SINGAPORE – Former Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak’s jailing for corruption has accentuated a deepening divide inside the ruling United Malays National Organization (UMNO), one that threatens a party-splitting schism with new general elections on the horizon.
One UMNO camp seeks to distance itself from the newly incarcerated but still influential ex-leader, while a rival faction embraces his “justice denied” narrative, a persecution theme analysts expect it to play up to win votes on the hustings.
Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob appears to prefer looking forward and forgoing the politics of grievance in favor of economic deliverables. The premier is expected to personally table what will be the country’s largest-ever national budget next month, which analysts say is likely to presage the dissolution of parliament and calling of early elections.
UMNO president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, on the other hand, has made clear he is backing Najib to the hilt. Observers speculate that the party leader, who faces a possible corruption and money laundering conviction that could likewise send him to prison, intends to engineer Ismail’s removal after an expected election victory in his capacity as the Barisan Nasional (BN) governing coalition’s chairman.
“Zahid and Najib remain very influential within the UMNO party hierarchy,” said Francis Hutchinson of the Malaysia Studies Program at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. “The party machinery has publicly come out in favor of Zahid and Najib, and the ‘old guard’ is sending out the message that aspiring candidates for parliament need to toe the line if they want to be fielded.”
Zahid’s position as UMNO leader and BN chairman gives him discretion over the selection of election candidates and ultimately who the coalition decides to appoint as premier if it wins the election. UMNO notably amended its constitution earlier this year to allow for internal party elections to be held six months after a general election, preventing a challenge to Zahid’s rule.
Ismail ranks lower in the party hierarchy and is UMNO’s first prime minister who isn’t the party’s president. While it is unclear which of the two leaders and their respective factions will win out, many agree that Zahid’s position has weakened since Najib’s imprisonment, which Hutchinson says has “strengthened PM Ismail’s profile with the wider Malaysian public.”
“One key process is the first of Zahid’s own court cases, which [he] is undergoing. From a legal point of view, things do not look good for him and the recently displayed independence of the judiciary will not reassure him,” said Hutchinson, who noted how a resurgent navy ship procurement scandal has put Zahid, a former defense minister, and other older UMNO leaders on the back foot.
Should the UMNO president be convicted when the court hands down its verdict expected in November, he can still appeal but by convention would hand his job to an acting party chief, likely UMNO deputy president Mohamad Hasan. In that scenario, analysts say Ismail could assume the BN chairmanship and ultimately be more secure in retaining his job as prime minister.
How Ismail intends to answer rising grassroots calls to protect convicted UMNO leaders is another question. Najib, 69, began his internment at the country’s largest prison in Kajang on August 23 after the Federal Court upheld his guilty verdict and 12-year sentence for illegally receiving about US$10 million from a former unit of the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) state fund.
Following his imprisonment, supporters of the ex-premier rallied outside the Istana Negara, or national palace, to submit a memorandum to royal officials petitioning the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, Malaysia’s constitutional monarch, for a royal pardon. That echoed UMNO politicians who have voiced support for a pardon on claims that Najib was selectively prosecuted and denied a fair trial.
Calls to “free Najib” could become a key campaign slogan depending on the balance of power within UMNO, Hutchinson suggests. “The old guard has chosen to focus on Najib and his victimization. This plays well with parts of UMNO’s base, but this is not necessarily a good electoral strategy as it will not bring in new voters. Non-Malay voters are unlikely to be attracted by this message.”
Parliament speaker Azhar Azizan Harun has confirmed that the former premier filed a petition for a royal pardon on September 2. Malaysian law allows Najib to retain his seat as a parliamentarian while the application for a pardon is pending. If denied, he will be disqualified as a lawmaker and barred from contesting in elections for five years after his release.
The ex-premier’s lawyers have also filed a judicial review of the Federal Court’s judgment, but such applications are rarely successful in Malaysia. His pardon application is complicated by the fact that it would only be in relation to the offense for which he was convicted. Najib has at least four other pending corruption-related court cases, all of which carry potential jail terms and heavy financial penalties.
In a recent interview with Malaysiakini, former attorney-general Tommy Thomas, who initiated the court cases against Najib, said a quick pardon would be “legally impossible” given that other applications by prisoners interned for years would take precedent. He stated that by convention a prisoner would need to serve one-third of their jail sentence prior to applying for a pardon.
“To date, the Agong has been a stickler for due process, consultation and deliberate decision-making. It will be hard for him to move to pardon Najib quickly, given the clear verdicts at three levels of the judiciary, as well as the fact that there are four other court cases ongoing,” said the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute academic.
By law, the king may grant a full pardon after having consulted or been recommended by the Pardons Board. “Should he free Najib now, this would raise questions as to the impartiality of the Agong. However, it is possible that events in the future, including the outcome of the elections, may change the relative weight given to different aspects of the case,” Hutchinson added.
At a special UMNO briefing in late August held in support of Najib, attendees tellingly booed when Zahid, the event organizer, referenced the prime minister in a speech. Local media reported that Ismail was given an ultimatum at an August 24 political bureau meeting where he was purportedly told to hold the general election as soon as possible or be sacked from the party.
Ismail denied that he was threatened with expulsion and insisted that the meeting was amicable. His government nonetheless soon after announced that the budget would be presented on October 7, three weeks earlier than initially scheduled, fueling speculation that an early general election would be called in response to persistent demands by Zahid’s faction.
Some analysts think Ismail could dissolve parliament immediately after the budget announcement to make way for snap polls as soon as October or early November. Others, however, believe they will more likely be held sometime in 2023 – potentially in February or March after Chinese New Year but before Ramadan with parliament being dissolved in July at the latest – given that Ismail stands to gain from his rival Zahid’s likely conviction.
“Ismail may use the tabling of Budget 2023 as his last salvo to prove that he can be given the due momentum to remain in his position,” said Hafidzi Razali, a senior analyst at the BowerGroupAsia consultancy. “Despite being aware that Zahid’s main motivation is to save himself from court charges, Ismail has yet to show his next move to counter this influence.”
Malaysia’s next election isn’t due until September 2023, but Zahid’s camp has argued the time is right to call the election following recent BN victories at state polls, while Ismail has maintained that rising inflation should first be brought under control. His tune has since changed, acknowledging in recent interviews that global economic conditions could worsen by next year.
Observers note that Zahid will not be eligible to run in the election if convicted, which is seen as a key factor behind his camp’s months-long pressure campaign for early polls. Meanwhile, with Najib unable to defend his seat, local media say his 44-year-old son, Mohd Nizar Najib, may contest in Pekan, his father’s stronghold constituency since the late 1970s.
For the ex-premier, corruption trials and the possibility of life imprisonment are a literal family affair. A week after being jailed, his wife and former first lady, Rosmah Mansor, 70, was found guilty on bribery-related charges linked to maintenance contracts for a solar power project and sentenced to 10 years in prison along with a 970 million ringgit ($216 million) fine.
Rosmah, who maintains her innocence, is widely believed to have wielded an outsized informal role in her husband’s administration and gained notoriety for her extravagant lifestyle and penchant for luxury handbags and expensive jewelry. While she remains free on bail pending appeal, many see the court’s judgment as a clear sign that political “kleptocrats” are no longer untouchable.
“If PM Ismail is able to withstand pressure for elections for a little longer, it is likely that his hand will be further strengthened against the old guard in UMNO if Zahid is found guilty. Indeed, should he choose to frame it in terms of upholding good governance and protecting Malaysia’s institutions, this would be a solid deliverable for the PM,” Hutchinson told Asia Times.
Stark divisions within the party are nonetheless likely to be reflected in divergent campaign messaging come election time, say analysts. While Ismail and other cabinet members could argue that they have played fair by not interfering with the judiciary, UMNO’s old guard will likely double down on their victimization narrative with vows to fix so-called “irregularities” in the justice system.
“Najib’s ‘cash is king’ approach has entrenched the warlord-like structure among UMNO grassroots and leadership, hence calls to free him would continue to become a dominant theme in some of UMNO’s stronghold areas,” Hafidzi told Asia Times. “But more likely a nationwide narrative would be one centered on Ismail’s commendable efforts towards normalcy and economic recovery.”
Follow Nile Bowie on Twitter at @NileBowie