While Western pundits have warned that Ukraine’s prospects for a successful counteroffensive are bleak and that hopes of retaking Crimea have been dashed, Ukraine’s marine drones have consistently outmaneuvered the once-dominant Russian Navy, pushing it into retreat at sea.
Ukraine’s rising marine drone capabilities are still evolving, but as they advance, many expect more aggressive strikes against Russian naval assets in Crimea and across the Black Sea region as the war grinds ahead.
At the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion in early March 2022, the Ukrainian Navy sank its own flagship frigate, the seasoned Hetman Sahaidachny, to prevent its seizure. That left Ukraine with only a handful of riverine patrol vessels to engage Russia on the open sea.
Russia, on the other hand, had its full Black Sea Fleet at its disposal, including ships captured and reflagged from the Ukrainian Navy when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea. Ukraine lost over 80% of its naval capabilities in the 2014 Crimea invasion.
Despite boasting the world’s second-largest navy, over the past year Russia has been forced to relocate much of its Black Sea Fleet, including all its Kilo-class submarines, from Sevastopol in occupied Crimea to Novorossiysk farther east on the Black Sea coast in Russia – more than 570 kilometers away from Odesa and other targets in Ukraine.
In May 2023, a Ukrainian maritime drone struck the Russian reconnaissance vessel Ivan Khuprirs in the Black Sea. Russia asserted it had succeeded in repelling that attack, but in June 2023 Ukraine intensified its offensive, deploying six remote-controlled maritime drones to target the Russian intelligence vessel Priazovye, approximately 300 kilometers from Sevastopol, challenging Russian naval dominance beyond Crimea.
Ukraine’s growing maritime abilities were once again underlined when its maritime drones incapacitated a Russian warship and an oil tanker in early August this year.
Former US Navy Admiral James George Stavridis remarked after the attacks, “We’re at a juncture in military evolution akin to the game-changers like Agincourt or Pearl Harbor. Expensive manned surface warships now face existential threats from affordable drones.”
Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s Security and Defense Council, said that “with each new combat mission, Ukrainian combat UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) and maritime drones become more accurate, operators more experienced, combat coordination more effective – and manufacturers get the opportunity to improve tactical and technical characteristics.”
During the August attack, the Russian oil tanker “SIG,” built in 2014 with a 5,000-ton capacity, was targeted with 450 kilograms of TNT while ferrying fuel for the Russian military. This tanker was integral to fueling Russian operations in Syria and was under US sanctions.
Ukraine’s maritime drones are changing the complexion of the war by forcing Russia to commit more resources to protect the ports, warships and cargo ships it uses to transport weapons, fuel and other military supplies.
On August 5, Ukraine issued a stern warning by proclaiming that six Russian Black Sea ports, namely Taman, Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, and Sochi, were in a “war risk area.” Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said, “There are no more safe waters or peaceful harbors for you in the Black and Azov Seas.”
Kyrylo Budanov, chief of Ukraine’s military intelligence, has claimed that domestically-produced sea drones have paralyzed Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and are now being mass-produced.
On August 23, Budanov was quoted as saying that approximately 30-40% of these drones successfully strike their targets, causing Russian ships to avoid venturing north of Sevastopol due to the risk of attacks. Asia Times could not independently confirm the claim.
Nearly two months into Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine sank the Moskva missile cruiser, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, using Neptune anti-ship missiles. While a morale boost for Ukraine, it didn’t shift the power dynamics in the Black Sea. That shift would begin when Ukraine introduced maritime drones to the war.
On July 17, 2023, the Crimean bridge, a prime symbol of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s imperial ambitions in the Black Sea region, sustained significant damage in a drone assault.
It marked the second attack on the crucial bridge after Ukraine’s first strike in October 2022, underscoring the challenges Russia faces in protecting the bridge against cheap Ukrainian drones. Apart from its important symbolism, the bridge is a vital resupply route for Russia’s war effort.
Vasyl Maliuk, head of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), said that the drone used in the recent bridge attack is known as “Sea Baby.” He claimed, “These sea drones are a groundbreaking innovation by the Security Service of Ukraine. They’re exclusively ours, with no private entities involved.”
He went on to explain how these drones were deployed to target the Crimean bridge with a massive 850 kilograms of explosives to deliver maximum impact against its support pillars. The drones were also utilized in the August operation to strike a Russian warship, the Olengorsky Gornyak, as well as the SIG tanker.
Ukraine’s Western allies, including the US, are closely watching how Ukraine is successfully using maritime drone attacks.
Despite the Western interest, Maliuk stated, “They do not participate in our operations or provide us with any equipment or anything else. These drones are produced at an underground production facility in the territory of Ukraine. The targets I’ve mentioned are legitimate targets according to the Ukrainian and international laws.”
Mykhailo Podoliak, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, has said “What is happening in the Black Sea? Drones are changing the rules of the game, returning the waters to full-fledged foreign jurisdiction, and ultimately destroying the value of the Russian fleet. In fact, they are returning everyone to the international law of the sea…”
Ukraine’s rapid development of maritime drones, technically termed “uncrewed surface vessels” (USVs), has resulted in vessels replete with state-of-the-art features such as integrated explosives and real-time cameras. These subaquatic drones are designed to broadcast clear visuals straight to their human handlers.
Ukraine’s government recently revealed that each maritime drone costs US$250,000. For reference and comparison, the cost of each HIMARS long-range missile is $150,000 while a full launch costs around $1,000,000.
But sea drones are more than cost-effective. Ukraine’s USVs can blaze across the ocean at speeds of 80 kilometers per hour and boast a travel range of over 800 kilometers. Each drone carries a 350-kilogram warhead (in some cases, up to 850 kilograms) and can sustain operations for as long as 60 hours. Satellite-controlled versions, armed with day-night vision cameras, infrared vision and explosive fuses, act as silent surface water assassins.
Scott Savitz, a senior engineer from the US-based Rand Corp think tank, has pointed out the inherent challenge in countering low profile and elusive USVs, especially when they are deployed in swarms.
Ukraine’s advancements in sea drone warfare are being noticed in high Western places. The US Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer, Bill LaPlante, has referred to Ukraine’s use of drones in the war as a “wake-up call.”
Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt is literally buying into Ukraine’s homegrown drone industry. Along with other investors, Schmidt has pledged $10 million to D3, a Ukrainian accelerator focusing on drones and related defense tech. “The future of war will be dictated and waged by drones,” Schmidt wrote in the Wall Street Journal.
Ukraine is on the path to becoming a global drone production leader, according to Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.
“We have removed the majority of industry blockers to ease the running of a business. We help Ukrainian UAV manufacturers to receive all kinds of required approvals, we contract their developments and supply them directly to the frontline,” Fedorov has been quoted as saying.
Through the “Army of Drones” initiative, initially bolstered by President Zelensky’s UNITED24 fundraising drive, Ukraine has boosted its native unmanned weapons industry.
Ukraine is also making headway with so-called uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUV). The newly-revealed Toloka TLK-150, for instance, is an underwater drone that is smaller than previous generations of Ukrainian naval kamikaze drones used against Russian ships in Crimea. It can remain in standby mode for up to three months; the drone doesn’t dive deep, but rather swims near the surface.
The innovation behind the Toloka, which reportedly will soon be production-ready, is being driven by BRAVE1, a key Ukrainian defense tech initiative. Established in 2023, BRAVE1 streamlines collaboration between the Ukrainian government, military and private tech firms.
This type of public-private partnership represents the sort of tech development that Ukraine has successfully employed in the war. This has sped up the process for tech companies to work with the military, reducing previous wait times from two years to just six weeks.
Ukraine’s scrappiness in tech development also extends to its fundraising efforts. United24, the official fundraising platform of the Ukrainian government, has turned to crowdfunding to help finance the development of more drones.
The online community of “NAFO Fellas” pooled together $250,000 to purchase a drone, cheekily dubbing it “Raccoon’s Revenge” – a nod to a raccoon Russian soldiers famously stole during their retreat from Kherson.
In August 2023, the Ukrainian Navy established a specialized brigade dedicated specifically to unmanned maritime drones.
Vice Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa, Ukraine’s navy chief, said that after the war Ukraine will publish a textbook on naval warfare for distribution to NATO’s military academies. He has said that that no other country can match Ukraine’s war-time experience with naval drones.
Nations including China are undoubtedly closely monitoring Ukraine’s use of drones in the war. Ukraine’s ability to develop and deploy drones for traversing the vast expanse of the Black Sea to attack Russian targets has also garnered the attention of Taiwan, which is reportedly looking to invest in similar technology to counter China in a conflict scenario.
Despite lacking a significant naval fleet, Ukraine’s use of drones has been instrumental in preventing Russia from dominating the maritime battlespace and achieving naval supremacy in the Black Sea while at the same time offering a potent hint of the future of drone warfare.
David Kirichenko (davishjr@gmail.com), besides being a freelance journalist, volunteers in the Ukrainian war effort as a humanitarian aid worker. He tweets @DVKirichenko.