Faced with a decline in authority and mounting territorial losses, Myanmar’s beleaguered junta has resorted to a controversial new war-fighting strategy: conscripting Rohingya Muslims under the auspices of a new People’s Military Service Law.
Enacted on February 10, the legislation has elicited widespread discontent among eligible citizens, leading some to consider emigration or affiliation with armed anti-junta groups or ethnic armies.
The junta’s recent defeats against the Arakan Army in Rakhine state, including the loss of significant territories including Pauktaw, Minbya, Mrauk-U, Kyauktaw, Myay Pon, and Taung Pyo townships, as well as Paletwa Township in Chin state, are driving the regime’s desperate bid to recruit new fighters – even among those the military has historically abused and oppressed.
The junta has announced that if Rohingya men serve in the military, then each will receive a sack of rice, a citizenship identity card and a monthly salary of 150,000 kyats (US$41).
In a particularly contentious action, the military has issued a directive under the People’s Military Service Law to recruit new soldiers directly from Rohingya internally displaced persons (IDP) camps in the Rakhine state capital of Sittwe.
The order instructs camp management committees to select individuals from each camp to bolster military ranks and operations against the insurgent Arakan Army, which recently ended a ceasefire with the military and has announced its intent to seize control of the entirety of Rakhine state.
The Rohingya community has condemned the junta’s conscription drive, which many view as a reprehensible bid to use Rohingya recruits as human shields. The regime’s cynicism is blatant in light of the military’s 2017 “area clearance operation” that drove hundreds of thousands of Rohingya into Bangladesh and sparked international outcries of genocide.
The new law mandates the conscription of men aged 18 to 45 and women aged 18 to 35 into the armed forces for a two-year period, extendable to five years during national emergencies, which the nation now clearly faces.
The Ministry of Defense, meanwhile, is empowered to issue regulations, procedures, announcements, orders, notifications and instructions necessary for the law’s implementation. Failure to comply with conscription carries penalties of imprisonment ranging from three to five years and heavy fines.
The junta is extending a pseudo-olive branch to Rohingya confined to displacement camps in Rakhine state, a legacy of the recent brutal campaign against the group. This narrative revolves around offering them freedom of movement as inducement to enlist and fight ethnic Rakhine Arakan Army rebels.
Given the junta’s diminishing authority and the inherent complexities of involving the Rohingya in an already volatile situation in Rakhine state, the move is another clear sign of the regime’s rising desperation.
Recent months have seen the junta lose significant territories to a host of armed groups fighting against its coup and rule. Social media has been awash with images showing rebels capturing military outposts, mass surrenders of fatigued soldiers and even the downing of a military aircraft.
In one compelling image, military commanders are seen raising a glass in apparent concession alongside former adversaries following a defeat in Laukkai, in northern Shan state, where nearly 2,400 soldiers reportedly surrendered.
Reports estimate that approximately two-thirds of Myanmar is now embroiled in armed conflict, with the junta already relinquishing key territories along the northern border with China and in western regions near the Indian border. Elsewhere, where anti-coup movements have faced slower progress, fierce battles persist.
Criticism of the junta’s leadership, particularly directed towards coup-maker Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, has intensified, even among pro-military factions.
Recent protests, including one led by ultranationalist monk Pauk Sayardaw, have gone as far as to call for Min Aung Hlaing’s resignation. This discontent among the military’s traditional supporters underscores society’s broad dissatisfaction with the junta’s rule and wars.
Myanmar’s long-running civil war has undergone significant shifts with the post-coup emergence of various new groups aligned against the junta, not least new and increasingly well-armed People’s Defense Forces (PDFs).
The successful coordinated operations by experienced ethnic armed groups such as the Brotherhood Alliance have emboldened the pro-democracy resistance as the junta loses its grip across various areas.
Despite mounting battlefield losses and internal discontent, a leadership change at the junta’s top is still far from certain. While there are reports of growing frustration among the top brass, the military’s deeply entrenched top-down culture means Min Aung Hlaing’s ouster is still unlikely.
Nor is it clear that alternative leadership would halt the violence or address underlying grievances.
The junta’s brutal campaigns across the country, including in ethnic majority Bamar areas that historically have not been touched by armed conflict, have left troops demoralized and exhausted.
That’s feeding into flagging new recruitment as disillusionment with the junta grows, further weakening the military’s capacity to sustain its counterinsurgency operations. The junta’s bid to recruit Rohingya Muslims can thus only be seen as a sign of its desperation.
But its arbitrary conscription drive, including among the Rohingya, risks exacerbating already dangerously high tensions and may ultimately spark further instability as many may opt to join the resistance rather than fight for a widely loathed and rudderless regime.