This image, released on April 23, 2019, by the propaganda arm of Islamic State, allegedly shows eight men who carried out the suicide blasts on Easter Sunday in Sri Lanka. Photo: AFP / Amaq

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) recently announced the launch of Wilayah-e-Hind. “Wilayah” means province in Arabic; in this case, the reference is to Jammu and Kashmir in India. ISIS first announced its presence in Kashmir in 2017 when it claimed responsibility for attacks on Indian forces.

ISIS has also appointed Abu Muhammad al-Bengali as the emir of Bengal. The emir’s jurisdiction will apparently be Bangladesh, but its posters threaten both Bangladesh and India.

The ISIS announcements reflect its growth plans for South Asia. After losing its territorial gains in Syria, it is rejuvenating its plans to establish areas of control elsewhere.

US President Donald Trump said on  February 28 that “we just took over 100%” of the area controlled by ISIS. However, long before the group was decimated in Syria, there was speculation about its next moves. Its plans for a caliphate that extended from parts of Europe to Asian countries may not have borne fruit, but the huge migration of Syrians to various destinations has allowed hardened radicals to merge with refugees and find a foothold way beyond Syria’s borders.

A new modus operandi of the group that was often repeated was the lone wolf attack, primarily in Europe, which complemented a few better-organized operations like the one in Paris in November 2015 that killed 130 people and injured 494.

Among those that chose to leave the caliphate’s dwindling territory were also those who had joined the jihad from other countries. A lot of them have chosen to return home. Others turned their eyes toward hotspots like Afghanistan, which has a well-entrenched ISIS contingent already operational. ISIS has carried out 24 attacks in Afghanistan so far in 2018.

The fact that Pakistan requires a continuous flow of jihadists to maintain its interventions in Afghanistan and India also offered militants choices. Among other options are other South Asian and Southeast Asian countries, especially those from which men and women had left for Syria to do or die for the promised caliphate. It’s pertinent to have a look at the high-risk nations.

Sri Lanka was perhaps ripe for the explosive reverberations that shook the island nation on Easter Sunday. Nearly 260 people were killed and over 500 injured were the grim statistics from the attack. National Tauheed Jamaat has been blamed for the attack. ISIS has also claimed responsibility. A nexus between the two is obvious.

Sri Lanka had just got over the political turmoil arising from the president ousting the elected prime minister, only for the latter to return to power through the parliamentary process. The discord created a dysfunctional environment at operational levels. Though the state had inputs from India, apparently the warnings were not conveyed to the top leadership. The moot question that begs answering is, how precise was the intelligence available prior to the incident? Notwithstanding the Sri Lankan response, other countries in the region have also been either soft on terror, or responded tardily.

The appointment of Abu Muhammad al-Bengali as the emir of Bengal is particularly disturbing. The posters of the organization are in the local Bengali, Hindi and English. The emir’s writ, it can be appreciated, includes Bangladesh and adjoining Indian states that border Bangladesh. Incidentally, before the current prime minister, Shaikh Hasina, came to power over a decade back, the penetration of Bangladesh by terror groups was alarming. Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence had also established itself powerfully. The country was, like Pakistan, at risk of becoming another failed state. The current dispensation has not only been to arrest the slide but also achieve an enviable level of economic growth.

Turmoil in Bangladesh flows across the porous borders to the Indian side. India has over 15 million illegal Bangladeshi immigrants who form a restive community with some of them living in abject poverty. The immigrants have led to disruptive changes in the ethnic and religious composition in many Indian border districts. Local politicians have made things worse by providing identity papers and using them as vote banks. There are plenty of inputs warning of terrorist cells forming in these districts.

A tenuous situation is also to be found in some southern Indian coastal states. The Sri Lankan army chief has stated that a few of the suicide bombers who staged the Easter attack had visited Kashmir, Bangalore and Kerala, possibly for training. The Indian establishment has denied it. However, the Indian National Investigation Agency (NIA)  unearthed ISIS cells in Tamil Nadu after arresting terror suspect Riyas Aboobackar in Kerala. The NIA raided eight offices of the Popular Front of India and three of Tauheed Jamaat in Tamil Nadu. Obviously, these organizations have greatly expanded. Meanwhile, Tauheed Jamaat in India has denied having any links with the Sri Lankan Tauheed Jamaat.

ISIS has also been able to gain some traction in the Kashmir Valley. Notwithstanding their claims of attacking Indian forces in 2017, as yet their activities are limited to occasionally displaying ISIS flags. However, with local recruits being available in greater numbers, there could well be more young men opting for the ISIS brand. The increasing radicalization in Kashmir could also drive the youth to join the more radical and violent groups that ISIS represents.

Malaysia has a peculiar situation. Over 100 Malaysians had gone to Syria during the heyday of ISIS and some of them want to return. The Malaysian government is seemingly quite open to it. They plan to closely scrutinize the individuals and put them through de-radicalization program. However, a couple of months back Malaysian police arrested seven Abu Sayyaf Group suspects. Abu Sayyaf, incidentally, has sworn its loyalty to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the emir of ISIS.

The returnees also open up avenues for new terrorist cells sprouting in Malaysia. Foreign terrorists who have operated in Syria with the Malaysians are desperately trying to move out and could try to gain entry into Malaysia either as a transit point before they move to other countries or create problems in Malaysia itself. The Malaysian police chief Mohamad Fuzi Harun said in a statement, “We view seriously the infiltration of foreign terrorist fighters in the country due to the defeat of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.”

It can be inferred with certainty today that radical Islam’s battle-hardened protagonists are well positioned globally to stage attacks in multiple locales

Another vulnerable country is Indonesia. Over 800 Indonesians reportedly moved to Iraq and Syria after ISIS declared the caliphate in 2014. Fifty percent of these people have returned. They have undergone de-radicalization and have been sentenced in certain cases. Incidentally, it was not illegal in Indonesia until last year to join a terrorist organization abroad. Indonesia has its own insurgency problems. Indonesian police reported the arrest of seven militants and the killing of an eighth one on May 6. These militants were from Jamaah Ansharut Daulah, a group linked to ISIS. Indonesia’s unstable political situation makes it all the more vulnerable.

The other Asian country that is vulnerable is Maldives. About 250 Maldivians are reported to have joined ISIS and 30 have returned.

It can be inferred with certainty today that radical Islam’s battle-hardened protagonists are well positioned globally to stage attacks in multiple locales. A few South and Southeast Asian states are more likely to be attacked because of reasons as diverse as poor law enforcement, sectarian politics, existing fundamentalist movements with similar theological precincts, poor leadership, inadequate intelligence, and poorly trained and equipped anti-terror forces.

There is every reason for these countries to get their acts together and jointly fight a menace that could threaten their social cohesion and economic progress. Sri Lanka is already suffering an economic blow as a result of the impact the Easter attacks have had on tourism. Maldives depends primarily on tourism. Any violence will have a telling effect. Malaysia prides itself on being a very liberal Islamic country. Indonesian GDP growth requires a boost to keep up with projections. India is fighting an endless proxy war. The Afghan talks are not making any headway.

South and Southeast Asia and the strife-torn countries of Africa are the areas where ISIS has the best chance of growth as of now. ASEAN countries have both excellent agreements in place to fight terror. These are regional, bilateral and also multilateral arrangements that go beyond ASEAN. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation also has protocols for countering terrorism. However, even with the best arrangements in place, ISIS is spreading and the activities of terrorist groups are escalating.

Closer co-operation and intelligence-sharing are needed between the countries in the region. Afghanistan remains extremely vulnerable, and expecting the Taliban not to host or allow training of foreign terrorist organizations in the country, one of the conditions that the Americans have imposed, may prove to be a pipe dream and no more. Even today they continue to host al Qaida.

Pakistan has come under pressure with Masood Azhar being declared a terrorist, but  its internal dynamics may not allow it to take a strong stand against dozens of terror groups operating from its territory. It’s important for the Financial Action Task Force to scrutinize Pakistan’s case with a fine-tooth comb and, if required, blacklist the country.

Asian countries have protocols and agreements in place to fight terror. The requirement in these countries is combating terror within their territories. While certain countries continue to allow terrorist groups to operate from their soil, others are soft on terror to varying degrees due to domestic political considerations. Every nation needs to fight terror outfits with all its might. In the globalized community of nations, each nation is part of the chain fighting terror. And like any chain, the weakest link determines the overall strength of the chain.

S K Chatterji

Brigadier S K Chatterji (Retired) served in the Regiment of Artillery of the Indian Army and is a prolific writer.

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  1. An excellent article as usual well researched covering spread of ISIS in Indeis and around

  2. An excellent article as usual well researched covering spread of ISIS in India and around

  3. The need for global cooperation in fighting the scourge of terrorism around the globe is need of the hour . It is a fact borne out by the daily attacks of terrorism across the globe and yet the lack of an efficient apparatus to share information and intelligence , though it is often discussed and many a forums formed .
    In today’s high end era of communication technologies and easy access to Arms and explosives, the terrorists always manages to stay a few steps ahead of the Security Forces. This was clearly highlighted in the Good Friday carnage in Sri Lanka and in Christchurch, New Zealand. The terrorists too are today not just the rural ,rustic ,deprived jehadi variety but are well educated, technology proficient and networked . The Security forces of even Developed nations possibly lack the technology these educated terrorists use for planning and operation and due this reason are often caught napping.
    Unified global approach to terrorism often takes a blow when a terrorist group is created and controlled by Nations who want to further their aims through the acts of violence of these terrorist groups or proxy armies . Case in point are the Al Qaeda dubbed good by US in Syria, transplantation of ISIS in Afghanistan to stymie the growth of Belt Road Initiative in Central Asia and CPEC and to create unrest in Xinjiang province of China. Embedding ISIS with Rakhine’s in the Arakan province of Myanmar is with a view to disrupt Chinese development of the Kyaukphyu port and SEZ on Ramree Island ,which besides the SEZ will also be an Oil offloading point for the Southern China, thereby avoiding transit through the Malacca and Sunda Straits for China . ISI is another major state actor who has proxy armies mainly for use against India, though ISI also exports terror to Iran, China , Afghanistan and earlier have done to Kososvo and Chechnya. This state sponsor of proxy armies defeats the spirit of global cooperation to fight terrorism. And this scenario is unlikely to change with US and its close allies in S Arabia and Israel in deep tussle to counter and restrict the growing influence of Russia and China, around the world.
    Influx of refugees into Europe and other nations due to conflict in Syria and Afghanistan and poverty in Africa has created a precarious security situation in Europe. Though refugees are getting amalgamated in these advanced societies due to employment opportunities available but fault lines exists and often conflict is witnessed between the immigrants and the locals. This has led to the rise of the Far Right political groups which recently had great success in the EU elections. The Far Right political parties advocate racial purity and are inimical to immigrants. This has and in future give rise to terrorism in Europe. Incidents on similar lines are already on the rise in Europe.
    In S Asia today, the disbanded ISIS terrorists of Pakistan are a huge trained force in the hands of the ISI for deployment in Kashmir and in India . ISIS, as has been brought out in this article are a new entity in the Kashmir valley but this can get an impetus if ISI infiltrated ex ISIS cadre and carry out successful strikes in Kashmir and across India. To expect any cooperation to fight terrorism with Pakistan is a Utopian dream for India (and the world).
    Rohingyas from Mynanmar pouring into India from the porous Indo Bangladesh borders are changing the demography in Eastern States of India as has been brought out here. These illegal migrants quickly merge with the local population and move into the hinterland, further queering the internal security issue, in India. Their antecedents are dubious as there are confirmed reports of ISI operatives operating amongst the nine lakh Rohingyas in refugee camps in Bangladesh . these ISI operatives are training and arming Rohingyas not only to create unrest in Myanmar but also to infiltrate into India and create terror.
    India has in the past taken active initiatives to forge a system of sharing intelligence in S Asia. BIMSTEC is one such forum as is SAARC. India and ASEAN too have such agreements as are India’s agreements with Russia, China, Iran, Israel, S Arabia, US, EU and many other nations. But for India the main source of terrorism is Pakistan and thereby our need to grow into an advanced nation at the earliest and make all nations in S Asia to be partner in our growth story , a win win situation for all . Such development will translate into an advanced intelligence sharing mechanism as security will be a great factor in growth of all S Asian nations. This will isolate Pakistan, which is already under extreme financial duress and internal strife. Either Pakistan will amend its ways, give up its illegal claims on Jammu and Kashmir and join the S Asia growth story or it will get sidelined in S Asia as a pariah and an untouchable state. But India cannot lower its guard, even if Pakistan appears to mend its way. Kargil happened after Indian PM’s friendship visit to Lahore, just yesterday in history.

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