中國總理李克強在2019年3月15日於人民大會堂舉行會國人民大會結束後的記者會上聆聽記者的問題。 相片:AFP / Fred Dufour

亞洲新興市場股市第一季度增長了11%,表現優於其他地區,也優於摩根士丹利資本國際公司的核心指數。其主要原因是中國A股漲幅達30%,這是5年來最好的成績。所有其他組成部分均處於中高個位數範圍,馬來西亞是唯一的輸家,下降不到1%。亞洲時報(Asiatimes.com)報導

由於投資者等待4月全國大選的結果,印度和印度尼西亞的平均漲幅為5%;泰國則上漲6.5%,因為黨內的討價還價可能會一直持續到下一屆政府形成,軍方再次通過令人驚訝的選民支持率而佔據主導地位;越南(+13%)引領前沿市場,切實感受美中貿易戰帶來的好處;孟加拉(+ 7%)在伊斯蘭銀行的失敗中幸存下來;斯里蘭卡幾乎沒有進步,國際貨幣基金方案往後延長了一年。

巴基斯坦(+7.5%)可能再次排到前列,因為它在繼中國和海灣地區的信貸之後正在與IMF談判另一項貸款,並可能通過臨時資本管制來囤積外匯儲備。

中國股市上漲中的18%漲幅可歸因於股票和債券指數權重上升、年初貨幣和增長穩定,以及與西方合作夥伴的爭端暫停,但其基礎是搖搖欲墜的。

亞洲開發銀行在年度會議之前將其對亞洲地區今年國內生產總值發展的預測削減至5.8 %。它援引了全球貿易政策的不確定性,因為世界貿易組織預測中國和其他主要國家的交易量僅增加3%,而且「嚴重的減速」是壓倒一切的風險。

中國全國人民代表大會重申中國6-6.5%的增長目標,儘管官方採購經理人指數在3月份突破50的中性大關,出口訂單卻連續第10個月下降。1月和2月,工業產值和零售額分別增長5%和8%,手機和汽車購買量則下降15%。

作為長期驅動因素的固定資產投資增長僅略高於5%,失業率達到2年高峰時的同等水平。

人民幣兌美元匯率在本季度上漲了2%,分析師現在認為此前假設跌至7的可能性不大。中國央行2月份報告的儲備金達到了6個月最高點的3.1萬億美元,並確認了匯率為「更大的市場角色」。

在前2個月外國股市流入中國的200億美元中,170億美元來自香港股市,而摩根士丹利預計,到年底外國股市將有800億美元流入A股。

然而,在中國共產黨的聚會上,李克強總理透露,該國四分之三的省份已經降低了增長目標,因為中國社會科學院智囊團估計將有來自中央和地方政府以及國有企業的廣泛債務,將佔國內生產總值的150%。

獨立的私營部門褐皮書發現本年第一季度的公司借款是自2013年以來最多的,並稱銀行聲稱的去槓桿化「可笑」。前任中央銀行行長周小川警告,來自日本「失去的十年」的超額債務尚未被吸收。包括來自影子資源在內的社會信貸總額仍然以每年10%的速度增長,在岸和離岸債券的違約也開始蔓延,損害股票價值。

印度在4月中旬選舉開始之前7%的攀升率落後於摩根士丹利9.5%的基準指數,由人民黨領導的執政聯盟可能不會贏得多數席位。亞洲開發銀行今年的增長預測保持在7%以上,印度央行將2019至 2020年的預測小幅下調至7.2%。

惠譽維持其最低的投資級主權評級,但敦促莫迪(Narendra Modi)總理進行財政整頓、銀行債務清理和更快的結構改革。

撰文:Gary Kleiman
原文:Asia Q1 stock sprint may trip
更多:https://www.asiatimes.com/lang/chinese/
相片:AFP / Fred Dufour

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