Israel’s airstrikes of October 26, 2024 – which hit around 20 military targets in Iran, Iraq and Syria – had been anticipated for weeks. Indeed, the operation followed a promise from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to retaliate for an earlier ballistic missile attack by Tehran in early October.
The move also follows a pattern that has seen Iran and Israel take turns to up the ante in what was for a long time a “shadow war,” but which has has now developed into direct confrontation.
These tit-for-tat attacks prompted widespread fears that the whole region was poised to enter a more escalatory phase.
But, counterintuitive though it may seem, I believe that the latest Israeli strikes may actually have defused tensions. To understand why, it is worth analyzing the nature and scale of the Israeli operation, as well as the likely stance of decision-makers in Israel, Iran and the United States in the aftermath of the attack.
A calibrated attack by Israel
The October air assault by Iran was itself retaliation for a series of Israeli operations against Iran’s proxy group Hezbollah. These included the assassination of a high-ranking Hamas official in Tehran on the eve of the inauguration of Iran’s new president in July and the killing of Hezbollah’s leader in late September.
Similarly, an earlier air assault on Israeli targets in April by Tehran was in response to Israeli provocations this spring – including a strike against the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, on April 1 that killed two senior military officers.
Many observers anticipated, or feared, an Israeli response to Iran’s October missile and drone attack to be heavy, and punishing – Israel certainly has the military capability to do so.
But rather than target vital infrastructure in Iran or the country’s nuclear facilities, Israel instead opted for “precise and targeted” strikes on the Islamic Republic’s air defense and missile capabilities.
The somewhat limited scope of the Israeli operations suggests that the strike was designed to send a strong message to Iran’s supreme leader and Iranian military commanders. In essence, Israel was signaling that it has the capability to strike at the heart of Iran, while holding back from a full-throttled attack that would have had further damaged Iran’s fragile economy.
While it will take time for a full assessment of the effectiveness of Israel’s strikes to emerge, early indications suggest that they succeeded in revealing weaknesses in Iran’s overall security.
These weaknesses that could be further exploited against other more important targets, such as oil and gas production facilities or even nuclear power sites, should Iran or its partners in the so-called “axis of resistance” choose to retaliate.
A cautious response in Iran
Despite the apparent success of Israel’s attacks against a wide range of targets, statements from Iranian leaders suggest the operational impact was limited. An Iranian Foreign Ministry statement condemned the attack, noting that Iran “had a right to self-defense.” But at the same it added that Iran would “uphold its commitments for regional peace and stability.”
Reading into those words, it suggests to me that Iran is not immediately seeking to retaliate and escalate tensions further.
Of course, that could change. Further messages by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khameini or Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani may give a clearer indication whether Iran will seek to retaliate, and how.
But with Iran well aware of the impact that escalation – and the potential for more US-led sanctions and heightened support for Israel – would have on its ailing economy, it may well calculate that a return to the pre-escalation status quo with Israel is in its interests.
In Washington, a wary White House
A return to the shadow war between Israel and Iran – as opposed to open warfare – would no doubt be welcomed in Washington.
Since the horrific Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7, 2023, the Biden administration has been caught between competing obligations and concerns. This has included supporting longstanding ally Israel while not alienating friendly Arab governments and trying to avoid conflict creep into all out war in the region.
Meanwhile, in an election year, the Democratic ticket in particular is trying to balance its support for a largely pro-Israel Jewish voting block with a need not to offend potentially important Muslim votes in key states, nor a more pro-Palestinian youth vote.
Escalation of conflict in the region does nothing to help the White House in these respects. Yet President Joe Biden’s decades-long relationship with Netanyahu has not led to outcomes that the administration has sought. Washington has not succeeded in pushing its ally toward a ceasefire in Gaza, nor a cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon.
And with the US election looming on November 5, elevated tensions in the Middle East on various fronts could impact how voters perceive Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump — especially in the battleground state of Michigan, where the Democratic ticket may lose votes among Arab and Muslim Americans angered over the Biden administration’s perceived pro-Israel stance.
Threading the needle?
Predicting what will happen next in the Middle East has escaped the most seasoned analysts.
It may take days, weeks or even months to assess whether this latest airstrike by Israel will lead to a further escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel – or whether a more de-escalatory dynamic settles over the region.
But there are good reasons to believe that decision-makers in Iran, Israel and the US know that more escalation is in no one’s interests. And the latest salvo may have just done enough to satisfy Israel, while providing cover for Tehran to say that there is no need to return fire in kind.
Javed Ali is associate professor of practice of public policy, University of Michigan
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Dude, just watch the actual viral videos of how well Iranian AD performed. The era of mythical status of Western weaponry has evaporated first in Ukraine now in Israel. We saw how many missiles hit Israel, we saw how many israeli missiles Iran intercepted. Stop peddling this hasbara sh*t. It is palatable to deluded Western audience hooked to lies & deception of MSM.
Smell the coffee, get real for once. Then come back and write an article.
They can certainly shoot down civilian planes
I had a look around the Web but I couldn’t see anything except flak explosions over Tehran. It looked like random fire. Whether they hit anything I couldn’t tell. I looked at Iranian news sites for photographs of missile wreckage but didn’t see anything. If they had wreckage to show I am sure they would have.
The Iranian clergy and their IRGC guarantors are of limited intelligence. It was obvious Israel would attack with stand-off weapons. Israel’s distancing weapons are described on the Web. Iran has a national air defence system of some capability but no means to spill it into neighbouring airspace, where the missiles were released from. By the time the idiots solve the problem, Israel will have something new to show them.
Very few people in the West understand how extreme the Israel fascist regime really is. Go and read up on figures like Ayelet Shaked, Dov Lior, Bezalel Smotrich, Itamar Ben Gvir and Amichai Eliyahu. You have no idea what level of fundamentalism the Jews have on their hands at the moment
Thus spake the Iranian, Russian, Chinese, and North Korean agent on premises. For those who don’t understand the cow explaining algebra to a moose above: the ultra-left, the pork-on-Yom Kippur eaters, not unlike those of their American counterparts who cannot provide the definition of what a woman is without being a biologist, have spawned a counter-reaction. The disgruntled, limited to soundbites and screen names, label it ‘fascism,’ while the sober-minded know it as ‘democracy.’
You need to come to grips with the fact that there are other positions out there other than the pro-Western one. In fact, most of your understanding is wrong about the world if you follow Western mainstream media soundbites. Everything about Israeli government positions are at complete odds with “freedom, democracy and human rights”. Israel does more to undermine democracy than any other country on Earth other than the US. With their surveillance and hacking tools subverting freedom of expression and exploiting vulnerabilities in communications and messaging networks and platforms, selling these exploits to world governments. They stole nuclear fissile material from the US (Apollo Affair) and blew up a nuke in Apartheid South Africa (their best friend at the time). There is still time to un-brainwash your mind from the “god’s chosenite” hype.
The Arab spring needed no help from Israel to make no inroads into removing some nasties, to replace them with others. Face facts, apart from Israel the ME is an impoverished shut hole.