The US Air Force is reassessing its future air dominance strategy in light of budget constraints, technological advances and the fast-evolving threat of armed drones.
This month, Air & Space Forces Magazine reported that the US Air Force is reevaluating its approach to achieving air superiority, potentially shifting away from a manned sixth-generation fighter as part of its Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program.
According to Air & Space Forces Magazine, US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall announced a “pause” on the NGAD program in July. The source states that acquisition chief Andrew Hunter and Vice Chief of Staff General James Slife suggested reassessing requirements at this month’s Defense News conference.
The report says that the review will consider whether air superiority can be achieved by combining existing aircraft like the F-35, F-15EX and F-22 alongside new technologies such as Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). It points out that advances in autonomy and other technologies since the initial NGAD analysis have prompted the reconsideration.
Air & Space Forces Magazine says that the US Air Force aims to integrate these emerging capabilities into a cohesive system that ensures air superiority in contested environments while remaining cost-effective. It adds that the reassessment’s outcome could influence the NGAD program’s future, with potential contract awards as early as 2025.
In June 2024, Asia Times reported that the US Air Force’s plans for future air dominance are in turmoil due to budget constraints, aging F-22 Raptors and uncertainties surrounding the NGAD program.
The Government Accountability Office (GAO) criticized the USAF’s fiscal year 2023 budget proposal for lacking detailed data on the implications of retiring older F-22 Block 20 fighters.
Upgrading these aircraft to Block 30/35 standards would cost US$3.3 billion and take 15 years. The F-22 fleet is set for a US$22 billion upgrade over the next decade, but concerns remain about its relevance when the upgrades are completed.
Meanwhile, a US Department of Defense (DOD) report released this August shows that the F-35 program is experiencing a reduction in planned aircraft purchases. Notably, in 2025, 42 F-35 aircraft are planned for procurement, down from 48 in 2024. The decrease continues with a consistent procurement of 42 aircraft for 2026 before increasing again in 2027 to 47 units.
This reduction is observed across all variants of the F-35, including the F-35A, B and C models. The decrease in procurement aligns with budgetary constraints and strategic adjustments within the program.
Meanwhile, the NGAD program, which aims to develop a sixth-generation fighter, faces potential cancellation due to high costs, technological challenges and evolving air dominance concepts.
The US Air Force is also grappling with delays in the F-35 program and the high costs of the B-21 Raider and Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) programs.
As the US Air Force plans for air dominance, a revived light fighter concept offers a flexible, cost-effective alternative to the high-cost NGAD program, balancing affordability with cutting-edge capability.
In August 2024, Asia Times mentioned that the US Air Force is considering reviving its light fighter concept to address challenges with its next-generation fighter program. This move aims to create adaptable, cost-effective aircraft in response to China’s airpower advancements.
The concept, resembling a scaled-down F-35, emphasizes rapid software updates over traditional hardware upgrades, aligning with the NGAD initiative. The NGAD program has faced scrutiny due to its high costs, with each sixth-generation stealth combat jet estimated at nearly US$250 million.
The light fighter concept could lead to a mixed fleet, balancing high-end capabilities with affordability and potentially integrating uncrewed CCA drones.
The concept also resonates with previous considerations for a “high/low” mix of fighters, which could replace the aging F-16 fleet and provide a cost-effective solution to maintaining air superiority.
Asia Times noted in May 2024 that overly complex and expensive sixth-generation fighters may ultimately be a waste of financial resources and erode US competitiveness in other domains including space.
The US military may be better off prioritizing unmanned systems and space-based weapons platforms that are more cost-effective, simplified and aligned with future strategic requirements, the report argued.
Instead of investing in potentially redundant warplanes, the US could potentially prioritize the development of space-based weapons and concentrate on building less complex, easier-to-mass-produce systems that can outmaneuver, outpace and swarm adversary targets.
With drones reshaping the battlefield, the US Air Force faces mounting pressure to balance traditional air superiority with enhanced air defense capabilities to address evolving aerial threats.
In a May 2024 War on the Rocks article, Clifford Lucas argues that the US Air Force is grappling with a heated debate between air superiority and air defense.
Lucas points out that as drone technology advances, the line between traditional aircraft and missiles blurs, raising concerns about whether air superiority is enough to protect against evolving threats.
Outlining both sides of the debate, Lucas says critics argue that the current air superiority doctrine focuses too much on manned aircraft and overlooks the growing threat of unmanned aerial systems.
On the other hand, he says proponents of air defense believe it should be prioritized, as drones are more akin to missiles than traditional aircraft, demanding a shift in focus to missile defense systems.
However, Lucas mentions that US military leaders suggest that air superiority and air defense are not mutually exclusive but interconnected missions that must evolve in tandem.
He says that the advent of ever-increasingly advanced drones should influence the US Air Force to rethink resource allocation, advocating for better coordination between military branches to maintain dominance in contested airspaces.
He stresses that the ongoing debate could reshape future strategies, emphasizing the need for more adaptable, integrated defense systems capable of responding to a broad spectrum of aerial threats.
Lucas emphasizes that the evolving drone threat highlights the necessity for a strong air defense system and modernized air superiority strategy as military planners seek to secure the skies in future conflicts.
He says that the focus is increasingly on balancing these two priorities to face the realities of next-generation warfare.
Part of the high cost of US military aerospace procurement is due to a hidden subsidy for civilian aerospace. The military overpays to subsidise the civilian side. Boeing—turkeys are not just for Thanksgiving—is a big recipient of the largess.