Let’s cut to the chase: with or without a sanctions juggernaut, China simply won’t be expelled from the global semiconductor market.

The real amount of chip supply that Huawei has in stock for its smartphone business may be an open question. 

But the most important point is that in the next few years – remember, Made in China 2025 remains in effect – the Chinese will be manufacturing the necessary equipment to produce 5-nanometer chips as good as, or even better than, what’s being made in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. 

Conversations with IT experts from Russia, ASEAN and Huawei reveal the basic contours of the road map ahead.    

They explain that what could be described as a limitation of quantum physics is preventing a steady move from 5-nanometer to 3-nanometer chips. This means that the next breakthroughs may come from other semiconductor materials and techniques.