Wishful Chinese see possible Trump 2.0 window to resolve Taiwan

The victory of Donald Trump in the United States presidential election on November 5 is no good news to Sino-US trade relations but may open a window for the discussion of China’s reunification with Taiwan, according to some Chinese commentators and media.

Since Trump won the election, Western media have been eager to know Beijing’s stances on the Ukrainian-Russia war, a possible 60% tariff to be imposed on Chinese goods and Taiwan matters.

Mao Ning, a spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, set official lines on the three issues by saying that:

• China stays neutral on the Ukrainian crisis and supports all efforts that are conducive to the political settlement of the crisis.
• China does not answer hypothetical questions about new US tariffs but it wants to reiterate that there is no winner in a trade war, nor does the world benefit from a trade war.
• The Taiwan question is the most important and most sensitive issue in China-US relations, and China firmly opposes official interactions of any form between the US and Taiwan.

On November 7, Chinese President Xi Jinping extended congratulations to Trump on his election as the 47th US President. 

Xi said China and the US should find the right way to get along in the new era, so as to benefit both countries and the wider world.

”History teaches that China and the US gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation,” said Xi. ”A stable, sound and sustainable China-US relationship serves the two countries’ shared interests and meets the aspiration of the international community.”

Lack of optimism

It’s been eft to pundits to observe that Xi’s and Mao’s official words, while polite, by no means add up to a resounding cheer.

“Compared with the last ones in 2016, the Chinese leader’s latest congratulations to Trump have skipped the pleasantries,” Hua Dianlong, a Hubei-based columnist, says in an article published on November 7.

This, Hua adds, shows that “China is not optimistic about the continuous development of Sino-US relations. The change in wordings has shown the reality.”

“Before Trump won the election in 2016, China and the US had maintained a good relationship,” Hua says. But now with his re-election in 2024, “Sino-US relations have reached a historic low point. We are very vigilant in the face of Trump coming to power again.”

He says an intensifying trade war between China and the US and the United States’ continued efforts to contain China seem to be inevitable.

But, like some other commentators, Hua thinks there is a possible ray of light. The Taiwan issue, he says, may be a topic for Beijing and Washington to use to break the deadlock as Trump has a different mindset from the Biden-Harris administration.  

Liang Xun, a Henan-based writer likewise looking for a bright spot, says in an article that the Chinese leader’s congratulations to Trump can be summed up in one Chinese word – cooperation.

“In the Trump 2.0 era, the US will not change its overall stance of suppressing China, and may even strengthen its competition and confrontation against China and bring numerous challenges and pressures to the Chinese economy,” she says.

“But Trump may have to seek China’s diplomatic support to fulfill its promise of ending the Ukraine war,” she adds. “On the Taiwan question, Trump may adopt a relatively pragmatic stance and avoid taking drastic actions to prevent the situation in the Taiwan Strait from escalating.”

She says she made this conclusion as Trump has repeatedly urged Taiwan to pay “protection fees.” 

“Taiwan should pay us for defense. You know, we’re no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything,” Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek in an interview in July. 

Trump also accused Taiwan of having taken “almost 100%” of the chip sector from the US. But some chip experts countered that Taiwan had paid great efforts to develop its chip industry.

Protection fees

Last month, Trump told the Wall Street Journal that if China goes into Taiwan, the US will impose 150-to-200% tariffs on Chinese goods. 

Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO), said on October 30 that the US will always pursue “America first” and that Taiwan could go from being a pawn to an outcast at any time.

Some Chinese commentators said China will benefit from Trump’s Taiwan policy. 

Yan Mo, a columnist of Guancha.cn, writes in an article that the US can charge Taiwan “protection fees” either by forcing the island to buy more weapons from America, or using tariffs to force Taiwanese chipmakers to invest more in or relocate to the US.

“In the past few years, Biden had successfully lured the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) to build foundries in Arizona for US$65 billion,” Yan says. “But such investment will not be enough to satisfy Trump’s appetite, what he wants is Taiwan’s entire electronic supply chain.”

“After Trump has sucked all the industrial power out of the island, it’ll be time for mainland China to make its move – forcing Taiwan to discuss reunification,” Yan says. 

He says that Trump will avoid increasing arms sales to Taiwan as he knows this would trigger Beijing’s attack on the island, a situation that would cost the US a lot more money. He concludes that the Trump 2.0 era may be an opportunity for China to resolve the Taiwan matters. 

Of course, not everyone agrees with Yan’s prediction.  

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai, for one, has said that Taiwan is willing to take on more responsibility and would defend itself. 

Yong Jian is a contributor to the Asia Times. He is a Chinese journalist who specializes in Chinese technology, economy and politics.