France and Germany’s joint Main Ground Combat System (MGCS) project aims to redefine the future of tank warfare while serving as a test case for European defense collaboration.
Last month, multiple media sources reported that France and Germany are developing the MGCS project to replace France’s Leclerc and Germany’s Leopard 2 tanks by 2040-2045. Despite previous setbacks and delays, the defense ministers of both countries have reaffirmed their commitment to the initiative.
The project involves vital industry players like KNDS, a joint venture between Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) of Germany and Nexter of France. German tank manufacturer Rheinmetall is also involved in the venture.
The MGCS is envisioned as a modular system capable of manned and automated platforms. However, the project faces several challenges including disputes over the tank’s main gun caliber, differing strategic goals and industrial rivalries.
Germany has shown interest in modernizing the existing Leopard 2 model, partly due to strong demand following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while France insists on a fundamentally new development. Funding and political approval are also significant hurdles while the project’s ultimate success will require overcoming complex technical and geopolitical challenges.
The project is a test case for European defense collaboration in an environment marked by heightened security concerns caused by the Ukraine war. Both France and Germany have distinct visions for the MGCS, reflected in their diverging strategic priorities and technological preferences.
The German market is already dominated by Leopard 2 tanks, with exports increasing amid the Ukraine crisis. In contrast, France, having stopped production of the Leclerc in 2008, sees the MGCS as a way to rejuvenate its production lines. Contracts are expected to be signed in 2024.
Other EU countries may join the initiative once project specifications are finalized, with Italy and the Netherlands expressing interest in having observer status.
While MGCS details are unclear, European Security and Defense mentions in a January 2023 article that it will feature a hybrid propulsion system and offer environmental benefits and operational advantages such as reduced logistics chains, greater operational range, lower acoustic and thermal signatures and a “silent watch” capability.
The article says that it will feature weight-saving measures which include reduced crew size, lighter composite armor and greater reliance on active protection systems (APS), with the main vehicle’s hull also being used as the basis for support vehicle variants.
The European Secuirty and Defense article says the MGCS will feature a large caliber main gun with enhanced performance compared to the 120 mm guns used on the Leclerc and Leopard 2. It notes that Nexter is proposing the newly developed 140 mm Autoloaded and Scalable Outperforming Gun (ASCALON) as the unit’s main gun. ASCALON can accommodate a wide range of munitions and enable operators to choose among various desired terminal effects.
The article says it will also accommodate future intelligent tank munitions capable of engaging targets at beyond-line-of-sight/non-line-of-sight (BLOS/NLOS) ranges.
Other MGCS weapons may include directed energy weapons (DEW), hypersonic guided missiles, indirect fire weapons for BLOS/NLOS targets, machine guns or automatic cannons for counter-drone and air defense roles, and an electronic warfare suite. The tank will also feature digitization, maximum application of artificial intelligence, and a secure tactical network.
Still, France and Germany seem to be forwarding competing tank designs. In July 2022, the German news outlet Stern reported that both countries exhibited competing tank concepts, namely the French-German KNDS Enhanced Main Battle Tank (EMBT) and Germany’s KF51 Panther, at the Eurosatory 2022 arms expo.
The report notes that while the complete KF51 Panther was on display with its autoloading Rh-130 L/51 130 mm smoothbore gun, the KNDS EMBT had to do without its primary weapon, the 140 mm Autoloaded and Scalable Outperforming Gun (ASCALON) main gun and had a 120 mm gun and 30 mm autocannon installed.
The article also notes that the KF51 Panther’s main gun is 50% more effective than 120 mm guns, although it can only hold 30 rounds, compared to 42 rounds for the Leopard 2. However, the KF51 Panther makes up for that with improved accuracy per shot.
Stern notes that the KF51 Panther has a crew of three but can accommodate a fourth crew member who can control drones, loitering munitions or even an unmanned escort tank. Regarding defense, the source says the KF51 Panther features the Top Attack Protection System (TAPS), which can defeat top-attack missiles, while its hull incorporates elements from the Leopard 2.
As for the KNDS EMBT, Stern says that the 140 mm ASCALON won’t be ready until 2025, with turret modifications needed to house the larger gun. It also says that its hull is based on the Leopard 2 and that its chassis is ready for drive-by-wire, which is required for unmanned operation.
The Ukraine war has rekindled debate on the utility of tanks in modern warfare, with many analysts arguing for and against the relevance of tanks in a high-tech battlefield. In an August 2023 article for the US Army University Press, Curtis Buzzard and other writers argue that the tank’s current concept will remain relevant on future battlefields.
Buzzard and others claim tanks are crucial for operational flexibility, tactical combined arms maneuvers and national power projection. They argue that armored teams’ effectiveness against antiarmor systems demands integrated training, organizational flexibility and the means to sustain combat power.
They also say that Russia’s poor strategy and planning, including poor training and lack of combined arms enablers, are responsible for its massive tank losses in Ukraine more than the tank’s technical shortcomings.
Buzzard and others point out the deterrent value of tanks, mentioning that during the Cold War NATO’s armored formations represented national commitments to Europe’s defense and that today, nations most threatened by China or North Korea, such as India and South Korea, maintain some of the world’s largest tank fleets.
They emphasize that tanks play a vital role in ground warfare, enabling commanders to control and shape the conflict. They say that despite their high costs and logistical demands, the ability of tanks to deliver combat power at critical times and locations makes them essential for battlefield success.
On the other side of the debate, Peter Suciu argues in a March 2022 article for 1945 that the tank’s age may end as Russian losses in Ukraine mount. Suciu says that Western anti-tank weapons supplied to Ukraine, like the FGM-148 Javelin shoulder-fired missile or Next Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapon (NLAW), have proven so effective that tanks seem to have become a weapon from another era.
Suciu points out that despite advances in tank technology, they still face many of the same problems that slowed them down during their combat debut in World War I, noting that tank barriers and mud continue to be a challenge in the modern era, just as they were over a century ago. In his opinion, the tank’s current role may have been made obsolete by the advent of new guided missiles and drones.
He says that tanks will need to evolve with increased protection, but that may bring problems with size and weight, affecting mobility and sustainability. He points out that as modern guided-missile destroyers replaced massive battleships, tomorrow’s tanks will likely be smaller.
Tanks of the future, according to Suciu, could operate without a crew and be controlled from a remote location or function independently. He says they may be equipped with technology to protect their crew by keeping them out of harm’s way and used primarily for holding territory rather than advancing on it.
The Ukraine war has generated skyrocketing profits for arms makers. In January 2023, Reuters reported that Rheinmetall raised its sales expectations for 2025 due to higher demand for weapons fueled by the Ukraine war and called on Berlin to expedite big-ticket orders to modernize its armed forces.
Reuters also reported in June 2023 that Rheinmetall expects a boost to the company’s stock market value due to the Ukraine war and Europe’s increased defense spending.
“Our operating income in 2025 should be about 1.5 billion euros (US$1.6 billion), maybe even 1.7 billion euros. For a fair valuation, multiply that with a factor of 11 or 12. That gives you an order of magnitude… A valuation of 17 billion euros is realistic for Rheinmetall over the medium term,” said Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger, as quoted by Reuters.
The report notes that Rheinmetall’s sales are expected to grow between 11 to 12 billion euros in 2025, up from 10 to 11 billion euros from November last year.
Reuters notes that Rheinmetall’s current stock valuation is about 10.5 billion euros, with a 2022 operating income of 754 million euros and its stock market value tripling since December 2021.