Asian giants China and India will both register economic growth of less than 6% next year after years of high-speed expansion, DBS said in its outlook for 2020 released on Monday. It said China’s economy will slow to 5.8% growth next year amid the ongoing trade dispute with the US while adding that the outlook was grim for its regional rival India.
“India’s growth is expected to slip to 5% YoY in FY20 on broad-based weakness in sectors excluding public administration,” it said while adding that a modest recovery was seen in the following year. The Indian economy expanded 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2019, below 5% in the previous period. GDP growth in India has averaged 6.18% from 1951 until 2019, reaching an all-time high of 11.40% in the first quarter of 2010 and a record low of -5.20% in the fourth quarter of 1979.
China’s GDP in the July-Sept quarter fell to 6%, down from 6.2% in the previous quarter. It was the weakest growth rate since the first quarter of 1992. GDP annual growth rate in China averaged 9.39% from 1989 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 15.40% in the first quarter of 1993 and a record low of 3.80% in the fourth quarter of 1990.
DBS said China, the world’s second-biggest economy would see a further slowing in industrial production and retail sales but infrastructure would remain the major growth engine. China’s industrial production averaged 11.97% from 1990 until 2019, and fell to 4.7% in October 2019, slowing from a 5.8% rise in the previous month.