MANILA – This week, the Philippines and United States kicked off their largest-ever and most consequential joint Balikatan (shoulder-to-shoulder) war games featuring as many as 16,000 troops including 11,000 American servicemen.
Crucially, the two allies will conduct some of their drills outside the Philippines’ 12 nautical miles “territorial sea” in the South China Sea, a direct challenge to China’s expansive “nine-dash line’ claim encompassing most of the international waterway.
In a move that will likely further irk China, the weekslong Balikatan exercises will also extend to the Philippines’ northern province of Cagayan, which abuts Taiwan’s southern shores.
The massive drills come on the heels of the historic Japan-Philippine-US (JAPHUS) trilateral summit in Washington, where US President Joe Biden publicly warned China of its mutual defense obligations to the Philippines in the event of a conflict in the South China Sea.
It remains to be seen whether Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr will symbolically attend this year’s drills. The leader has firmed up strategic relations with the US, including by allowing US forces rotational access to northern Philippine bases near Taiwan via the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).
Marcos Jr had earlier in his tenure signaled commitment to diplomatic engagement with China by ruling out further expansion of US access to Philippine bases, a position he has since flip-flopped as tensions have spiked over contested South China Sea features.
At home, the Filipino president is facing staunch opposition from his pro-Beijing predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, who has publicly criticized him for supposedly antagonizing China and even visited Beijing in his capacity as ex-president, in what some saw as a challenge to Marco Jr’s authority.
The Philippine government is now pushing back and is set to investigate an alleged “secret deal” between China and the Duterte administration over the hotly contested Second Thomas Shoal, which has been at the heart of recent rising maritime tensions in the South China Sea.
In many ways, Marcos Jr is taking on China and its proxies on multiple fronts as the Southeast Asian nation steps up defense of its core sovereign interests.
This year’s Balikatan exercises underscore the shift from Duterte to Marcos Jr. For months, the Philippines and China have been flirting with direct armed clashes, with the most recent water cannon incident leading to the injury of Filipino naval servicemen and damage to several Philippine vessels.
In response, the Biden administration is intent on signaling its resolve to stand by its besieged Southeast Asian ally, which has limited capacity on its own to stand up to the far more powerful China.
Last year’s Balikatan exercises were already massive, featuring as many as 17,000 troops as well as observers from half a dozen nations, including the United Kingdom.
By deploying up to 11,000 troops this year, the Pentagon has signaled a “new normal” in its security cooperation with the Philippines. This year’s observer nations’ list is even larger and more diverse than last year’s, featuring a mixture of neighboring and allied nations.
Other Indo-Pacific powers are also expected to indirectly participate in the exercises, with France reportedly set to sail warships near the South China Sea drills while Australia and Japan will attend the drills as observers.
The US also raised the stakes this year by deploying state-of-the-art weapons systems, including the positioning of High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers onto islands for live-fire exercises and the newly-developed Typhon missile launchers system, albeit reportedly for only transportation drills.
For its part, the Philippines will deploy, for the first time, its newly-built ship-based missile system, known as C-star, which is capable of reaching targets as far as 90 miles (144.8 kilometers) away.
“All the available assets of the Philippine Army will be used so we can see the interoperability in all major services,” Philippine Army spokesperson Colonel Louie Dema-ala told local news channel GMA Network.
The 39th edition of annual drills will feature a full range of exercises, including live-fire training, urban operations, aviation operations, counterterrorism, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, and, most crucially, island defense and amphibious operations that simulate a potential conflict with China.
One set of drills will be held on Balabac island in Palawan province, where the two allies will simulate the recapture of island territories that jut out into the South China Sea.
In Lal-lo airport in northern Cagayan province, the two sides will simulate protection of the northernmost Philippine islands in the event of a Chinese invasion of nearby Taiwan.
In a new twist, the games will also have cyberspace and information warfare components, Colonel Fransel Margareth Padilla, the newly installed spokesperson for the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), told media.
Significantly, the massive wargames coincide with domestic pushback against pro-Beijing elements in the Philippines.
In particular, the Philippine government is exploring potential criminal charges against former officials for undermining the national interest during negotiations with China under the Duterte administration.
After months of speculation and denials, Duterte recently confirmed that he had a “gentleman’s agreement” with China over the Second Thomas Shoal.
Under the alleged deal, according to China, the former Filipino president allegedly agreed not to fortify the BRP Sierra Madre, a dilapidated ship serving as Manila’s de facto base over the contested shoal, as part of confidence-building measures with Beijing over the South China Sea.
“The only thing I remember (was it was a) status quo (agreement). That’s the word…As is, where is, (which means), no movement, no armed patrol there, so there would be no trouble, that is what I remember),” Duterte said in a mixture of Filipino and English during a controversial interview with China’s ultranationalist The Global Times.
“If it was a gentleman’s agreement, it was an agreement that keeps the peace in the South China Sea…Don’t believe their false claims because I’m not that stupid,” he added, referring to critics who have accused Duterte of committing treason through the agreement.
The exact nature of the secret deal is still not clear since other former top officials have denied the existence of any policy that would undermine the Philippines’ national interest.
If anything, then-defense secretary Delfin Lorenzana oversaw the fortification of Philippine facilities and bases across the contested Spratly group of islands while resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal remained routine.
That’s not how the Marcos Jr administration sees it, though. “I am horrified by the idea that we have compromised into a secret agreement the territory, the sovereign rights of the Filipino,” declared Marcos Jr during a recent press conference.
“For me, it’s clear that they [Duterte administration] hid something – they had discussions that were kept from the people, number one,” he added, in speaking to concerns over potentially treasonous acts under the former president.
“[If] you have any secret, any agreement with another sovereign state should really be known by the people, should be known by the elected officials, should be known by the Senate. Because the treaty is to be ratified by the Senate. It should be known by all the local officials. It should be known by everyone,” Marcos said.
“If it’s a bad decision, you’re accountable,” he warned in a shot across Duterte’s bow.
Given the Marcoses’ tenuous alliance with the Dutertes, especially assumed presidential aspirant Vice President Sara Duterte, it’s unclear how far the Philippine government will pursue the ex-president over the issue.
Marcos’ allies in the Philippine Congress, however, are likely to push ahead with public hearings on the former president’s “secret deal” with China, thus setting the stage for a potential political crackdown on pro-Beijing forces in the Philippines as Marcos Jr embarks on a multifront pushback against China and its proxies.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian
Delusional to the nth degree
The US Congress recently approved a $95 billion aid package, which allocates funds to the Indo-Pacific region. However, it remains unclear whether this package includes the previously speculated $2.5 billion for the Philippines. While the expansion of the Balikatan military exercises is a positive step, it is essential that the commitment often described as ‘Ironclad” is accompanied by substantial investments in infrastructure, arms, and ammunition to fully realize the strategic partnership.