China’s territorial assertiveness has rapidly revived the long-dormant Quadrilateral (Quad) alliance among major maritime powers India, Japan, Australia and the United States.
A renewed sense of urgency among China’s strategic rivals is being driven partly by growing frustration with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) grouping’s inability to tame Beijing’s geopolitical ambitions through dialogue and engagement.
With Asean’s centrality in question, classic balance of power calculations are beginning to define the future of the Asia-Pacific’s strategic order – or disorder, as it may become. The major risk with the Quad’s formation is that, viewed by Beijing as a provocation, it fuels rather than constrains China’s maritime assertiveness, particularly in the South China Sea.
In recent years, China’s Quad rivals have stepped up joint naval drills among themselves, while hosting various high-profile exercises aimed at defending freedom of navigation and overflight in international waters.
India is set to host an eight-day joint naval exercise around the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, a highly strategic group of islands at the crossroads of the South China Sea and Indian Ocean. As many as 16 nations, including Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore, are set to participate in the exercises.
Interestingly, the exercises were announced shortly after an agreement was reached between China and Asean to hold their first ever joint naval exercises later this year.
Last year, Washington, Tokyo and New Delhi participated in the Malabar naval exercises staged in India, with a heavy focus on anti-submarine warfare (ASW), a crucial area of vulnerability for China’s rising naval power.
It was the second time that the maritime powers conducted the week-long drills, which are expected to be regularized in coming years.
Quad nations are also contemplating further coordinated countermeasures in the South China Sea in order to keep Beijing’s expanding footprint in the area in check. The anticipated appointment of US Pacific Command chief Admiral Harry Harris, a known China hawk, as new US ambassador to Australia is expected to further institutionalize such efforts.
Harris, a Japanese-American by birth, has been a key architect of America’s broader “Indo-Pacific” strategy, which is anchored through the growing participation of democratic powers in Asia to preserve the US-led liberal order in the region.
Under Harris’ watch, Washington has been requesting Australia and other major allies to participate in its Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs), which directly challenge China’s perceived as excessive claims in the South China Sea.
As an incoming top diplomat, he is expected to lobby hard for more concrete naval countermeasures among the Quad nations, including Australia.
Harris’ strategic views build on the earlier “democratic security diamond” vision of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who has sought to counterbalance China’s maritime power through strengthened coordination among like-minded Asian powers.
In recent months, US President Donald Trump administration officials have consistently used the term “Indo-Pacific”, rather than “Asia-Pacific”, during their visits to Asia, signaling high-level acceptance of the Abe-Harris geopolitical paradigm.
To be sure, China is not the only force that is driving the Quad alliance. To the chagrin of Washington and its major allies, Asean has increasingly toed Beijing’s line on major flashpoints such as the South China Sea disputes.
In the past, there was cautious optimism among major regional powers that Southeast Asian nations would collectively stand up to as well as socialize their powerful northern neighbor along more pacifist, multilateralist principles.
Instead, China has managed to divide and conquer Asean through its reliable allies Cambodia and Laos, allowing it to turn the regional body that was first formed to counter communism into a de facto shield against its rivals.
This new trend was particularly acute under last year’s chairmanship of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who effectively told the US and other major powers to stay out of the South China Sea disputes in favor of bilateral deals between China and its smaller Southeast Asian partners.
Major Asean members, including Singapore and Indonesia, have echoed Beijing’s claim that the situation in the area is generally “stable”, even though China’s massive reclamation activities and full-fledged militarization of artificially-created islands in the South China Sea have gone unabated.
Uncertain about America’s commitment to the region, and wooed by China’s massive economic carrots, Asean appears to have opted for graceful accommodation with its northern neighbor despite its rising naval prowess in nearby waters.
There is no guarantee, however, that the Quad nations themselves will ever form a strong enough counter-alliance to deter China’s ambitions.
Since the early 2000s, India, Japan, Australia and the US have consistently talked about forming a robust coalition, yet internal bickering, tempestuous domestic politics, fears of undermining lucrative economic ties with China, as well as a lack of cohesive vision and leadership have diminished the prospective alliance.
India, for its part, remains deeply adamant about not following in America’s footsteps, while Australia is particularly intent on preserving its strong economic relationship with China. Japan and the US, meanwhile, have been constrained by the vicissitudes of their respective domestic politics.
Nonetheless, China has openly characterized the Quad as a provocative encirclement strategy.
This has given Beijing a perfect pretext to fortify its military footprint in adjacent waters through a growing naval presence, large-scale reclamation activities and deployment of advanced weapons systems to the South China Sea.
If present trends hold, the emerging Quad-China rivalry could quickly undermine Asean’s past role in shaping the region’s security architecture and keeping relative peace. Southeast Asian countries will either rise to the occasion, or risk becoming a mere bystander to the region’s escalating great power contest.
Venugopal Gopalsamy
Thambi or Anna (if you are over 70) what do you mean? Please explain? I know India and China have problems at the fenceline, as all neighbours do since ancient times like siblings. It is a natural part of being neighbours and family. But border issue aside, and let us just accept that China does not accept the MacMahon Line drawn up unilaterally by the British. But how else is India aggressive towards India. Yes, China is aggressive towards the whiteman called U.S. because it is flying the flag of retribution against what the whiteman did to China – trying to conquer China (but failed) (like the way the British conquered the Indian sub-continent and Lord MacCauley forcing all Indians to be Anglophiles) and forcing China to sell tea in exchange for Opium as legal tender! Yes, China is saying to the whiteman that they cannot treat the yellow, brown and black as unequal human beings – that it is nonsense that the white man is supreme, is superior, is more beautiful, only the white man knows what is right or wrong, that the white man is God’s gift on Earth. So how can a Chinese be a ‘banana’ or an Indian be a ‘coconut’? But so that we understand – tell me how has China been aggressive to India. The white man is a pampu don’t you know that? If it were not for the British our Mother Bharat would be the entire Indian sub-continent as a whole and Mother Ganga would not have lost her mouth such that she cannot voice her Hindu soul. Please explain – for years I have supported the Tamil society, including in the past, the Tamil Tigers, but the way you say things without solid proof and evidence it makes me want to call you a chunni malam!
Why is that when Asians express their opinions, you call them wumao and must be a paid to do that. But when your type bashes China or others, it’s called opinion?
I would call you racist pig.
Alle
What makes you think India does not see herself as an Asian nation?
Venugopal Gopalsamy
I am not at all surprised my comment makes no sense to you. If you are living in India surrounded by a world filled with nightmares as described in my comment and you cannot see that as an abysmal failure of New Delhi then reason and logic would make no sense to you.
Nonsense you pundai
Carlos De Souza Do you have to ask a question to displacy your ignorance?
Brigades of wumaos are doing their daily quota of spreading lies through fake profiles here in comment sections of Asia Times. What a time to be alive
Yet they prefer Western US led allies instead of thuggery CCP commies. How’s that loo
Every time when I saw your comments it dripped with delusional self monologues tinged with grandiose bravadoes which no one trust other your wumao brethrens.
Read an article that says Reuters was disappointed that Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has not found common ground on trade or containment of China as shown in its report “Trump, Australia’s Turnbull seek common ground on trade, China”. There won’t be any meaningful Quad. Australia would want the US to use its military power more to assuage itself for fear of China but not willing to lose its advantages in trade with China. India is just trying to put itself on the world stage as a significant power but will not commit to any formal military pact or alliance with the US. Japan’s adverse retribution will come as it refuses to acknowledge and show genuine remorse for its brutality and babarity during WW2. Due to its geogaphical size and a shrinking population, it won’t exist as a nation or even as a people if there is a nuclear exchange with the US and Japan will definitely be a nuclear target. Japan better not hope that only the US and China will destroy theselves and they come and pick up the loot. The US under Trump is mainly focussed on America First and on trade. So there won’t be a military confrontation let alone war with China unless due to an accident between the two arm forces and either side miscalculated and blunder into full scale conflict.
Vince Cheok
Well said Vince
This Quad thing is merely some psychological warfare. China is too large and too far to be contained.
In this era of the Internet, propaganda has become much less effective. People of the South East Asia and China will not fall in the trap set up by these 4 former and current imperialists. People in the region will develop their countries with China’s investment and protection.
As a historical note, two centuries ago, East Asia was also living in peace until the arrival of the West. China military power was no match against the West’s, resulting in the whole Asia falling under the West domination and colonialism. But today’s different. China alone can take on these 4, not to mention China is in good terms with most other regional powers which also will be happy to see the evil forces tamed or fall. So it’s not 4 vs China, but rather the rest of the World against the evil 4.
India will never be taken seriously until they start treating its citizens with some respect and build basic housing for the population and deal with the coruption.
Agreed. These are outsiders.
Syed Abbas
Pleasure to read your wise words Abbas
Carlos De Souza
Why?
Thomas Daniel Kuhn Well there is another small problem and that’s Aust.and its trade with China, which from what I have read comes before the wishs of Trump so In would’nt exspect any great push against China from that quarter…
Michael Bagala
Many thanks for your kind words.