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Beijing focuses on high-tech industry
David P. Goldman and Uwe Parpart analyze China’s “two sessions” meetings, which were focused on industrial transformation rather than macroeconomic interventions, emphasizing technological advancement and self-sufficiency. China’s exports to the Global South have surged, reflecting a shift in global supply chains towards Sinocentric dynamics.
Gold, TIPS and Black Swans
David P. Goldman writes that gold and TIPS yields have historically traded in sync, but after the US seized Russian reserves in 2022, gold’s relationship with TIPS appeared to shift, suggesting it may now serve as a hedge against US default. Investors seem willing to pay a premium for long-term gold hedges against potential crises in an otherwise calm market environment.
Unclear majority after shift to the right in Portugal
Diego Faßnacht assesses the results of Portugal’s recent election, which is reflective of broader trends of right-wing resurgence across Europe. Portugal’s traditional two-party system has been disrupted by the rise of the right-wing Chega Party, which secured 18% of the vote, with neither the Conservatives nor Socialists able to form a majority government alone.
NATO intervention to reinforce Ukrainian defensive lines?
James Davis reports that recent statements by German and French leaders have caused divisions within NATO, raising speculation about potential direct Western intervention against Russia in Ukraine. Other NATO members are cautious and wish to avoid escalating conflict with Russia as Ukrainians seek to establish a solid defensive line on the battlefield.
Chinese tech stocks rally, India’s semiconductor industry follows a different path
Scott Foster notes that China’s increased funding for its semiconductor industry, alongside US-led sanctions, has accelerated tech development. Meanwhile, India’s semiconductor industry is set to grow substantially as companies invest in its chip ecosystem, providing an alternative market for tech companies amid geopolitical tensions with China.