The Philippines and China are on a literal collision course at sea after their boats collided on October 22 near the contested Second Thomas Shoal in the bubbling South China Sea. Both sides blamed the other for the incident as diplomatic tempers flared in a maritime zone with high geopolitical stakes.
A China Coast Guard vessel collided with a Philippines-contracted resupply boat at about 6:00 am on Sunday approximately 25 kilometers east-northeast of the BRP Sierra Madre grounded vessel outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal, a Philippine task force said in a statement. It claimed China’s “provocative, irresponsible and illegal action” imperiled the Filipino crew.
China’s foreign ministry fired back in a statement saying the two Philippine supply boats and two coast guard ships entered disputed waters and were transporting “illegal building materials” to warships.
The collisions took place after the Philippine boats ignored warnings and approached Chinese vessels in an unsafe manner, China’s statement claimed. “The responsibility lies entirely with the Philippine side,” which seriously violated the international maritime collision-avoidance rules, it said.
Beijing said “[o]ur operations were professional, standardized, legitimate and legal” and that its coast guard vessel “intercepted the trespassing Philippine ship in accordance with the law even though multiple warnings were ineffective.” The statement did not say which law it referred to.
Hot and heavy accusations
Philippine military officials have since entered the verbal fray.
“We will not be deterred and we will continue to resupply our troops in BRP Sierra Madre [grounded vessel] despite provocations,” said Philippine National Security Adviser Secretary Eduardo Ano shortly after a collision at sea between Philippine and Chinese coast guard forces at the hotly-contested Second Thomas Shoal.
Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos, commander of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Western Command (WESCOM) near the disputed feature, squarely blamed China for the clash while maintaining that “our resupply sorties have always been regular and routinary.”
He said his troops have dealt with “Chinese vessels’ dangerous maneuvers with utmost patience, competence, and professionalism to avoid any accidents or untoward incidents.”
Newly appointed PCG Commandant Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan, meanwhile, accused China of “provocative, irresponsible and reckless conduct”, while emphasizing the Philippines’ determination to avoid “escalating tensions.”
The resupply mission to the grounded vessel BRP Sierra Madre, which serves as a de facto Philippine base on the Second Thomas Shoal, has been a joint effort between the Philippine Navy (PN) and the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG).
As a low-tide elevation within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ), per an arbitral tribunal ruling at the Hague in 2016, the Second Thomas Shoal cannot legally be claimed as a territory by China, whose expansive nine-dash line claim was nullified on the legal basis of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
With the US seemingly bogged down in multiple conflicts in Ukraine and now Israel, China is clearly testing the waters in the South China Sea.
Apart from reinforcing its expansive claims, the Asian superpower is also seeking to intimidate the Ferdinand Marcos Jr administration, which has pivoted back to Western allies in defiance of Beijing’s earlier expectations.
As a result, there are growing fears that China may resort to short, sharp kinetic operations to regain the initiative and reimpose its will over the contested waters and put down the Philippines’ rising challenge contested territories.
Amid growing concerns of an armed confrontation, key allies including the US are coming to Manila’s rhetorical defense.
“The United States condemns [China’s] latest disruption of a legal Philippine resupply mission to Ayungin Shoal [Second Thomas Shoal], putting the lives of Filipino service members at risk,” declared the US Ambassador to Manila MaryKay Carlson on X, formerly known as Twitter. “We stand with our #FriendsPartnersAllies in protecting [Philippine flag] sovereignty and in support of a #FreeAndOpenIndoPacific,” she added.
Separately, the US State Department released a statement, whereby it reiterated that the “1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, and aircraft – including those of its Coast Guard – anywhere in the South China Sea.”
Despite Washington’s strong reassurances and the Pentagon’s expanding military footprint on Philippine soil under the Philippine-US Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), there are rising doubts in Asia about America’s wherewithal and ability to constrain China’s growing assertiveness in nearby waters.
In a major speech last week, President Joe Biden insisted that the US can conduct wars in multiple conflict zones in support of allies across the world. Maintaining that “American leadership is what holds the world together,” he sought additional defense aid of US$61.4 billion to aid Ukraine against Russia and $14.3 billion for Israel amid the ongoing military operations in Gaza.
Last year, Ukraine received almost $47 billion in defense aid from Washington alone, while Israel has been the beneficiary of more than $300 billion since its founding.
Short Sharp War
As for the Indo-Pacific, Biden sought a mere $2 billion in additional funding, underscoring the Pentagon’s hard pivot back to traditional theaters of concern, namely the Middle East and Europe.
Many analysts were confounded by America’s apparent new defense priorities since the Pentagon has repeatedly identified China as the greatest challenge to US global leadership. As many as 50 percent of Americans also see China as the greatest external threat to the US, a recent Pew Research Centre survey shows.
This has placed US allies such as the Philippines, which has extremely limited defense capabilities to confront China, in a particularly vulnerable position. Since 2015, the US’ total defense aid to the Philippines has been around $1 billion, the most in the region but a relatively paltry sum compared to America’s defense aid to allies in other theaters.
Since coming to power last year, Marcos Jr has progressively embraced expanded defense cooperation with the Pentagon to keep Beijing’s aggressive actions at bay. Failing to secure any major concessions on the maritime disputes during his trip to Beijing earlier this year, the Filipino president has increasingly placed his hopes in an American security umbrella under an expanded EDCA.
To China’s chagrin and surprise, Marcos Jr has effectively injected the Philippines into the Taiwan issue by granting the US military access to prized bases in the Southeast Asian nation’s northernmost provinces.
Frustrated by Manila’s more assertive stance, but now suddenly likely encouraged by Washington’s potential strategic overstretch, Beijing may soon push the envelope harder in the South China Sea.
In Philippine security circles, there is growing concern over the possibility that China may opportunistically engage in calibrated skirmishes, as it did vis-à-vis India in the Himalayas in recent years, to reimpose its will over the Philippines.
The Asian powerhouse has long relied on a “salami slicing” or “cabbage” strategy to expand its footprint in the South China Sea, always pushing just short of risking direct armed conflict or triggering the US-Philippine mutual defense treaty.
China’s smaller rivals have been struggling to respond to its “gray zone” provocations, most especially its growing reliance on militia-driven swarming tactics. But now, they also seemingly need to prepare for potential small-scale but bloody skirmishes.
Confronting extraordinary circumstances, China may now be tempted to resort to a “short sharp war” against certain of America’s Asian allies, some analysts suggest.
As leading naval strategist James Holmes notes, “There are two strains in Chinese strategic culture. One favors protracted war, the other prizes quick, decisive victory. We can put Mao Zedong’s face on the former, Sun Tzu’s on the latter.”
China’s risk appetite has likely increased due to the Philippines’ determination to refurbish its position in the Second Thomas Shoal, as well as its growing involvement in assisting America’s deterrence strategy over Taiwan.
China has made it clear that it will resort to force if necessary should the Philippines continue with its supposedly “provocative” actions, beginning with ongoing efforts to refurbish the BRP Sierra Madre, but also potentially granting US military access to northernmost bases close to Taiwan’s shores.
Short of a major diplomatic breakthrough or stronger signal of support from the US, the Philippines and China may soon graduate from collisions at sea to a short sharp war – with major implications for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X, formerly Twitter, at @Richeydarian