The steady deterioration in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations over the past year and a half can be traced to the repeated clashes involving the Taliban and the Pakistani military on the Durand Line. The state of the relationship between the two countries is in marked contrast to the expectation prevalent in the Pakistani defense establishment two years ago.
The civil-military leadership in Pakistan was ecstatic when Taliban forces took over Kabul and the rest of Afghanistan on August 15, 2021. Many Pakistani leaders and strategic analysts assumed that the advent of Taliban rule would prove to be geopolitically advantageous.
However, recent have developments proved otherwise. Multiple nodes of tension are defining the Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship.
There have been increased clashes between Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Pakistan Army since 2022. More recently, in the first week of September, four Pakistani soldiers and 12 others were killed in clashes with TTP, which had launched a major offensive. The Pakistan Army had lost about six soldiers in a skirmish with the TTP a month earlier.
In January this year, a suicide bomb attack on a mosque in Peshawar killed about 100 people. While the local TTP commander took responsibility for the bombing, a TTP spokesman denied his group’s involvement.
The rise of TTP
TTP emerged in 2007 and is regarded as a Pakistani branch of the Afghan Taliban and reportedly has very close relations with it. There is significant ideological congruence between TTP and the Taliban.
Like the Taliban, TTP wants strict enforcement of sharia law and withdrawal of the military from Pashtun-dominated tribal areas, earlier called FATA. TTP members have declared allegiance to the head of the Afghan Taliban. TPP is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and figures in the United Nations sanctions list.
Islamabad is reportedly disappointed that the Taliban are not taking action against TTP despite numerous requests. Pakistan accuses the Taliban of harboring TTP militant forces. However, the Taliban in Kabul deny providing any safe spaces to TTP. The Taliban say they have issued a religious decree that bars people from waging jihad in other countries.
The Afghan Taliban released all TTP militants from jails when they took control of Afghanistan. It should be noted that the Afghan Taliban facilitated talks between TTP and the Pakistani government in 2022. TTP agreed to a ceasefire, and in return, the Pakistani government released TTP militants.
However, the ceasefire did not last long, and there were renewed hostilities. Because of the intensity of TTP actions, Pakistan is finding it hard to maintain control over large parts of its territory. There have been reports that TTP is using modern small weapons like M4 and M16 rifles and night vision equipment left by American forces at the time of their withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Moves against TTP
In addition to military operations, the response of Pakistan’s establishment to the growing TTP threat has been three-dimensional. First, there were frequent border closures to halt trade between the two countries.
For instance, the Torkham border crossing was closed for more than nine days in September. The border closure generated deep consternation among Afghans as hundreds of trucks lined up at the border for days carrying many perishable commodities such as vegetables and fruits.
Second, the Pakistani government announced it would levy a 10% processing fee on all imported items from Afghanistan. It claimed that the processing fee aimed to reduce smuggling and increase tax collections. Subsequently, the Pakistani government banned the export of 212 items, including textiles, home appliances, and agricultural commodities.
Pakistani authorities claim that many of these exports were being imported back into Pakistan illegally, and therefore, the ban was necessitated. There were reports of Afghan shipments, en route to India, being set afire in Pakistan. The development raised concerns that such vandalism resulted from growing distrust in the Afghan-Pakistan relationship.
Third, there are apprehensions in Pakistan that the presence of Afghan nationals is contributing to the growing incidence of terrorism. Interior Minister Sarfraz Bugti claimed that “14 of 24 suicide bombings in the country this year were carried out by Afghan nationals.”
Since Afghan nationals were involved in various attacks, the Pakistani government has ordered that all Afghan refugees illegally living in the country – an estimated 1.7 million people – should leave by November. It is not certain how Pakistan would deport more than a million people, and it constitutes a tactic to pressure the Taliban.
Identifying, detaining and then deporting such a large number of people would be a logistical nightmare. Further, it has raised concerns, including from the United Nations, of possible massive human rights violations.
Afghan Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid stated that Pakistan’s attitude and proposed policies were “unacceptable,” adding that “the Pakistani side should reconsider its plan.” Subsequently, the Taliban reportedly stated that Afghans living in Pakistan are not refugees as they live on “Afghan soil, since the Durand Line is invalid.”
Pakistan-Afghanistan border tensions have a long history. For long, many in Afghanistan refused to accept the Durand Line as the border between the two countries. From an Afghan perspective, large swaths of Pashtun land are currently under Pakistan’s control because of the Durand Line, which was created during British colonial rule.
For decades, Pakistan has intervened in the politics of Afghanistan. Pakistani security agencies have sought to blur various lines, such as territorial boundaries, and undermine inter-ethnic relations. Such persistent blurring of lines is now coming to haunt Pakistan.
With Pakistan heading for elections, deep internal discord and a severe economic crisis, countering TTP will be challenging. Further, the idea of the Durand Line as an unfair boundary for Pashtuns is getting re-energized.