China: Calls for broad monetary easing are ill-conceived
Uwe Parpart discusses China’s economic difficulties amidst a poor stock market recovery and weak economic data. He points out major issues in the property sector, notably with bankrupt developers leaving millions of homes unfinished—a problem he suggests cannot be resolved with monetary easing alone.
Weakness in Chinese tech stocks, stability in financials as stock rally fizzles
David P. Goldman discusses Chinese market trends, highlighting a decline in tech stocks but stability in financials, contradicting fears of property sector-induced financial instability. He outlines tech sector challenges like export controls, heavy investments for import replacements, and AI monetization issues. Despite these, he considers the cost of achieving semiconductor independence burdensome despite governmental subsidies.
German fear of weak Chinese economy
Diego Faßnacht outlines the German Bundesbank’s warning of potential negative impacts on Germany’s GDP due to a possible economic crisis in China. The consequences, influenced by decreasing foreign demand, could also destabilize the German financial system, particularly if decoupling from China occurs abruptly. He notes the unaddressed issue of US sanctions on China, particularly affecting chip production.
Putin eyes strategic window for new Ukraine offensive
James Davis provides a strategic take on the stand-off in Ukraine, suggesting that while Russia’s current military actions are primarily tactical, a major offensive may be planned for the future. Davis posits that President Putin’s claim of 600,000 troops is exaggerated, with only a third of that number actively involved and the rest held in reserve.
US politicians step up the tech war on China
Scott Foster discusses the intensified US tech war with China. The Biden Administration plans to restrict foreign access to US cloud computing, potentially driving Chinese customers to domestic providers. Simultaneously, discussions around empowering the Commerce Department for enhanced export controls and foreign investment screening are happening. There are concerns about China flooding the market with “legacy chips”, which could lead to overall tighter controls.