August 25 is observed by the Rohingya diaspora as “Genocide Remembrance Day.” It is a day of somber reflection on the events since August 25, 2017, when the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) launched a fierce crackdown in their ancestral homeland in Rakhine state. That offensive led to a mass flight of more than half a million Rohingya across the Bangladesh border as refugees.
Since then, things have only become progressively worse for the Rohingya, including those still remaining in Myanmar and the approximately 3 million who reside outside. They are undocumented, bereft of citizenship and denied access to basic services of life including education and livelihood.
Five years later, the question of repatriation looms large, in particular for the Bangladeshi government that is hosting more than a million Rohingya in the world’s largest refugee settlement in Cox’s Bazar.
The strain on resources and security concerns are causing Bangladesh to press international actors on restarting the process of return rather than allowing this limbo to continue. To this end, it has engaged with China to use its clout with the Myanmar regime to get these wheels in motion.
Also read: Why five years on, Rohingya refugee crisis still drags on
The Tatmadaw is subject to further international pressure, with the US eyeing the passage of the Burma Act with a new round of sanctions on the country’s energy sector including the Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE).
The regime may view it in their interest to begin some facsimile of a repatriation process to dull the intensity of foreign criticism. This may be the impetus for recent reports that the return process may be restarted as soon as the end of the year.
The concern is that this repatriation will be similar to the initial rounds that began in 2019, where the numbers of returning Rohingya were few and the exercise was clearly just for optics.
This additional worry was reiterated recently by United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet toward the end of her recent four-day visit to the refugee camps, when she said the current conditions on the ground in Rakhine state were still precarious and repatriation should only occur with reasonable guarantees of safety for those returning Rohingya.
Which leads to an intolerable status quo for the Rohingya, who are unable to go back to their homeland yet are blockaded from integration in their host societies. A ray of hope may be in the form of a blossoming resistance movement within Myanmar civil society against the military rulers that has also shown signs of solidarity with the Rohingya.
Whether a bridge can be created between the Rohingya and other internal groups pushing for democratic restoration in Myanmar remains to be seen.