Japan’s no longer ambiguous stance on Taiwan

Against the backdrop of rising threats, Japan has gradually remilitarized its self-defense forces (JSDF) to prepare for sudden contingencies. Meanwhile, after several decades of stagnation, Taiwan is taking its defense seriously. This comes as China’s military grows its own capabilities, which could be used against the self-governing island in the future.

On November 7, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that any use of military force by China against Taiwan would be considered a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, prompting Tokyo to consider deploying its defense apparatus.

Tokyo’s 2025 position is broader than that of other regional actors regarding the defense and sovereignty of Taipei, a shift that will likely affect Beijing’s strategies of coercion and aggressive maritime maneuvers.

Japan’s new Taiwan stance

Japan’s stance, once ambiguous, is now explicit: an attack on Taiwan will be regarde as an attack on Japanese maritime, economic and security interests.

During the Lower House Budget Committee, Takaichi clarified that her remarks were part of a broader strategy aligned with prior Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) PMs, such as the now-deceased Shinzo Abe, who introduced collective self-defense in 2015.

However, according to the Asahi publication, Takaichi’s stance differs from Abe’s, as the late prime minister never stated that an invasion or blockade of Taiwan would have warranted a Japanese military response.

Previously, Japan was unclear about whether it would intervene if Taiwan came under military pressure from China. In the specific case of a Chinese navy (PLAN) military blockade, Japan considers the wartime scenario existential, meaning the JSDF would have to respond with various measures.

The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) would be tasked with the evacuation of Japanese citizens and essential personnel, such as members of the Taiwanese parliament and prominent dissidents. If China’s warships threatened evacuations, the JMSDF could respond militarily with proportional force.

Simultaneously, if a PRC blockade were to take effect, Japan would allow US forces to operate in its maritime space, while also providing logistics and various forms of intelligence.

China’s pushback

Beijing has responded strongly to Takaichi’s comments, resulting in firm diplomatic pushback. Shortly after the remarks became public, the Chinese Consul General of Osaka, Xue Jian, posted a now-deleted threat implying beheading directed at the Japanese prime minister on Twitter/X.

China formally summoned Japanese Ambassador Kenji Kanasugi in response to Takaichi’s stance. The Chinese foreign ministry warned Japan to “stop playing with fire” and said that Beijing would view intervention in Taiwan as an “act of aggression.” Later, the Chinese Vice Foreign Minister also summoned Kanasugi to urge a retraction of Takaichi’s comments, but Kanasugi refused.

On Friday, November 14, China’s Defense Ministry escalated with more veiled threats by stating Japan would suffer a “crushing defeat” if the JSDF intervenes in a potential war over Taiwan. Both Beijing and Tokyo are increasingly expanding their military capabilities through navies, air forces, precision missiles and technology.

Japan’s ruling LDP is preparing proposals in response to China’s threats, including possibly expelling the Chinese Consul General in Osaka. Other Japanese parties condemn Beijing’s inflammatory rhetoric, seeing it as harmful to future relations.

The United States has expressed support for Japan and condemned the provocations directed at its close ally. US Ambassador to Japan, George Glass, characterized the episode as another example of Beijing’s coercive diplomacy, stating, “the mask slips again.”

He further commented on China’s diplomatic approach, stating, “time for Beijing to behave like the good neighbor it repeatedly talks about but fails to become.”

Existential angst

Taiwan lies south of Japan and is close to key shipping lanes. If its sovereignty is threatened by a Chinese military blockade, Japan would face an existential threat to its economy. Japan is already struggling with a demographic crisis, stagnant wages and high national debt. Over $5 trillion in Japanese imports and exports pass through maritime shipping lanes.

Secondly, Chinese dominance around the Taiwan Strait, or a full capitulation by Taipei, would be dire for the allied US containment strategy in the Indo-Pacific, of which Japan is part. Taiwan is part of the ‘First Island Chain’ strategy that negates the freedom of movement of China’s nuclear submarines in the region.

If Taiwan were blockaded and fell, a breakout of the PLAN would occur. Beijing could then threaten Tokyo’s vital shipping lanes in the Philippines and South China Sea. Rising PLAN capabilities were a major factor in the new defense pact between the Philippines and Japan. This pact was solidified in September 2025.

Furthermore, Tokyo recognizes the existential threat Beijing faces towards its own Economic Exclusion Zone (EEZ)—particularly in the vicinity of the Senkaku Islands. If Taipei were to fall, Beijing could allocate even greater naval resources towards the East and South China Sea to force Tokyo into a state of economic coercion.

China’s wargaming strategy

A Chinese direct invasion or blockade of Taiwan will require amphibious and aerial assets that would dwarf the D-Day landings. Because of this scenario, China will need every resource it can muster without diverting defense assets to other critical theaters, which a new Japan contingency can hinder.

The PLAN is preparing for the possibility of American intervention, given that US policy towards Taiwan’s security remains officially ambiguous, though the issue is vital to Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy and economic interests.

However, the PLAN must now account for Japanese involvement. As previously mentioned, the JMSDF would participate in evacuating Japanese citizens and prominent Taiwanese officers, politicians and activists, but Tokyo could also use its navy in other ways against the PLAN.

A US war game plan is to block PRC energy imports through the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea to force Beijing to withdraw from an assault on Taipei. The JMSDF could also take part in economic blockades around these areas if the Taiwan emergency threatens Tokyo’s own maritime and economic security.

If the United States decided not to intervene in a Taiwan emergency because of growing support for isolationism at home, while Japan acted immediately, China would still face a difficult dilemma. China would fear that Japan’s actions could become the catalyst for US involvement.

Currently, over 55,000 American military personnel are in Japan (USFJ). Exercises, cooperation, logistics and intelligence sharing between the US and the JSDF take place weekly. Any Chinese strike on JSDF bases during a Taiwan emergency risks striking US forces in Japan, directly or indirectly. This could immediately draw an ambiguous America into the war.

Diplomatic and hybrid escalation

Beijing will likely pressure Tokyo to reverse its Taiwan policy using several means. On November 15, China advised its citizens to avoid travel to Japan, which could reduce tourism and limit work opportunities for Chinese expats. However, this policy could also worsen Japan’s labor shortages, as it partially relies on Chinese workers.

Measures taken by Beijing could affect Japan’s economy but also reinforce domestic support for Takaichi, whose approval rating is already among the highest since Shinzo Abe’s administration.

According to a Kyodo News public opinion poll, 48% of Japanese netizens support collective defense in a Taiwan emergency, a high for Japan that could further increase Takaichi’s approval rating.

Beijing could seek to increase pressure on Japanese society to prompt Takaichi and the Diet to reconsider their policy, potentially through further maritime activities near the Ryukyu Islands under the pretext of “fishing vessels” or by employing Chinese Coast Guard tactics. Similar tactics have been used against the Philippines and Vietnam.

China could also utilize proxies such as North Korea with missile tests over the Sea of Japan that will test the will and endurance of the Japanese government. There are fears that Beijing will use Pyongyang as a proxy over Seoul’s growing Jeju Island naval command task force, and Tokyo can expect the same hybrid tactics.

Lastly, Japan’s Public Security Intelligence Agency (PSIA) will be on high alert for acts of espionage and sabotage if tensions with China continue to escalate. Taiwan itself is dealing with several thousand potential Chinese agents who could enact hybrid warfare on the island to soften up an invasion, and likewise, threats of incapacitation of critical infrastructure and sea cables could happen to Japan during an emergency contingency.

Takaichi and the Japanese Diet face a critical foreign policy challenge with the Taiwan emergency contingency. In response, China may employ hybrid warfare tactics, economic measures and disinformation campaigns. Japan’s new stance now requires Beijing to prepare for the possibility of both Japanese and American intervention.

Julian McBride is a defense analyst and contributing editor at 19FortyFive.