PHNOM PENH — Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen could step down in the middle of next year as succession plans to hand power to his eldest son are seemingly on a new fast track.
After eliminating any meaningful political opposition and thus assured victory at next July’s general election, Hun Sen now plans to step down as prime minister and assume a more overarching role, making way for Hun Manet, 44, the de facto military chief, to replace him as premier, authoritative sources told Asia Times.
The long-ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) has already confirmed Manet as the prime minister-in-waiting and his younger acolytes are quickly rising through the ranks. Hun Sen probably likely reckons there are now few succession risks while the 70-year-old is increasingly conscious about his own health, analysts say.
This month he tested positive for Covid-19 for the first time since the pandemic, bringing his health issues to the political fore. “The transition is certainly being rushed and it would not be at all surprising if it takes place next year,” a well-placed source who requested anonymity told Asia Times.
Hun Sen has been plotting a dynastic succession for years. But it was once believed he would step back from frontline politics in 2028, following the election after next.
Some years ago, analysts suspected that he would attempt a so-called “Singapore-style” succession of having a senior official outside of the Hun family serve as an interim prime minister before Hun Manet’s fated ascendency.
However, Hun Sen is believed to have dropped that idea sometime in 2020. “Strike while the iron is hot,” said Sophal Ear, associate dean and associate professor at the Thunderbird School of Global Management at Arizona State University. “He’s got things the way he wants them now, so this is his chance to make it happen. Five years from now, things could be different,” Ear added.
That’s certainly the case. The economy is in relatively good health, with the Asian Development Bank projecting GDP growth of 5.3% this year and around 6.2% in 2023.
Geopolitically, after years of deteriorating relations with the West, there are now clear efforts by both sides to normalize and improve ties. US President Joe Biden’s visit to Phnom Penh earlier this month for an annual regional summit was mostly positive, according to observers.
Politically, Hun Sen’s rule is almost uncontested. The Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), the biggest opposition threat in decades, is now all but dead after having been forcibly dissolved in 2017 on spurious charges of plotting a US-backed coup. Its top leaders are now either in exile or jail.
A new opposition party, the Candlelight Party, lacks popularity and is confronted by the perennial threat of its own dissolution. Recent weeks have also witnessed a slew of opposition defections to the ruling CPP.
In the civil sphere, trade unionism has been killed off after its heyday in the mid-2010s. Little independent media exists, having been forced to close down or sell off after 2017. NGOs know to self-censor.
More significantly, Hun Sen has quieted intra-party opposition, for now. Factions loyal to Interior Minister Sar Khang and Defense Minister Tea Banh seemingly went along with Hun Manet’s nomination in December, on the apparent premise that they will share in the succession spoils.
Some analysts suspected that if Hun Manet waited until 2028 to take the top job, he would have had to become a minister after next year’s election to gain political experience. Replacing Tea Banh, 77, as defense minister seemed the only viable slot for the current military chief.
But an early succession directly to the premiership would allow Tea Banh and Sar Kheng, the main factional rivals to the Hun family, to remain in their powerful posts while Manet learns the ropes. An early succession would also mean any rival within the CPP has less time to plot against the plan.
Manet’s associates allegedly celebrated a little too enthusiastically after his nomination by the CPP in December, which may have led to a few altercations. But with the next general election only nine months away, time is running out for any intra-party challenger. No CPP grandee will want to grandstand months before an election.
As well as Hun Manet’s succession to prime minister, the ruling CPP will also undergo a “generational succession.” The process of promoting a younger generation of officials has also already begun in earnest.
In October, for instance, Veng Sakhon was sacked as agriculture minister and replaced by Dith Tina, 43, a former secretary of state for the Ministry of Mines and Energy. He’s also the son of the Supreme Court justice Dith Munty, a Hun Sen stalwart.
Much of this reshuffle will take place after next July’s general election, but a list of purported future ministers is making the rounds in Phnom Penh. Asia Times understands but cannot confirm that many of the promotions will go to bureaucracy officials known for their technocratic experience. “A lot of the transition is already taking place,” said Ou Virak, president of the Phnom Penh-based Future Forum think tank.
That, however, hasn’t halted the rumor mill. There is gossip that Sar Kheng plans to mount a last-minute bid to become interim leader and that the ruling party’s Permanent Committee, its elite decision-making body, could yet disrupt the succession plan.
There are also suggestions that Hun Sen is threatening to form his own party if the CPP’s Permanent Committee refuses to fully accept his son’s succession. But that appears to be purely a power play by Hun Sen to get his way, since his departure would tear the CPP and the government apart, of which the party’s other grandees are fully aware. “I’ve heard that theory for years, at least from 2014,” said Ou Virak. “I don’t believe any of it.”
Even after stepping down as prime minister, Hun Sen is expected to still pull political strings from a behind-the-scenes position. New constitutional changes enacted in July have reduced the power of the National Assembly to censure a prime minister or cabinet ministers, meaning that the dominant political party in the chamber (which is guaranteed to be the CPP) now has even more authority over personnel issues.
Hun Sen has already confirmed he plans to stay on as president of the ruling CPP after stepping down as prime minister, so the recent constitutional changes have been interpreted as his way of empowering that post over the National Assembly. Hun Sen said explicitly last month that as party president he will retain the power to dismiss officials.
Some analysts reckon that Hun Sen will also seek to take the post of Senate president, a normally ceremonial role but one that makes the holder acting head of state when King Norodom Sihamoni is out of the country, which he frequently is. The Senate president can also sign legislation into law in the king’s absence, a position that would grant Hun Sen considerable power when his son is prime minister.
Further easing succession risks, Hun Manet is fairly popular at the moment. He regularly opens pagodas, schools and hospitals, tasks his father normally handles — and which he’ll be expected to do as prime minister.
Photos on his personal Facebook page, which has far more followers than almost any Cambodian official other than his father, now show him mostly in civilian dress rather than military fatigues.
Meanwhile, he has consolidated his role as president of the CPP’s youth wing while his charity work has won certain plaudits. The Samdech Techo Voluntary Youth Doctor Association, a CPP-aligned charity that Hun Manet runs, played a key role in Cambodia’s successful handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, including through its vaccination drive.
Yet the deciding factor in all of this will be Hun Sen himself. Andrew Nachemson, a journalist, speculated earlier this year in a news article that one of Hun Sen’s biggest obstacles “may be his own reluctance to walk away.”
Indeed, now 70, Hun Sen has been prime minister since the age of 32. As ever, the Phnom Penh grapevine buzzes with rumors of his ill health — and that was before he tested positive for Covid-19 earlier this month. And it wouldn’t be the first time that questions have been raised about the health of the former Khmer Rouge soldier and chain smoker.
But clearly cognizant of the potential risks to his family and party if he fails to stage manage his own dynastic handover, an expedited fade to the political background seems increasingly like the sensible thing to do for a leader who has seldom stuck to a conventional script over the past 37 years.
Follow David Hutt on Twitter at @davidhuttjourno