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A little disturbance?
David Goldman assesses the mounting risks of a US economic downturn, with the Atlanta Fed forecasting a 2.85% contraction in Q2 GDP. Trump’s proposed tariffs could further disrupt the economy, with estimates suggesting a 5% rise in consumer prices if foreign exporters pass on half the costs.
DeepSeek going nationwide in China
Scott Foster analyzes the growing significance of DeepSeek, China’s open-source AI model. Already integrated into at least 20 state-owned enterprises spanning energy, telecom, finance, and construction, DeepSeek is also being adopted for military applications.
The end of the German debt break and Europe’s military build-up
Diego Faßnacht analyzes a historic shift in Germany and the EU’s fiscal and defense policies, marked by unprecedented debt expansion and military spending. At the EU level, Ursula von der Leyen’s ReArm Europe plan proposes up to €800 billion in defense investment.
How the US-Ukraine rift boosts Russia’s position
James Davis analyzes the fallout from a disastrous Oval Office meeting between Trump and Zelensky. With Europe unable to fully replace US support, Ukraine now faces a precarious strategic position as Russia prepares for further escalation.