Here are the preliminary results from the Iranian attacks on Israel over the weekend:
– 331 missiles and drones launched by Iran at Israel
– 185 out of 185 kamikaze drones were shot down
– 103 out of 110 ballistic missiles were shot down
– 36 out of 36 cruise missiles were shot down
– 7 ballistic missile impacts have been recorded on Israeli territory
Israel used its F-35s, F15s and F16s to intercept drones along with Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow I and II.
Israel was assisted by the US Air Force and Navy, and by Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Jordan used its F-16s and air defenses. I do not have a report yet from Saudi Arabia.
The ballistic missiles that got through hit the Israeli air base at Nevatim but did not do significant damage. The base remains fully operational.
Israel hit a Hezbollah weapons manufacturing facility in southern Lebanon. This was in response to a Hezbollah missile attack on an Israeli base in Israel’s north.
So far there is no word of any counter-strike on Iran by Israel. Reports say that any such strike will be coordinated with the US. For inexplicable reasons, US President Joe Biden (who is backing Israel) wants an emergency G-7 meeting, even though the G-7 is an economic, not a military organization.
I think it is fair to say that the Iranian attack was largely a failure and that Israel’s and allied air defenses performed very well. The number of missiles fired at Israel exceeds anything we have seen so far in Ukraine where even big attacks rarely exceed twenty of thirty drones and missiles.
The Iranians did not knock out any of the air defenses protecting Israel.
The response of Saudi Arabia and Jordan was a huge breakthrough: it is the first time Arab countries participated in defending Israel. This is a huge blow to Iran which is seeking to subvert both countries.
At the present, I do not know of any casualties. Israelis were ordered into bomb shelters, airports and other transit were closed down, etc. Israel resumed commercial air traffic on Sunday.
There is still much more to learn.
Stephen Bryen served as staff director of the Near East Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a deputy undersecretary of defense for policy.
This article was first published on his Weapons and Strategy Substack and is republished with permission.
For a nice change here relating to Israel an excellent fair resume at the time of the author’s writing. The cooperation of France was omitted which with Jordan & Saudi Arabia. The latter two indicate to many two points.
these countries with the Gulf have a fear and loathing of Iran for good reasons.
Little known or published Jordan is currently experiencing a triple whammy. In conjunction with Irzan’s greater plan to have the eastern flank towards Israel on its side they are with the now majority Hamazs supporting populaztion AND the local Muslim Brotherhood (banned but to pander to the people tolerated) to slowly but surely attempt another “Black September 2” in the Kingdom. The King , bedouin army & establishment know this too well but they are under great pressure due to their smaller numbers. Once they thought they could count on the US 82nd Airborne coming to the rescue (before that the favoured ones were the British paras), but like the Shah of Iran discovered to his chagrin, they never arrived or even left barracks! The only ones, yet again, who can be guaranteed to save the throne for their own good reasons too are their neighbour Israel. This may well account for the participation of Jordanian pilots much appreciated by Israel, who despite all, admires the King & country !
Both these aspects taken together indicate sooner than later there will be a non published pack with these countries including the mainstay Israel. It seems again Iran has badly miscalculated.
After 2 years of reporting of the western press from the Ukraine front, I tend to take these reports with a ton of salt. Reminds me of the westerns in the 50s when 2 cowboys with six shooters would kill off 150 Indians. Too much propaganda.