China’s Shenlong robotic space plane has been spied placing six unidentified objects into Earth’s orbit with amateur spacecraft trackers closely following and recording emissions from the mysterious wingmen, according to a space.com report.
The six objects have been designated OBJECT A, B, C, D, E and F with some of them appearing to emit signals similar to objects released during the reusable space plane’s previous missions, the space.com report says.
The report quotes satellite tracker Scott Tilley saying that Objects D and E emit idle “placeholder” signals without accompanying data. His conclusion was based on observing the objects along their expected paths in the sky, the absence of other known objects in the beam of the trackers’ antennas when data was collected and the unique modulation of these signals.
The space.com report mentions that the Chinese space plane’s mission was launched into a similar orbit as the last two but operationally exhibited different radio behavior. The report notes that the additional observations of the emissions from Object D and E are new but could also have been missed on earlier missions if they were intermittent.
Space.com says that China’s space plane, known as the “Divine Dragon”, has exhibited similar behaviors, with two previous missions releasing a small unknown object into orbit. The source mentions that the US also operates a reusable robotic space plane, the Boeing-built X-37B, which is set to launch on December 28 after several delays.
China is quickly gaining experience with space plane operations for various objectives, with successive operations testing its different capabilities.
Asia Times reported in May 2023 that China’s secretive miniature space plane, which could support future military operations in space, has cleared a key test hurdle, landing on an unspecified runway in the Gobi Desert after 276 days in orbit.
China’s state media highlighted the event as a significant milestone in the country’s space program, noting that its journey was much shorter than that of the US X-37B, which spent 908 days in orbit.
China’s mini space plane docked with or captured a smaller object multiple times during that mission. Since its launch in August 2022, China’s mini space plane has conducted numerous large maneuvers, demonstrated formation flying and self-propelled flight in two or three docking or capture missions.
A space plane could be viewed as an efficient and reusable means to place multiple payloads into space, a capability that could be critical for establishing satellite constellations to support military operations.
In a December 2021 article for the peer-reviewed Acta Astronautica journal, Paolo Baiocco notes that reusable space launch systems can provide an economic advantage based on their launch rates, recovery and refurbishment cost and maximum payload mass.
Baiocco also says that reusable systems can avoid fallout on sea or land, avoiding the danger and pollution of expendable rocket parts crashing into populated areas. Given those advantages, China may develop its space plane as a cost-effective reusable mass satellite launch platform.
In July 2023, the Chinese state mouthpiece Global Times reported that China plans to build a 300-satellite constellation at the Very Low Earth Orbit (VLEO) by 2030, providing ultra-fast remote sensing and communication services.
The source mentions that the construction of the new VLEO constellation will be carried out in three phases. It says the first satellite will be launched by December 2023 and nine more satellites will be launched by 2024, forming a satellite data public service platform.
It notes that China envisions having 300 VLEO satellites in orbit by 2030, developing an ultrafast global responding capability within 15 minutes.
In military terms, The Washington Post mentions in an April 2023 article that China views US satellite constellations such as the US Starlink and its military-exclusive Starshield service as a networked global surveillance and early warning system.
The Washington Post notes that Starlink has proved its worth on the battlefields of Ukraine by providing cheap, portable, high-speed internet where other infrastructure has failed, enabling live-stream drone feeds, accurate artillery fire and keeping troops in touch with their families. Such a capability would also be valuable for China in a Taiwan contingency.
Furthermore, space planes could be used as a fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS), although such usage may be questioned. The Soviet Union first developed FOBS to evade US missile defense radars pointing north by flying a protracted course over the South Pole. However, the idea fell out of favor with the advent of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN).
In a widely cited August 2021 article, the Financial Times (FT) reported that China tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile, demonstrating an advanced space capability that reportedly surprised US intelligence agencies.
The FT report mentions that the test involved a rocket carrying a hypersonic glide vehicle flying through low-orbit space before cruising toward its target. According to the report, although the missile didn’t hit its target by approximately 24 miles, the test displayed China’s remarkable advancement in hypersonic weapons.
However, Reuters reported in October 2021 that China clarified that the “hypersonic missile” mentioned by FT was a reusable space vehicle but did not identify if it was a rocket, space plane or some other type of aircraft. Reuters also said that China clarified that the tests happened in July, not August 2021.
Western analysts are skeptical about claims that China tested a space plane-based FOBS in July or August 2021.
In a 2021 paper for the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network (APLN), Bleddyn Bowen and Cameron Hunter mention that US space-based missile tracking satellites can detect missile launches and spacecraft burns from almost any point on or above Earth.
They write that the US possesses the world’s most sophisticated Space Situational Awareness (SSA) capability, noting that China has little to no chance of pulling off a nuclear surprise attack on the US, even with a FOBS.
Bowen and Hunter say that FOBS requires dozens, if not hundreds, of launch vehicles to provide a genuinely unpredictable strike capability and survive anti-satellite weaponry. They also note that FOBS is rendered moot by the prospect of US nuclear retaliation in case of such an attack.