SINGAPORE – With America’s election day nearly here, governments and businesses across Asia are preparing for the next US administration. Many experts presume Harris-Walz would be a continuation of the incumbent Biden-Harris government and Trump 2.0 would be like Trump 1.0.
True, a Kamala Harris victory would see a continuation of the traditional US approach to foreign policy of working with partners and allies to best advance the US national interest – President Donald Trump’s first term excepted.
Many believe Trump’s return to the Oval Office would see a continuation of his “America First” foreign policy, which views the world through a narrow bilateral lens.
Bilahari Kausikan, former permanent secretary of Singapore’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs, predicts countries in the region would be well prepared for a second Trump term after living through the first one.
“The Trump administration wasn’t all bad. True, his walking away from the TPP was a shock that still reverberates, but we adapted through the CPTPP and RCEP,” he wrote, referring to regional trade pacts. “The world did not end. And some of the things Trump did to restore the credibility of American hard power were certainly in our interest.”
“President [Barack] Obama made prettier speeches, but President Trump understood — perhaps instinctively— hard power better,” he added.
True, Trump’s America First approach did have successes, in large part because his administration had talented and effective officials, political appointees and career officials working to implement his policies.
A second Trump term, however, would likely not have that same level of expertise or experience behind him.
Questions of loyalty
When entering the US government, one takes an oath of office to “support and defend the Constitution of the United States.” During Trump’s first term, many of his appointees took that oath seriously.
Key examples included Vice President Mike Pence, Defense Secretaries James Mattis and Mark Esper, and Chief of Staff John Kelly.
Further, dedicated career government officials supported the implementation of Trump’s policies and made them effective and in line with US law, even if they did not personally agree with certain of them.
In a second Trump term, such officials – political and career – will be largely missing. When discussing how a second Trump administration would be staffed, Howard Lutnick, Trump 2024 transition team co-chair, said prospective appointees will only be tapped if they prove “loyalty” to the former president.
Presumably, this means the type of people who were responsible for the achievements of the first Trump term, such as reviving the Quad partnership in 2017 to counter China militarily and diplomatically in the Indo-Pacific region and implementing Trump’s trade war in response to actions by Beijing, will be gone.
RINOs — Republicans in Name Only — will not be tolerated under a Trump 2.0 administration. Recognizing that no one party has a monopoly over lousy choices for political appointees, making loyalty to Trump a requirement for political appointments will necessarily diminish the caliber of his administration.
In the last few months of his first term, Trump issued an Executive Order giving himself new powers to replace thousands of federal workers, including many who work on foreign policy and national security. He did this to eliminate what he deemed the “Deep State.”
What every other administration considered to be dedicated career public servants who worked with political appointees to best implement each administration’s policy goals consistent with US law, Trump seems to see as a group of liberal bureaucrats and officials blocking his ability to dictate government policies.
He issued the order to demolish the “Deep State” to give him the power to replace career officials with loyalists. President Joe Biden rescinded the order upon taking office, but Trump would likely resuscitate it as one of his first acts in executive power.
The demolition work to come under Trump 2.0 is already being done. While legally a non-profit, non-partisan institute, The America First Policy Institute (AFPI) is led and staffed by officials in Trump’s first term and serves as his government-in-waiting.
This writer has had five meetings with AFPI representatives. In my interactions, its staff have been open to dialogue with US business community representatives. I found many of them smart, dedicated and well-prepared, and I have no doubt they would be effective if in government.
AFPI’s policy book states, “Agencies should be free to remove employees for any non-discriminatory reason, with no external appeals.” That means political appointees could fire civil servants for literally any reason, including for defying Trump if they thought his actions illegal or unconstitutional, or for speaking out on government positions they contest, like climate change denial.
If Trump wins a second term, he is not expected to be hands-on in managing foreign policy, meaning diplomatic and national security personnel will be highly responsible for policy.
“The key will be who gets the portfolios to manage issues in the region,” Mike McCurry, White House press secretary under President Bill Clinton who also worked at the State Department, told this writer.
“The career foreign service officers and civil servants I worked with at State were uniformly dedicated to fulfilling administration policies and directives. Losing them will impact the US ability to achieve its foreign policy goals,” McCurry said.
“For the political appointees, I am guessing that those who might be qualified are going to stay away, and those who get jobs will be marginally qualified, and it will take them a year or two to have an impact, but they will,” he added.
Enter the ‘Shallow State’
“As someone who has invested more than 40 years in understanding Asia and thinking about what is best for the region, including 30 years specifically charged with promoting US interests there, I find anxiety about the existence of a ‘Deep State’ of experienced and hard-working people working for America to be most curious,” Kurt Tong, a former career foreign service officer who served as US ambassador to APEC and US consul-general to Hong Kong, told this writer.
“Do we want a ‘Shallow State’ in Washington? Why would that be a good thing? It seems the ‘Deep State’ has served political leaders from both parties well,” he added.
If Trump wins, many expect an exodus of the types of career officials needed to devise and implement policy effectively. If so, they will take with them decades of experience and relationships.
This will not only diminish expertise in policy-making and implementation but will also impact regional officials who have invested years in building relationships with their counterparts in Washington, DC, who until now have remained from administration to administration.
Elections have consequences. If Trump wins a second term, he should have the freedom to implement an America First policy as he sees fit as chief executive.
But an America First policy developed and executed by those loyal first and foremost to the president and without the wisdom and guidance of career foreign service officials in the room would in effect be a “Trump First” policy. It’s a new US reality with which Asia’s leaders and policymakers may soon need to grapple and contend.
Steven R Okun is CEO of APAC Advisors and has been based in Singapore since 2003. He served in the Clinton administration as deputy general counsel of the US Department of Transportation. He is chief executive of APAC Advisors. He previously served as chairman of the AmChams of Asia Pacific, the umbrella organization of 25 American Chambers of Commerce across the region.