Mariupol’s fate is the key to a Ukraine deal

Mariupol, the city under siege in southeastern Ukraine on the Sea of Azov, is the key to a possible deal between Russia and Ukraine that will stop the fighting.

The Russian assault on Mariupol has been notably ruthless and brutal. Mariupol has been holding out, but just barely. 

The Russians have begun to shift their forces away from Kiev, focusing more intensely on the southeast, and Mariupol is probably their main objective. To set the stage for a new thrust into Mariupol, the Russians seem to be trying to deprive Ukraine of critical resources, especially fuel and arms, by targeting fuel storage depots and arms warehouses, especially in the Lviv area, which is near Poland.