Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov aims to position his country as a major Eurasian hub for trade in goods and services. Although it once seemed far-fetched, the goal now appears increasingly to be within grasp. Aiding his ambition is Turkmenistan’s location on the shores of the strategically vital Caspian Sea and its possession of the world’s fifth-largest proven gas reserves.
In a highly polarized world that places a premium on reliable trade corridors and secure access to energy, Berdimuhamedov understands that the successful transformation of Turkmenistan into a major transit hub will depend on skillful diplomacy, strategic thinking, and common sense. Any other approach could compromise the country’s neutrality – a major national asset and a source of stability as the Great Game plays out all around it.
Since becoming head of state in March 2022, Berdimuhamedov has shifted his country’s foreign policy from one of “strategic isolation” to what might be called “Turkmenistan First,” whereby priority is given to its national interests. As a practitioner of realpolitik, he sees globalist ambitions as folly and accepts multilateralism and dialogue as the norm in inter-state relations.
The Turkmen head of state has managed to turn the West’s excommunication of Russia and growing confrontation with China into valuable and consequential business opportunities.
He has exploited for his country’s benefit Brussels’ efforts to redirect goods and services around Russian territory, Beijing’s enormous appetite for energy resources, and Moscow’s search for more robust overland and trans-Caspian export corridors to the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea.
Turkmenistan is well aware of Brussels’ intense interest in the Trans-Caspian Pipeline initiative and Moscow’s in the North-South Transport Corridor to the Persian Gulf.
Berdimuhamedov is more than happy to talk turkey with China, the European Union, Russia, the United States, and anyone else as long as they refrain from politicizing commercial and diplomatic relations or presenting Ashgabat with faits accomplis.
Turkmenistan First
While reliable statistics regarding Turkmenistan’s economic performance are hard to come by, most knowledgeable sources suggest that Berdimuhamedov’s “Turkmenistan First” foreign policy (this writer’s phrase) has produced net benefits in the form of increased trade and investment flows, new infrastructure and logistics projects, and greater diplomatic traffic into and out of Ashgabat since the Turkmen ditched the unspoken policy of “strategic isolation” in early 2022.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts Turkmenistan’s GDP to grow at a rate of 5.8% in 2022 and 2023. According to World Economics, “Turkmenistan’s compound annual growth rate over the last 10, five and three years was 6.9%, 5.8% and 5.6% respectively.” These are impressive results, though how accurate depends on the reliability of the underlying numbers.
The real rate of growth may be lower if the underlying numbers are inflated, or higher if turnover from the informal economy and foreign remittances could be measured more accurately. Whatever the case, it’s clear that Turkmenistan is experiencing relatively robust growth.
Turkmenistan’s pragmatism in foreign affairs has attracted the attention of diplomats from Ankara to Beijing and from Delhi to Moscow. The Central Asian republics, India, Iran and Turkey have noticeably ramped up their diplomatic and commercial outreach to Ashgabat since the middle of 2022 — and Berdimuhamedov and his minister of foreign affairs have been reciprocating with trips throughout the region.
London and Brussels, despite their penchant for issuing upbeat pledges of amity and cooperation, seem, for whatever reason, unable to come up with the cash for big infrastructure projects. Perhaps it’s Turkmenistan’s over-regulated environment, its protective stance toward its traditional religious values, or its apparent reluctance to take sides in the geopolitical crisis now roiling much of the world – not least, the ex-Soviet realm.
China and Russia
Turkmenistan, to the annoyance of the United States and the European Union, has not shunned Chinese and Russian overtures for strategic partnership. Realpolitik is proving a more potent driver of relationships than ideology-inspired blandishments from distant shores.
Berdimuhamedov visited China for the first time in January. While in Beijing, he and President Xi Jinping upgraded their diplomatic engagement to the level of a “comprehensive strategic partnership,” on a par with the relationships China maintains with the other four Central Asian countries.
The door is open for additional long-term non-energy-related development initiatives and strengthens the China + Central Asia initiative, a competitor to the US-led Central Asia + United States arrangement (C+C5 and C5+1, respectively.)
China, of course, prioritizes energy relations with Turkmenistan. During their meetings, Berdimuhamedov and Xi underscored the importance of completing, as expeditiously as possible, Line D — the new section of the Central Asia–China Gas Pipeline (Lines A, B, and C already exist) — in order to raise the total capacity of natural gas exports to China to 85 billion cubic meters per year.
In Beijing, Berdimuhamedov invited Xi to Ashgabat. Expect him to visit the Turkmen capital in the course of 2023.
On January 19, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin traveled to Ashgabat with more than 200 businessmen to attend a Russo-Turkmen business forum. Eleven days later, the chairman of the Russian State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, addressed the parliament of Turkmenistan, underscoring the strategic nature of Russo-Turkmen relations.
On February 16-17, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk met with Berdimuhamedov to discuss bilateral Russo-Turkmen trade and economic partnerships.
Diplomacy works in strange ways, and in Central Asia, nothing moves the ball forward like face-to-face meetings. In this connection, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken sent the wrong message to Turkmenistan’s leadership when he skipped visiting Ashgabat on his recent swing through Central Asia before heading to India for the Group of Twenty meet.
The distance between Tashkent and Ashgabat is only about 1,000 kilometers – a flight of slightly more than one hour. In any case, unlike China, Russia, Turkey and pretty much everyone else, Washington has remained low key about Turkmenistan, presumably keeping its powder dry for bigger things down the road.
Berdimuhamedov’s “Turkmenistan First” foreign policy appears to be serving his country well. There is every reason to believe that Turkmenistan is well on its way to becoming a pivotal north-south, east-west transit hub in Central Asia. The message from Ashgabat is clear – all are welcome to contribute to the development of the country, but progress must be on our terms.