Is biotechnology becoming the next space race? The Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO) appears to think so.
This month, it urged Washington to adopt a comprehensive national biotechnology strategy, warning that China is rapidly gaining ground in an industry now viewed as critical to economic competitiveness and national security.
The United States and China have spent years competing across strategic technologies, from semiconductors and telecommunications to artificial intelligence. Biotechnology is now on that list.
The concern is understandable. Chinese life-sciences companies are no longer competing primarily as manufacturers or contract research providers. They are emerging as sources of intellectual property and novel drug development.
Companies such as BeOne and Akeso illustrate this shift. BeOne’s blood-cancer therapy Brukinsa generated US$3.9 billion in annual sales in 2025, illustrating the growing commercial reach of Chinese-developed therapies.
Meanwhile, Akeso’s cancer medicine ivonescimab has attracted international attention for its clinical performance. These companies reflect a broader shift in which Chinese firms compete on drug discovery rather than cost advantages alone.
According to BIO, Chinese biotechnology assets accounted for 56% of global licensing deal value in 2026, up from just 10% in 2021. Chinese companies generated approximately US$59 billion in licensing deal value, surpassing their US counterparts.
Most analysis explains China’s biotech rise through industrial policy or state support. To be sure, these factors matter. But they overlook another force that may prove equally important: demographics.
China’s aging population is usually portrayed as a drag on economic growth. Its old-age dependency ratio recently exceeded its child dependency ratio for the first time, signaling a structural shift towards an older society.
Conventional wisdom suggests that aging weakens competitiveness by reducing labor-force growth and increasing fiscal pressures. But that interpretation captures only part of the picture.
Aging does not merely change government budgets. It changes the structure of demand. As societies age, healthcare becomes a larger share of economic activity.
The need for cancer therapies, cardiovascular treatments, metabolic medicine, diagnostics and preventive care continues to grow. Problems once viewed as niche medical challenges become mass-market opportunities.
From that perspective, demographics function as an innovation signal. They identify where future healthcare needs are likely to concentrate and where capital and talent are most likely to generate returns.
This is particularly relevant in life sciences because healthcare innovation differs from many other high-priority industries. Semiconductor demand is influenced by technological adoption. The rise of AI depends on digital transformation.
In the life sciences, demographic reality is becoming an important growth driver. The older a society becomes, the more valuable technologies that help people stay healthier for longer become. Seen through this lens, China’s aging population may be creating conditions that accelerate healthcare innovation even as it weighs on other parts of the economy.
The commercial success of GLP-1 medicines offers a useful example. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly benefited from a growing recognition that metabolic disease represents one of the largest healthcare challenges facing developed economies. The result was the emergence of a vast market driven by an identifiable and measurable health burden.
China’s demographic transition creates similar incentives across a wider range of therapeutic areas. Oncology and age-related diseases are likely to become important markets. Chinese drug developers are responding accordingly.
BeOne’s global oncology expansion and Akeso’s advances in cancer immunotherapy demonstrate how demographic pressures can reinforce scientific ambition. Firms operating in these areas are responding to demographic necessity and the commercial opportunities it creates.
This dynamic may also help explain why biotechnology is moving higher on geopolitical agendas. For Washington, biotechnology has become a geopolitical competition.
For Beijing, it has become a tool of economic resilience. Both perspectives point to the same conclusion: the life-sciences sector is no longer merely a healthcare industry – it is becoming a core national capability.
The comparison with the space race is revealing. At its core, the Cold War space race was a contest for technological leadership and industrial capacity. Today’s biotech race reflects similar ambitions. The difference is that geopolitics and demographics are shaping this competition.
In the coming decades, aging populations are likely to become one of the most powerful forces directing capital and research investment. This gives China a paradoxical advantage.
The demographic transition, often cited as one of its greatest economic challenges, may also be helping create one of its most important growth industries.
The biotechnology race is frequently portrayed as a contest between the United States and China. But a deeper reality sits underneath that competition.
Demographics may prove as important to biotechnology as data is to artificial intelligence. China’s aging population is often viewed as a liability. It may also become one of the country’s most powerful engines of innovation.
Damien Ng, PhD, is a Zurich-based executive director at Julius Baer, specializing in longevity, demographics and future health. He is a contributor to IMD’s 2026 Future of Life Sciences Report. His work has appeared in Asia Times, LSE Business Review and The Business Times.
