If you do not follow the Twitter feed of the Ukrainian Third Army Corps, you should. It does not tweet a great deal, but when it does, especially recently, it has been fascinating. For those of you who do not know of it, the Third Corps is one of the best units in the Ukrainian military and has been playing a lead role in the Vivaldi counteroffensive. This is the military operation that has been pushing the Russians back from around Lyman in Donetsk Oblast.
The Third Corps in the last week has given some fascinating glimpses into where the land war is right now. Specifically, it shows how more and more jobs are being given to machines in the war, and indeed what that means. It is of course a strictly curated glimpse, but it is illuminating nonetheless.
And the Third Corps is not alone in this discussion. More and more Ukrainian sources are being open about this transition. And they should be. This is not something that they are bringing in on some recent whim. It has been the plan for a long time, a Ukrainian response to the changing conditions on the battlefield and the need to preserve manpower. When American and some European analysts were screaming at the Ukrainians that they were going to run out of soldiers and needed to draft all their young people, starting in 2024 and reaching a crescendo in 2025, the Ukrainians adapted and started finding a technological solution to the situation.
Having machines fight, not men, is not just the Ukrainian goal, it has actually been the goal of intelligent strategists and war-fighters over the last century – as I tried to make clear in 2024 and 2025.
By the way, we are now at the beginning of this process, not the end. More and more jobs will be taken from humans and handed to machines or robots.
And this also points to the second story in this update. That is the Russian campaign that has been most effective and probably will continue to be. It is not the Russian land offensive, and it is not the Russian criminal bombardment of Ukrainian civilians. It is the Russian long-range attack on Ukrainian economic/productive targets. This is the one to watch and this is the one that the USA has enabled by its actions.
Finally, Trump told the Ukrainians they are the ones who need to settle with Putin – after inviting Putin to the G20 summit in the USA. He also pulled the rug out from Ukraine after Zelensky (foolishly) said he had a “final” promise from Trump for a license to build Patriot interceptors.
How’s that pivot going for you?
An army of robots
Mykhailo Fedorov reappeared in the last few days. It was not about some return to his position as minister of defense, but it was to put stress on what he called the transition to an “army of robots.” He gave an overview of what this means and why it is important – complete with a slick video.
What Fedorov was talking about was as much the future as the present – there were visions of humanoid robots operating in trenches – but the present is enough for now. This week we had stories of maybe the most striking example of machines being used to fight human beings, when it turned out that the Ukrainians had combined two of the most dynamically developing unmanned vehicles, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), to help retake land.
What the Ukrainians did was use UAVs (drones) to drop UGVs (think small, cheap, robotic vehicles) behind Russian lines to cause chaos. Third Corps disclosed that the operation took place on September 20, and that it was a remarkable success. The commander of Third Corps, to make the lifesaving part of the process central, made this claim:
Infantry wins wars, but we protect our infantry, so robots go to the enemy first.
What the air-dropped UGVs did was track down Russian soldiers behind the front, which led to faster Ukrainian advances from the front. The Telegraph is the only outlet that provided a narrative of these operations in English, and you can access a free version through Yahoo at this link.
Once you add fighting to the list, you can see where this is going.
While it is difficult to judge exactly how this has all worked within Vivaldi, it is clear that the Ukrainians see this as a key part of their success. They claim, and it seems plausible, that in going forward they have caused a large number of casualties to the Russians, and have lost relatively fewer themselves.
That would be notable in the context of this war, where advancing has been increasingly expensive in human lives.
As for Vivaldi, the Ukrainians are still not being too revealing about their advances. Deep State has only a relatively small area changing hands from Russia to Ukraine around Lyman in the last week. Here was the situation on 18 September (see the blue area to the north of Lyman).
Here is the most up to date picture of the same area (with distances)
However, quite credible reports are being circulated that the Russians have been pushed entirely out of Lyman. Actually, one of the most interesting sources we have for this is Russian milbloggers, who are getting a little panicky at what is happening. The well-known Russian “Rybar” account has a much more optimistic map for the Ukrainians, which has them retaking a great deal more land to the north of Lyman reaching to and even over the body of water north of Zarichne.
I actually reached out to a Ukrainian whom I trust and who has excellent knowledge of these things. I specifically asked about the differences between the Russian and Ukrainian maps of this area, and whether the Russian ones with deeper Ukrainian advances might be the reality. I was told, in response, that this was “highly likely.”
That does not mean definite, mind you, but this person does not exaggerate. Believe me.
So Vivaldi is ongoing, the Ukrainians are being open about how they are fighting it and what they want to do going forward, and they seem to be making advances. Still, we need to damp down talk of Ukrainian breakthroughs or fast advances. This is not the war we are in (at present). However, in moving forward in this way, the Ukrainians are innovating at a much faster pace than the Russians, and that is notable.
The only other thing I want to say about this campaign is that its success and the overall Russian failure on the front line have been greatly aided by the ongoing Ukrainian mid-range strike campaign on Russian logistics. This has receded from the news in the last few weeks, but it is ongoing and taking a real toll on Russian supply and movement behind the lines. What it means is that the Russians are struggling in their reaction speed to Ukrainian moves. That extra time is vital.
So do not forget about mid-range strike in all of this. It is a holistic effort against the Russian war machine.
Russia’s most effective campaign
Russia’s most effective campaign received some coverage this week, and so it is worth reflecting upon. This is definitely not what is happening on the front line, for the reasons we see above. Nor, I would argue, is it the terror bombing of Ukrainian civilians. That is making life harder, no doubt, but it is not cracking Ukrainian resolve to fight and survive. It is, if anything, reinforcing what the Ukrainians know about what Putin has in store for them if he wins the war.
So if the Russians are struggling at the front and they are not cracking Ukrainian morale (and they are struggling in the war at sea as well – more on that in upcoming updates), what are they succeeding at?
The answer to this is their war against Ukrainian economic production – in particular the type that is needed to replenish the Ukrainian war machine. This past week has brought out a few stories about one industry in particular – Ukraine’s steel industry.
That is not unbelievable. Steel works are large and complex, and cannot be moved easily – in other words they are excellent targets (like Russian oil refineries). With the Ukrainians struggling mightily with air defense, it seems that the Russians believe that they can now devastate this industry.
The evidence is there that they have for now. One of Ukraine’s largest steel works, the ArcelorMittal plant at Kryvyi Rih, has been struck both a week ago and in August. It recently confirmed to the Ukrainian government that it is not operational. The costs of lost production and rebuilding the plant alone could reach $1 billion.
The Zaporizhstal (Metinvest) steel plant in Zaporizhzhia has been out of action since August. There are others.
If you are fighting a war of robots, steel is rather important (as is aluminum and other metals). These kinds of attacks will actually destroy more Ukrainian military production than the Russian army can in the field.
This is just one industry. The Russians have been going after Ukrainian warehouse space for a while, and recently they have done great damage. In just the last few months alone, it is estimated that they have destroyed 900,000 square meters of warehouse area.
All of this is causing problems. Ukrainians are having to buy steel from outside the country, which is expensive and requires shipping costs in (and the Russians are attacking railways). So costs are going up and production is being limited. This is why this campaign against Ukrainian production is actually the most effective one that the Russians are waging.
The problem the Ukrainians will face/are facing is that while they are showing signs of improving their interception rates against the jet-powered Gerans, they still can do little against Russian ballistic missiles because of US policy.
This is actually where Ukraine’s European partners will have to step up even more. Europe has the economic muscle to counter this Russian campaign, but it will not be cheap and time is of the essence.
The Trump rehabilitation campaign continues
Sometimes Donald Trump’s love of Vladimir Putin just cannot be repressed. Even though he knows he should try to keep it under wraps for political needs, his heart is so full of devotion and dedication for the Russian dictator that it forces him to sing loudly and publicly. This was one of those weeks when Trump just could not contain himself.
First, he had the US government extend an official invitation to Putin to attend the upcoming G20 summit in Miami. This will be Putin’s first formal invitation to such an event since the full-scale invasion was launched.
Trump went out of his way to show how determined he was to have Putin come. He sent out Marco Rubio (remember when L’il Marco was going to be the firm pro-Ukraine voice in the administration?) to explain the invitation and say how much the US wanted Putin there. According to Rubio, this was part of a full rehabilitation moment of Putin.
“We think it’s an opportunity for him to engage not just with [Trump] but with other world leaders. We hope that’s an invitation he’ll accept.”
The Ukrainians have not stopped, it should be noted.
The US attempt to rehabilitate Putin and protect Russia from attacks is the basic mind-set of Trump and through him the administration. In his view, it is Ukraine that is the problem. If only Ukraine would stop fighting back, the world would be a better place.
He really believes this, and as always is stringing the Ukrainians along to make them agree to the most pro-Putin deal possible. Here is a taster: When Trump and Zelensky talked on the phone a few days ago, Zelensky seemed to believe that Trump had (once again) promised him that Ukraine would soon get a license to build Patriot missiles. The Ukrainian president said that Trump had made a “final” decision to give Ukraine the license.
Zelensky is actually being a bit of a fool in making these claims now. It is counterproductive. The Ukrainians should just keep quiet until there is actually a license given and a construction plan underway.
The Ukrainians are being played, but they keep falling for it. What Trump is doing is stringing them along, delaying any real aid for Ukraine and allowing the Russians to keep up their ranged campaign. He is rehabilitating Putin and the Ukrainians have to keep from helping him do that.
Phillips O’Brien is a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrew. This article, which first appeared in Phillips’s Newsletter, is republished with permission.
