The Israel-Hamas ceasefire in the Gaza Strip war is slowly disintegrating with daily small-scale breaches in the battered coastal enclave. Should the currently low-intensity warfare boil over, it would jeopardize a three-pronged peace plan announced this month by US President Donald Trump.
The ceasefire is designed first to facilitate the freeing of numerous Israeli hostages held in Gaza by Hamas, the Islamic terrorist group, in exchange for scores of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli custody.
Those initial exchanges, now underway, are meant to lead next month to full exchanges of captives and a withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, to be later followed by a permanent truce and talks to end the war entirely.
But the violence, though much reduced in comparison to the months of warfare that began on October 7, 2023, alarms United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres.
“We must avoid at all costs the resumption of hostilities in Gaza that would lead to an immense tragedy,” Guterres warned on the social media platform X. “Both sides must fully abide by their commitments in the ceasefire agreement and resume serious negotiations.”
Gaza’s simmering violence is not the only element that could sink the ceasefire, observers contend. Trump himself seemed to undermine the process in comments he made last week on the means of ending fighting and goals thereafter.
He proposed to ferry the entire population of Gaza into Egypt and Jordan, take control of the seaside territory and turn it into a resort akin to the French Riviera. Washington pundits called it Mat-a-Gaza, a spoof on the name of his private Florida resort, Mar-a-Lago.
“The ceasefire has always been extremely fragile. It’s more so now,” said Girogio Calfiero, who heads Gulf State Analytics, a Washington-based consulting firm. “You have to question what is the motivation for continuing the ceasefire if the ultimate goal is a mass ethnic cleansing campaign, in which more than two million Palestinians are forced into Egypt and Jordan.”
“It gives us good reason to worry about the ceasefire,” he concluded.
Cairo, Amman and regional US allies reject the ideas, crucially as does Hamas. Nevertheless, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is peddling the idea during a Middle East trip that began Tuesday (February 18).
One key US ally has looked favorably on Trump’s population transplant pitch: Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu. He called it “bold” and said he hoped to work with Trump to make it happen.
Rubio, who was standing with the Israeli leader during a joint press conference, said that Hamas “must be eradicated,” without explaining why, therefore, it should keep talking.
Despite the hawkish comments, US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, who is leading the mediation efforts, said talks on phase two of the ceasefire are continuing this week.
In any event, the uptick of violence seemed an open mockery of the ceasefire. Last Sunday, an Israeli drone strike targeted and killed Hamas police while they were guarding humanitarian aid trucks near Gaza’s southern border with Egypt.
On Tuesday, Israeli news outlets published reports of soldiers using Palestinians as “human shields” by forcing them to walk ahead of soldiers on patrol in Gaza. Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur for the Palestinian areas, criticized the incident as “human shielding in action.”
A ceasefire in Lebanon, which mirrors the Gaza accord, is also in danger of collapse. The Shiite Muslim militia Hezbollah had earlier launched rockets into northern Israel in support of Hamas in Gaza. Israel eventually invaded the Hezbollah stronghold in south Lebanon, and still keeps soldiers there.
This week, Israeli jets bombarded sites across the south of Lebanon. Israeli officials say the action is designed to hit Hezbollah positions and arms depots.
Because of the Hezbollah threat, displaced Lebanese civilians are forbidden from returning to evacuated areas without Israel’s permission, the officials said.
On cue, Israeli forces shot dead an unarmed Lebanese woman who was trying to approach her home in the far south to see if it was damaged during the fighting, according to news reports.
Israeli also announced that its troops will not abandon five military posts it has set up in southern Lebanon. The troops were supposed to have left the region on January 26, a deadline that was set in negotiations with the Lebanese government.
Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun demanded that Israel “abide by the ceasefire agreement, and withdraw on the specified date.” He called on peace mediators—diplomats from the United States and Qatar – to “fulfill their responsibilities and assist us.”
The UN also asked Israel to leave. “Another delay in this process is not what we hoped would happen,” read a statement by a UN special coordinator in charge of trying to keep peace in the country, “not least because it continues a violation of United Nations Security Council resolution 1701.”
There is yet another ongoing conflict connected to the Gaza war but which is not covered by a ceasefire: warfare in the West Bank. Israeli raids into rebellious Palestinian cities—notably the central towns of Tukaram, Jenin and Nablus—are ongoing.
Low-intensity battles began in the West Bank two months before Hamas’ October 7, 2023, invasion of southern Israel. It threatens to become yet another theater of devastation without concentrated diplomacy to stop the violence.
Mr. Williams article is focused on achieving a lasting ceasefire, which is “fragile” and could “sink”. It is worth reminding readers that there was a “lasting ceasefire” between Hamas and Israel. Until October 7.
There have been many such ceasefires over the past decades. All exploded, excuse the term, when Hamas attacked Israel. A ceasefire is not worth pursuing for itself. Something basic has to change. That something basic is: Hamas needs to go.
For those who think “well, maybe Israel should do X, Y or Z”- a reminder: Israel already did X Y and Z. Israel left Gaza in 2005, as a first step in an overall peace initiative, only to have Hamas take over, and bring us to this sorry situation.