Taiwan’s 40th Han Kuang military exercise, its most extensive to date, spans ten days and simulates a full-scale Chinese invasion. The drills incorporate amphibious assaults, joint-force coordination and extensive civilian-military integration across multiple domains.
Taiwan is also showcasing enhanced deterrent capabilities with US-supplied HIMARS rocket systems, F-16V fighter jets and indigenous Sky Sword II and Sky Bow III missile systems.
The activation of 22,000 reservists marks an unprecedented expansion of national defense mobilization, signaling Taiwan’s growing commitment to preparing for conflict rather than merely deterring it.
This shift is a direct response to the People’s Liberation Army’s increasingly aggressive behavior. Gray-zone coercion has become routine. PLA aircraft and naval incursions across the Taiwan Strait’s median line surged from 565 in 2022 to over 3,070 in 2024, an average of more than eight per day.
In January 2025 alone, Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone recorded 248 crossings by China, which represents a 75% increase compared to January 2022.
These provocations are designed to wear down Taiwan’s defenses without crossing the threshold into open conflict, reflecting China’s long-term strategy of psychological pressure, strategic normalization and the gradual erosion of Taiwan’s sovereignty through fatigue.
But Taiwan is no longer waiting passively for external support. It is building an active and layered defense strategy in anticipation of a volatile future. This recalibration has drawn attention from Taiwan’s strategic partners, particularly Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) members.
Originally conceived as a maritime security initiative, the QUAD has evolved into a broader Indo-Pacific framework committed to ensuring a free, open and rules-based regional order. Yet the Taiwan question exposes the bloc’s limitations.
Unlike NATO, the QUAD is not a military alliance. Still, the urgency of Taiwan’s situation has sparked debate over whether the group should develop a more coherent strategy for collective deterrence.
US President Donald Trump recently called for greater clarity from Australia and Japan regarding their roles in a potential Taiwan conflict. The Pentagon is also actively working to align operational plans with allies, particularly Japan and Australia, through behind-the-scenes consultations and strategic dialogues. However, progress remains slow, hindered by political constraints and divergent national priorities.
Japan has strengthened its defense posture, increasing its budget from 6.8 trillion yen in 2023 to 8.7 trillion yen in 2025, or 1.8% of GDP. It has expanded joint drills with the United States and is reassessing its strategic doctrines.
However, constitutional limits and public ambivalence remain obstacles. A survey by the Asahi Shimbun newspaper found that 62% of Japanese citizens consider a regional conflict likely, yet a majority prefer neutrality and global cooperation, with only 18.7% supporting closer alignment with the United States.
Australia has also adopted a cautious approach. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s recent six-day visit to China highlights his government’s dual-track strategy of deepening US defense ties while preserving strong economic relations with China. Amid US calls for clarity on Taiwan, the Australian government stated that “it would not commit troops in advance to any potential conflict.”
The stakes are significant. Australian exports to China reached AUD196 billion last year, exceeding the combined total of Australia’s next four largest markets. Curtin University estimates that Australia’s trade with China contributes an additional AUD2,600 to the average household income each year.
In contrast, recent tariffs imposed by the United States average around 10%, while those under the China–Australia Free Trade Agreement remain at just 1.1%. This disparity has strengthened the perception of China as a more stable and economically reliable partner for Australia.
India, by contrast, continues to maintain deliberate silence on Taiwan, consistent with its longstanding recognition of the One China policy since 1949. Even amid rising cross-Strait tensions, it has avoided statements in forums such as ASEAN, reflecting a strategic calculation to avoid provoking China, especially given their unresolved border disputes in the Himalayas.
At the same time, India has steadily expanded its engagement with Taiwan. Companies like Foxconn and Pegatron are integral to Make in India and Atmanirbhar Bharat programs, and bilateral trade has increased sixfold since 2001. Talks on a free trade agreement and semiconductor cooperation are also progressing.
A conflict in the Taiwan Strait would severely disrupt global supply chains and pose significant economic risks, which India increasingly recognizes.
While the July 2025 QUAD Foreign Ministers’ meeting expressed “serious concerns” over rising tensions in the East and South China Seas, it refrained from directly condemning China. Strategic and economic divergences within the QUAD underscore its central dilemma.
The QUAD was never designed for collective military action and lacks both the institutional structure and legally binding mutual defense commitments that define NATO. However, China’s growing assertiveness over Taiwan and its expanding capabilities demand a more coordinated response.
Even as public statements remain measured, the QUAD must avoid strategic drift to remain relevant. Coordinated efforts in contingency planning, intelligence sharing and logistical interoperability need to accelerate. The QUAD’s credibility, and that of the broader rules-based order, depends on readiness and sustained alignment.
China will continue to test the QUAD’s cohesion, but this also presents an opportunity to forge a more adaptable and politically viable model of deterrence, one rooted in regional awareness, interoperability and expanding partnerships, particularly with ASEAN.
Taiwan is no longer a peripheral concern. It has become the crucible in which the QUAD’s purpose and unity will be tested. As pressure mounts in the Taiwan Strait, the time for strategic ambiguity is narrowing. The stability of the Indo-Pacific may well depend on the QUAD’s ability to adapt, align and act with resolve.
Rishab Rathi is a research assistant at the Centre of Policy Research and Governance (CPRG), leading the Conflict Studies vertical with a special emphasis on South Asia. With an academic background in international relations and political science, his work explores geopolitical dynamics, post-colonial governance and conflict resolution across diverse global contexts.
At least the author admits that he is Indian unlike little rooster and India Joe
Despite the very serious threat Taiwan faces one notes it has still not gone on a full war footing . Its conscription, system is still peacetime in nature. Its air force is outdated and in urgent need of several squadrons of F35. Further , much like most of Nato, its anti missile/drone capability is very basic considering the country is likely to face a similar preliminary missile attack as Israel has faced. One seriously wonders if Taiwan will actually defend itself!
Taiwan is not getting F35s. Someone please remind me why we need to ‘defend’ Taiwan with blood and treasure once the chip plants ramp up in Arizona.
Australia has no navy. Japan is struggling to survive. India has no idea what it’s doing. The Russians keep talking about an India Russia China alliance to mess things up and remind the West that India may need to be contained as well (which is already happening). If there is a contingency it will be (shock) USA that needs to do all the heavy lifting.
Another piece of junk from someone who either doesn’t understand or ignores the fact that Taiwan is part of China. He should have checked the UN charter on this before jumping on the keyboard.
That UN charter that is very very selective and in live sessions never mentioned the dreaded word “Hamas/PIJ”
Another Think Tank ‘wala’ who wishes to transform Taiwan into an Asian Ukraine.
Just more delusion from out of India I suppose.
Great opportunity to sell more high priced stuff. The last thing Taiwan needs is a Western sponsored war with China.
whatever the author smoke, I want it. Or maybe it is just magic mushroom. Whatever, it certainly can make you feel good while falling from 40th floor, LMAO.