PlanB, the creator of the (so far) uncannily accurate stock-to-flow (S2F) price model, says bitcoin is about to take a run at his $100,000 price target.
In a tweet on Monday, the quant analyst pointed to growing indications that BTC/USD is revving its engine.
Referring to the original version of his model, PlanB said, “This is the 2019 time series model on historical BTC data only (no gold, silver, diamonds, real estate data used),” he wrote alongside a new chart.
“You see the jump in model value at the halving (white line) and corresponding drop in S2F multiple / model error (white dots). Time to go up.”
“The original S2F chart differs from the more recent stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) model, which incorporates macro factors and introduces “phases” in bitcoin’s metamorphosis as an asset. It calls for an average BTC price of $288,000 before 2024,” Cointelegraph noted.
“Since the May halving, bitcoin has put in “red dots” on the model, which have run to expectations, if not in a similar fashion to what happened after the 2016 halving.”
Cointelegraph analyst Michael Van de Poppe said he could see the same pattern emerging from a technical analysis standpoint.
“If you’d like to compare periods and market cycles, the current state of the market is comparable to 2016,” he tweeted (using the name Crypto Michael) on September 14.
“Slow upwards grind, with long sideways consolidation periods. In 2016, several were seen. In 2020, 2021, it’s likely we’ll see that too.”
When asked what fiscal drivers would make bitcoin soar to $100,000, PlanB highlighted a blog post about S2F and confirmed that his hypothesis was still credible.
It would be “silver, gold, countries with negative interest rates [..], countries with predatory governments [..], billionaires and millionaires hedging against quantitative easing (QE), and institutional investors.”
However, PlanB admitted that if bitcoin fails to reach the $100,000 s2F target, the model will be broken. He added that the price will either make a “large move like 2013, or gradually increase like 2016-2017.”