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단기 급등 비트코인…조정 받을까, 추가 랠리 펼칠까

비트코인의 추가 상승 기대감이 커지고 있다.
(사진: 아이스톡)
난 한 주 동안 비트코인 등 암호화폐에 상당히 큰일이 일어났다. 가격이 1년여래 고점을 찍은 것. 

비트코인이 이달 초 8,000달러를 깨고 오르자 폭락을 예상한 사람들이 많아졌다. 하지만 두 차례 밀리면서 상승분을 다소 반납하긴 했지만, 비트코인은 두 번 모두 7,000달러를 지켜냈다. 이후 비트코인은 2018년 5월 초 이후 최고치인 8,900달러까지 고점을 높였다.

29일 소폭 밀리면서 8,500달러 아래로 내려왔지만, 30일 오후엔 8,750달러대에서 거래되고 있다. 4월 초와 비교해서 가격이 두 배 상승한 상태다. 올해 들어 지금까지 비트코인은 130% 가까이 오르면서 미국 증시의 상승률을 크게 앞질렀다.

연초 이후 나스닥은 14.5% 오른 후 이달 들어 거의 매일 약세를 보이고 있다. 많은 사람들은 미국 규제당국이 기관의 암호화폐 상품 승인을 질질 끌고 있는 가운데 개인 투자자들이 비트코인의 상승 모멘텀을 주도하고 있다고 생각한다.

그러나 큰 폭의 조정이 미뤄진 것도 사실이다. 과거 시장 주기를 되돌아보면, 현재 가격에서 최대 30% 조정이 가능하다. 그럴 경우 비트코인은 다시 6,000달러 수준으로 떨어질 수 있다. 지난번 상승기 때 비트코인은 8차례 조정을 받으면서 30% 이상 떨어졌다.

하지만 많은 분석가들이 사실은 그와 반대되는 예상을 내놓고 있다. 즉, 그들은 강력한 저항선이 존재하는 9,600달러까지 가격이 오를 것으로 보고 있다. 실제로 최근 암호화폐와 관련된 몇몇 장기적 기술 지표들이 ‘비관적’에서 ‘낙관적’으로 변했다.

비트코인만 상승 모멘텀을 탄 건 아니다. 이더리움도 지난 한 달 동안 75% 오르면서 2018년 9월 초 이후 최고인 270달러를 넘어섰다. 라이트코인의 상승세는 더 강력하다. 라이트코인은  최근 며칠 동안 30달러에서 115달러까지 치솟으며, 연초 대비로 무려 280%나 올랐다.

지난 12개월 동안 금융과 언론계에서 암호화폐의 죽음을 예고하며, 비트코인에 대한 공격이 쏟아져 나왔다. 하지만 일단 지금 당장은 암호화폐의 황소 장세가 다시 자리를 잡은 것 같다.

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