New data published on Wednesday provided more evidence that optimism in China’s economic stabilization is growing. A median estimate of 32 economists polled by Reuters forecast China’s exports to grow by 7.3%, year over year, in March, after they dropped by more than 20% the month prior.
The estimates, if supported by official data to be released on Friday, point to a continued recovery in China’s economy, but some analysts warn that seasonal factors contributed to the fluctuation.
On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund revised its forecast for Chinese growth from 6.2% to 6.3%, in part reflecting optimism that Beijing will reach an agreement on trade with Washington.
Last year, China posted its slowest annual growth rate in almost three decades, beating the government target of 6.5%, expanding by 6.6%. Beijing set a target of 6-6.5% for this year.
Despite the apparent stabilization of China’s growth, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath warned that “this is a delicate moment for the global economy.”
The IMF expects weakness in the global economy to persist into the first half of 2019 and projected global economic growth to slow to 3.3% from 3.6% in 2018.