Japan and North Korea have stepped up their arms race to another level, a tit-for-tat escalation with big implications for regional security and stability.
On one side, North Korea has tested a hypersonic weapon and has announced plans to launch a constellation of spy satellites. On the other, Japan is testing its next-generation missile defense radar, expediting cruise missile purchases and mulling upgrades to its alliance with the United States.
Newsweek and others have reported that North Korea plans to launch several spy satellites by the end of this year, marking the 11th anniversary of its space industry. This month’s spy satellite launch follows North Korea’s successful launch of its first surveillance satellite, the Malligyong-1, last November.
North Korea’s National Aerospace Technology Administration Deputy Director General Pak Kyong So said that Malligyong-1 showed the progress the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea has made in strengthening national defense by conquering outer space. He added that “several” more reconnaissance satellites are planned for this year.
North Korea’s satellites enable it to identify, track and surveil South Korean, US, and Japanese forces, assets and countermeasures both on the peninsula and the broader region. The Newsweek article notes that North Korea’s reconnaissance abilities have improved due to its cooperation with Russia, which has improved since the Ukraine war.
North Korea’s planned spy satellite constellation may also substantially improve its targeting capabilities. Pyongyang has also been actively testing hypersonic missiles, the next logical step in the progression of its formidable missile arsenal.
Building on those intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) and target acquisition capabilities (TA), The Japan Times reported that North Korea had tested a new hypersonic intermediate-range solid-fuel missile named the Hwasong-16B.
The Japan Times notes that the test was supervised by North Korean Supreme Leader Kim, who described the Hwasong-16B missile as a critical piece of the country’s nuclear deterrent. He vowed to build up North Korea’s nuclear arsenal further to counter the nation’s “enemies,” a reference to the US, South Korea and Japan.
The Japan Times notes that the Joint Chiefs of Staff of South Korea assessed that the missile flew about 600 kilometers and accused North Korea of exaggerating its flight performance while acknowledging that the North’s technologies were improving.
However, the same report points out that it is unclear whether North Korea has perfected the technologies to ensure that the warheads of its hypersonic solid-fuel missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles survive the harsh conditions of atmospheric re-entry.
Asia Times noted in December 2022 that solid-fuel missiles have several advantages over their liquid-fuel counterparts. These include a more straightforward design with no complex pipes or pumps, no volatile liquid fuel, longer storage life, improved mobility, and no need for hours-long preflight fueling.
Those advantages could allow North Korea’s missiles to strike targets without warning. North Korea’s steady advancements in space-based targeting have prompted Japan to bolster its defenses, emphasizing long-range “counterstrike” capabilities. However, a pre-emptive strike against North Korea’s missile arsenal or its leadership runs the risk of nuclear retaliation.
With that risk, Japan will likely focus on technologies to shoot down incoming missiles as well as disrupt North Korea’s kill chain – its ISR and TA capabilities along with the communications and data links along the latter’s chain of command.
The Warzone reported this month that Japan’s next-generation major surface combatants, the Aegis System Equipped Vessels (ASEVs), have passed a critical space object tracking test. The Warzone says that The AN/SPY-7(V)1 radar installed in the ASEVs has successfully demonstrated its capability to track targets beyond the Earth’s atmosphere, which is essential for the effective deployment of SM-3 anti-missile interceptors designed to destroy ballistic missiles during their mid-course flight.
Asia Times noted in December 2023 that while Japan’s ASEVs are primarily intended for ballistic missile defense (BMD), to defend areas not covered by Japan’s land-based missile defenses, and to free up more US and Japanese warships for anti-submarine missiles, upgrades throughout their service lives may allow them to become a potent anti-hypersonic platform. Such upgrades may include the Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI) co-developed with the US and railguns.
However, Japan’s ASEVs may pose significant operational challenges and have critical vulnerabilities. Maintaining ASEVs at round-the-clock operational readiness may be more challenging compared to maintaining land-based defenses at constant readiness. Japan’s ASEVs will also likely become priority targets for North Korea and China’s missile arsenals.
Apart from giving its ASEVs anti-hypersonic capabilities, Japan’s acquisition of US-made Tomahawk missiles gives those warships a long-range punch against North Korea and China.
Last month, NHK reported that the US Navy has begun training Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) personnel to handle Tomahawk cruise missiles, following the latter’s decision to purchase 400 advanced munitions.
Asia Times noted in October 2023 that Japan plans to acquire 200 missiles in fiscal years 2026 and 2027 and will arm all of its eight Aegis destroyers with Tomahawks by 2027.
However, Japan has not been clear on how it plans to use those counterstrike capabilities. Japanese leaders have differentiated between various capabilities, including enemy base strike, missile prevention and interdiction, counterattack, pre-emptive strike, missile defense and comprehensive air and missile defense.
Still, counterstrike capabilities are expected to benefit the US-Japan alliance, leading to improved joint operations and enhanced deterrence. However, the Joint Operation Command (OPCON) has yet to be integrated into the alliance for various reasons.
That situation may be about to change. Last month, the Financial Times (FT) reported that the US and Japan plan to restructure the military command in the latter to strengthen operational planning, with plans to be revealed later this month.
FT mentions that US-Japan military operations are currently hampered by the JSDF’s need to coordinate with the US Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) in Hawaii, which is 19 hours behind Tokyo and 6,200 kilometers away, instead of US Forces Japan (USFJ).
The FT report mentions that the US is considering creating a new US military joint task force attached to the US Pacific Fleet, which would eventually be based in Japan. It also states that upgrading USFJ is another option.
FT says that while partially co-locating US and Japan commands in the latter could bolster the deterrent value of the US-Japan alliance and increase responsiveness to regional threats, issues such as unclear leadership and operational relationships, resource allocation, chain of command and inter-service rivalry still have to be ironed out.