The US has announced ambitious plans to revamp its air and space operations to take on China in the Pacific, but it faces severe challenges in its implementation.
This month, the South China Morning Post reported that the US Air Force and Space Force are revamping their operations in the Western Pacific to deter China. According to the SCMP, US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has announced that the senior leadership will reorganize both services in the coming months to improve operations.
He emphasized that the USAF must adapt to counter the perceived threat from China, which has been upgrading its air and naval forces and rocket capabilities able to target US strategic military assets.
The SCMP says the USAF aims to implement these changes by January 2024, involving five teams focusing on organization, equipment, recruitment, training, personnel retention, readiness, and operational air and space mission support.
It notes that the USAF is now focusing on its “agile combat employment” concept, designed to enable a more flexible force and less reliance on large, fixed bases and infrastructure.
It also says the US is likely to focus on improving its qualitative technological advantages and increasing its engagement with allies in the region, including increasing fifth-generation-fighter training with partners, increasing and enhancing its military exercises in cooperation with Japan and South Korea, and engaging with other regional partners, including various Pacific Island nations.
The SCMP says pre-positioned stockpiles, access agreements, and surge-capable logistics will boost the lethality and sustainability of US military forces. It says this will reinforce deterrence against China through “distributed lethality,” making targeting more complex and forcing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to devote more resources to finding and attacking US and allied forces.
Over the years, China has made several notable advances in air, naval, and missile capabilities that could shift the military balance in the Pacific.
China improves airpower
One of these assets is the J-20 fifth-generation stealth fighter jet, China’s reply to the US F-22 Raptor and its poster child for its fighter program.
In February, Asia Times reported that China’s J-20 fighter is set to surpass US F-22 Raptor numbers, with its inventory of J-20As soon overtaking the US inventory of 187 F-22 Raptors. China may already have up to 200 airframes designed to match the F-22 in air-to-air combat and is using pulsating production lines to speed up its deliveries.
Further, China may be close to solving critical problems with its jet-engine technology, which has been a significant handicap for its jet fighters. In July, Asia Times reported that China’s J-20 stealth fighter has successfully flown with indigenous WS-15 jet engines, with a thrust rating comparable to the F-22’s Pratt & Whitney F119 engine, possibly giving the J-20 an edge in establishing air superiority.
The US has responded to those advancements by accelerating the production of sixth-generation fighter aircraft and looking into unmanned fighters.
In June, Asia Times reported that the US is set to launch its sixth-generation fighter program, with Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Northrop Grumman as likely significant contractors. The new fighter will have advanced capabilities like machine learning and drone swarms. The winner of the competition will be announced next year.
Further, Asia Times reported in March that the US had allocated $1.53 billion in funding for developing the next-generation carrier-based fighter, F/A-XX, to keep up with China’s advancements. The F/A-XX is expected to replace the F/A-18 family of fighters and complement the F-35B and F-35C fighters currently in use.
Moreover, Asia Times reported this month that the US will test an air-to-air combat drone under the LongShot program by General Atomics, awarded a $94 million contract by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). The unmanned-aircraft system will be dropped from a bomber or fighter to increase engagement range and mission effectiveness and act as a force multiplier to ensure a numbers advantage.
However, the US faces significant challenges in upgrading its airpower to stay ahead of China. Asia Times noted in October 2022 that China was making steady progress on its sixth-generation fighter jet, mirroring the same “systems-of-systems” approach as the US Air Force. The US may also have a narrow lead in fighter development, as it may get sixth-generation air dominance just a month before its competitors.
It isn’t clear if the US can match China’s drone production. Reuters noted this month that China shipped at least 282 large armed combat drones to 17 countries over the past decade, while the US exported just 12 over the same period to France and the UK.
China’s aircraft-carrier program is the flagship showcase of its massive naval modernization program, with the US seeking to contain the former’s growing force projection capabilities.
Asia Times noted in June 2022 that China’s latest Fujian carrier is a significant upgrade from previous models, featuring US-style flat hulls and catapults for launching aircraft.
The carrier group is part of an integrated national “combat system” intended to deter enemy carrier groups using land-based air or long-range missiles. It is expected to be able to blockade and strike Taiwan, cover China’s submarine force, and prevent US bombers in Guam from striking the invasion fleet.
Hitting a wall
In December 2022, Asia Times reported on US plans to construct a “missile wall” in the Pacific as a response. This marks a significant shift in strategy from acting independently to assisting allies in establishing their anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems.
The plan involves setting up a precision strike network in the First Island Chain (Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines) and an integrated air and missile defense network in the Second Island Chain (Bonin Islands, Guam, and Western New Guinea).
However, finding a US partner willing to host missile systems is challenging. The Philippines’ military weakness and political unpredictability, Thailand’s efforts to strengthen ties with China, South Korea’s vulnerability to Chinese pressure, Australia’s reluctance to get dragged into a conflict, and Japan’s long-standing reluctance to host explicitly offensive capabilities play against that plan.
Also, improvements in China’s second-strike capability pose a significant challenge to US forward bases in the Pacific and its nuclear posture.
Asia Times reported in April that China is now keeping at least one Type 094 nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) on patrol in the South China Sea, ensuring a second-strike capability against US and allied forces in case of a Taiwan conflict. The SSBNs are believed to be armed with the JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), which can hit the continental US from protected bastions in the South China Sea.
Although Asia Times has noted that the US has been upgrading its missile defenses on Guam and researching a next-generation homeland missile defense system, Guam’s disjointed defenses may not be effective against a saturation attack involving multiple types of advanced weapons, such as drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and hypersonic weapons.
Also, delays in fielding the Next-Generation Interceptor (NGI) could negatively impact US strategic security and extended deterrence to its allies.