. However, China’s Type 052 destroyer has 64 vertical launch cells, far less than the Arleigh Burke. 

Missile and fleet air defense capability may be decisive factors in a South China Sea conflict, as aircraft carriers and other warships become increasingly vulnerable against sophisticated anti-ship missiles.

An October 2023 US Congressional Research Service (CRS) report notes that China has fielded the DF-21D and DF-26 anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM), with ranges of 1,500 and 3,000-4,000 kilometers, respectively. 

CRS mentions that such missiles, combined with broad-area maritime surveillance and targeting systems, are cause for strategic concern as they can hit US carriers and allied warships operating in the Western Pacific. 

The report notes that the US Navy has not previously faced a threat from highly accurate ballistic missiles capable of hitting moving targets at sea. It also notes that China has now equipped its Type 055 cruisers with the YJ-21 hypersonic anti-ship missile, which can travel at Mach 6 with a Mach 10 terminal phase. 

In a sea conflict, China may use successive missile volleys to deplete the missile magazines of US fleet air defense cruisers and destroyers, leaving aircraft carriers vulnerable.

In May 2023, Asia Times reported about a Chinese computer simulation wherein China used 24 hypersonic missiles in three waves to sink the USS Gerald Ford carrier, USS San Jacinto Ticonderoga-class cruiser and four Arleigh Burke Flight IIA guided missile destroyers in a South China Sea conflict scenario, depleting the US fleet’s 264 interceptor missiles. 

While the production of upgraded Arleigh Burkes and DDG(X) development gets up to speed, it is doubtful that the US Navy will have enough of those ships to match China’s People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N).

The US Department of Defense’s 2023 China Military Power Report says that the PLA-N is the largest navy in the world, with 370 ships and submarines, and 140 major surface combatants. Sam Tangredi states in a January 2023 Proceedings article that historical evidence shows that numerical superiority trumps short-lived technological advantages in naval warfare. 

Tangredi’s research, spanning the Peloponnesian War to the Cold War, shows that 25 of 28 naval wars were won by superior fleet numbers, with only three won out of technological advantage. 

Asia Times noted in February 2023 that US naval shipbuilding pales compared to China, with one of China’s 13 naval shipyards capable of producing more ships than all seven US naval shipyards combined. 

While the US has embarked on a massive naval shipbuilding program, its focus on large, traditional warships such as aircraft carriers, destroyers and amphibious warfare ships raises questions about putting so much capability into a few expensive and potentially vulnerable ships.