오는 10월 건국 70주년을 맞는 중국이 경제 문제로 경제 문제로 시름을 앓고 있다. 미국과의 무역전쟁을 겪으면서 경기가 둔화하고 숨겨진 해외 채무에 대한 우려가 이어지는 가운데, 금융위기 가능성에 대한 우려도 확산하고 있다.
지난 5월 중국 금융당국은 내몽고 자치구 내 소재 바오샹 은행이 회생이 어려운 부실에 빠지자 이 은행을 인수했다. 2개월이 지난 후 랴오닝성 소재 소형은행인 진저우은행이 중국의 5대 은행 중 하나인 중국공상은행으로부터 구제금융을 지원받았다.
지난주에는 산둥성 옌타이시 소재 헝펑은행이 300억 위안의 긴급 자금을 산둥성 지방정부로부터 수혈받았다.
국제통화기금(IMF)은 중국 소형은행들의 무수익여신 문제를 지적하며 자본 확충이 필요하다고 지적해왔다.
잠재적 위험요인
싱가포르 투자은행인 DBS는 6월에 나온 보고서에서 ”앞으로 거시경제 여건이 어려워질 것을 고려해 중국의 총자산 중 76%를 차지하는 중국의 은행들에 대한 스트레스 테스트를 진행했다“며 ”GDP 성장 둔화와 기준금리 인하, 무역 분쟁, 소매금융 거품, 민간기업 리스크 확대 등을 가정한 시나리오 하에서 중국 금융기관의 자본금 부족분이 2조 위안에 달한다“고 밝혔다.
중국 금융당국은 금융부실을 막기 위해 침체를 겪고 있는 부동산 분야 대출을 규제했다. 대출 규제가 시행되면서 지난 2년간 중국의 고위험자산은 13조7400만 위안(1조9800억 달러) 감소했다.
금융당국은 중국의 중소규모 은행의 건전성은 비교적 양호하다고 밝혔으나, 경기가 둔화하는 가운데 중국의 부채 규모가 계속 증가함에 금융부실에 대한 우려가 가시지 않고 있다.
민간 금융기관들은 무역전쟁 여파와 자금조달 애로로 타격을 입었다. 대형 국영 은행은 민간 부문에 대한 대출을 꺼리고 있어 신용 경색이 심화하고 있다.
지방정부 채무
S&P는 중국 지방정부 채무가 얼마나 되는지 공개되지 않았지만, 40조 위안(5조7800억 달러)에 달할 것으로 추정하고 이런 대규모 지방정부 채무가 수면 아래에서 위험요인으로 도사리고 있다고 지적했다.
드러나지 않은 지방정부 채무의 대부분은 대규모 인프라 투자에 필요한 자금을 조달하기 위해 세운 국영 기업을 통해 조달한다.
부채의 규모만 문제가 되는 게 아니다. 1조 달러 규모의 일대일로 사업을 포함한 중국의 해외 신용공여는 투명성 부족이 문제가 되고 있다. 중국의 해외 신용공여는 지난 2000년 약 5000억 달러에서 2018년 약 5조 달러로 급증했다.
키엘세계경제연구소(the Kiel Institute for the World Economy)는 지난주 나온 보고서에서 ”세계 교역에서 중국이 지배적인 위치를 차지하고 있는 것에 비해 국제 금융 분야에서 중국의 역할은 제대로 기록되거나 알려지지 않고 있다“고 지적했다.
연구소는 ”지난 수십년간 중국은 기록적인 규모의 자본을 수출했으나, 이중 상당량이 IMF나 BIS, 세계은행에 보고되지 않았다“며 중국은 OECD의 신용보고시스템에 자본 흐름을 공개하지도 않는다고 지적했다.
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