Anyone who listened to Vladimir Putin’s TV broadcast to his nation on September 21 had to be shocked by the Russian leader’s tone, incoherence and threat.
US President Joe Biden, in a speech to the UN General Assembly, only made matters worse, not better, by putting all of the burden unequivocally on Putin’s head.
There are many impacts from these events, including the bitter possibility of a wider war that will spill over into Europe.
Both Biden and Putin seem to think they can play this kind of poker. Not only will they both lose, but the world will be greatly endangered.
To take the view that the only outcome in Ukraine is win or lose, and that if Russia loses it may use weapons of mass destruction or the Russian government may collapse into chaos, is not in anyone’s interest.
We are at a moment more dangerous than the Cuban Missile Crisis, the closest the Cold War came to escalating into a full-scale nuclear war.
Sad to say, but the US president does not seem to grasp the danger or understand his responsibilities. Biden’s reckless verbiage is not a contribution to peace.
Nor are the various proclamations from Europe’s leaders or from NATO. Putin’s statements are even worse. Instead of incendiary rhetoric, we need practical and workable solutions to the crisis in Ukraine and in Russia.
The last thing the world needs is for Putin to be replaced by some lunatic. Yet chaos in Russia is already starting to rear its head and no one can say what will happen next.
Neither the US, which is a war protagonist (even if justified), nor NATO can offer to broker a deal with Russia, but a deal is needed urgently.
Everyone (except for maybe Russia) agrees that Ukraine is a sovereign country and should not be sold out. Even Russia’s partner China continues to say so.
What everyone should, however, realize is that there are limits to Ukraine’s ambitions that need to be agreed upon.
Ukraine cannot be allowed to deepen the war any further if its actions result in unleashing nuclear weapons or starting a bigger war in Europe.
It is not really a question of who will win, but what will be left no matter what the end result. It also very much is a matter of how much destruction will result and how many will needlessly be sent to their deaths.
Here is an outline of a political and diplomatic solution to the crisis:
1. The basis for a settlement lies in an offer that can (a) protect Russian-speaking Ukrainians and (b) can provide security assurances for both parties, meaning (in part) no NATO in Ukraine and no Russian troops on Ukrainian soil.
2. In the 2015 Minsk II agreement, there was provision for Luhansk and Donetsk to become autonomous parts of Ukraine. The Accord stipulated that the Ukrainian Rada would pass enabling legislation, but that the two oblasts would operate inside Ukraine’s sovereignty and constitution. The 2015 Minsk agreement was never implemented. It needs to be brought back from the dead.
3. At issue is (a) defining autonomy and (b) backing it up with international guarantees protecting the Russian-speaking Ukrainian population. Russia and the legal authorities in the affected regions must also agree to protect the non-Russian population living in those areas.
4. The agreement needs to be broadened to include Crimea with the exception of Sevastopol, which Ukraine should concede to Russia (including whatever communications and support it requires). Previously, Ukraine shared Sevastopol but there is no immediate compelling reason to return to the status quo ante.
5. The US and NATO have to agree not to put NATO weapons in Ukraine or treat Ukraine as a de facto, if not a de-jure, member of NATO.
6. NATO and the US plus Russia need to guarantee Ukraine’s independence and define its borders.
7. Ukraine needs to agree to respect Russian culture, language, religion and educational needs.
8. The Biden administration and NATO should conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin but should arrive at these meetings with a solid portfolio, including the definition of regional autonomy, restructuring legislation and the intention to reach an understanding to bring in UN (not European) peacekeepers.
9. War criminals should answer at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for their alleged crimes.
10. All prisoners should be exchanged. No prisoner should be executed or tortured.
11. Russia needs to withdraw all its troops on the successful implementation of the proposed arrangement, and the two Republics’ forces should be reduced to that of a gendarmerie.
12. Because of Biden’s limitations and the extreme positions taken by NATO, carrying through this diplomatic and political process may best be handled by the UN Secretary-General.
Let’s be frank – the US has to support a deal. The US never supported the Minsk accords, but it should have done so. The Biden administration must now act responsibly in this moment of extreme crisis.
The timeline to get this done is probably two or three months, although the situation is both fraught and fragile. Without some process underway, the roof may fall in faster than repairs can be made.
Follow Stephen Bryen on Twitter at @stevebryen