As the outlook for bitcoin grows increasingly bearish, some analysts are concerned that the leading cryptocurrency may not experience a price surge fueled by the May 2020 block reward halving.
Bitcoin (BTC) barely managed to hold $8,000 support on Tuesday.
Data from CoinMarketCap showed BTC/USD bounce off lows of $8,077 on Tuesday, after its gains were eroded over the weekend.
On Monday, a sudden dip took the pair below $8,100 for the first time since late October. The price has since been fluctuating around that level, Cointelegraph reported.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin had risen back to $8,151, with daily losses still at 3.7% and weekly losses of almost 7%.
“I expect way more volatility. Short term bearish is all I’m saying. And don’t expect price will repeat past halvenings,” statistician Willy Woo tweeted on Monday.
I expect way more volatility. Short term bearish is all I’m saying. And don’t expect price will repeat past halvenings.
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) November 18, 2019
Woo’s tweet refers to Bitcoin’s bullish price action before and after the halvings in 2012 and 2016.
The 2020 halving event has generated much optimism in the crypto community, with many expecting the digital asset to repeat its historical performance. However, this time the bears are in charge.
“Well this time around, we have gone $14k->$7.5k and that’s killing off weak miners who are dumping and dying,” Woo tweeted.
“This adds to the already bearish action, so no happy front running 6-months out due to sell pressure. You can’t draw repeat fractals, the fundamentals are different.”
Well this time around, we have gone $14k->$7.5k and that’s killing off weak miners who are dumping and dying. This adds to the already bearish action, so no happy front running 6-momnths out due to sell pressure. You can’t draw repeat fractals, the fundamentals are different.
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) November 18, 2019
However, not everyone in the crypto space shares Woo’s short-term pessimism.
Prominent crypto YouTuber Nicholas Merten believes Woo’s bearish call is premature.
He said, “I disagree with that. Right now, at the current price range, we’re near a 2-3X for bitcoin from its previous lows. If we take a look at history, that is exactly the same sort of thing that happened in the [last] halving.
“We are multiple months away from the halving event. We have six months to go and we are going to call this bearish? I don’t really get that analysis.”
As Cointelegraph reported, a traditionally accurate Bitcoin price model still calls for an average BTC/USD price of $8,300 until the halving.
The overall cryptocurrency market cap was $222,231,742,422 billion at the time of publication. Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market stood at 66.1%.