(사진: 아이스톡)

생산과 소비, 투자가 모두 반등하는 등 3월 산업활동이 개선됐으나, 경기 반등을 기대하기는 시기상조다. 2월 지표 부진에 따른 기저효과와 신제품 출시 효과 등이 크게 작용했기 때문이다.

현재의 경기 흐름과 미래의 경기 흐름을 보여주는 동행지수와 선행지수는 동반 하락세가 이어졌다.

통계청은 30일 3월 산업활동동향에서 전산업생산이 전월보다 1.1% 증가, 2월의 2.6% 감소에서 증가세로 돌아섰다고 밝혔다. 하지만 전산업생산은 지난해 3월에 비해서는 0.7% 감소하면서 기저효과가 크게 작용했다는 것을 보여주고 있다.

광공업생산은 반도체 생산이 3.3%, 화학제품 생산이 3.3% 늘어나면서 전월비 1.4% 증가했다. 서비스업생산은 전월비 0.2% 증가했다. 건강보험 보장범위 확대 영향으로 보건사회복지 분야에서 1.5% 증가했고, 은행과 저축기관 등의 대출 증가로 금융보험 등의 분야에서 0.6% 증가했다. 서민 체감 경기와 밀접한 숙박 및 음식점업은 보합세에 그쳤다.

부진이 이어지고 있는 제조업평균가동률은 전월비 1.0%p 상승했으나, 여전히 낮은 71.5%에 그쳤다.

소매판매는 3.3% 증가, 2월의 0.5% 감소에서 증가세로 돌아섰다. 미세먼지 영향으로 공기청정기와 의류 건조기 판매가 늘었고 승용차와 정보통신기기 신제품 출시로 내구재 판매가 7.7% 급증했다. 외국인 관광객 증가로 면세점 매출 등도 호전되면서 소매판매 증가에 기여했다.

소매판매는 전년비로도 2.4% 증가했으나, 신제품 출시 효과 등을 고려할 때 회복의 지속성 여부는 더 지켜볼 필요가 있다.

설비투자도 10.0% 증가하면서 2월의 10.2% 감소에서 증가세로 돌아섰다. 항공기 도입 등 일회성 요인으로 운송장비 투자가 26.2% 증가했고, 기계류 투자도 3.8% 늘어났다. 항공기 수입액은 2월 800만 달러에서 3월 2630만 달러로 급증했다.

건설기성은 건축과 토목 공사가 모두 늘어 전월보다 8.9% 증가했으나, 정부의 재정지출 효과가 크게 작용했다. 3월 중 공공부문의 건설투자는 전월비 25.3% 증가했고 민간부문의 투자는 6.7% 증가했다.

동행지수 순환변동치는 0.1p 하락했고, 선행지수 순환변동치도 0.1p 하락하면서 10개월째 동반 하락세가 이어졌다.

기획재정부의 한 관계자는 Asia Times와의 전화통화에서 “3월 지표 개선은 2월 큰 폭 마이너스에 따른 반등이 컸다”며 “4월에도 개선 흐름이 이어질지 예의주시할 필요가 있다”고 말했다.

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