The macaw in the coal mine today was Brazil’s stock market, down 4% with large banks down 6%-7%. The start of negotiations over pension reform is the apparent culprit: The new president Jair Bolsonaro has dazzled investors, but he now has to solve a pension problem that appears politically intractable. Brazilians can retire at 55 with a pension equal to 70% of their pay, and this will cost Brazil 14% of GDP by 2021, and 26% of GDP by 2050.
But investors knew all that before they bid up Brazil’s ETF (EWZ) by 14% this year, the best performer in the emerging market universe. Today’s tumble in Brazil (and more measured pullback in all emerging markets) is a warning that the Federal Reserve-driven euphoria of the first five weeks of the year is exhausted.
US equity markets barely budged during the past three sessions, in contrast to the thousand-point swings in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on so many days in the last weeks of 2018. It’s possible that everyone has taken the week off for the Lunar New Year, but a simpler explanation is that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have promised the markets that they will do nothing for the foreseeable future, and for that reason investors expect nothing to happen.
That by itself is a big statement: There is a word for a market environment in which investors either run for cover or dive headfirst into risk on a nod from the central bank, and that word is, “Bubble.” Many commentators have pointed to the relationship between the Federal Reserve’s purchases of securities and the performance of the S&P 500:
The reversal of quantitative easing in the US and Europe, and the prospect of higher US interest rates produced a panic in December. Fear of trade war with China already caused a sharp drop in capital investment as corporations waited to see where supply chains would end up. When the Federal Reserve (and shortly afterward the European Central Bank) promised not to do anything, markets recovered.
We can see how closely equity markets have followed the whims of central bankers by comparing the option-implied volatility of US Treasury futures and German government bond futures, respectively, with the main US and European equity indices. Fear of Federal Reserve (or ECB) action boosted the likelihood of a big move in government bond yields, and the stock market followed.
Now central banks have no place to go. Italy is in recession and Germany well may be entering one, but the European central bank can’t cut rates that already are negative. As I reported in January, the drop of German government bond yields during 2018 prompted Germans to save more and consume less, weakening the economy. Cutting rates might make things worse, so there is nothing for the European Central Bank to do.
The Fed meanwhile is stuck like a rabbit in the headlights. It won’t raise rates because it doesn’t want a repeat of last December’s panic, and it won’t cut rates until economic data show real weakness. That’s not likely, because the present wave of hiring is led by small businesses, and that has a momentum of its own. I expect US GDP growth of around 2% (rather than the 3% that the US Administration is predicting), which doesn’t motivate a rate cut.
All the great trades of the past few weeks are exhausted. Carry (high-yielding) ETFs have recovered and have no more upside.
China’s Lunar New Year holiday comes at a convenient time. It’s better to be on vacation. I still expect a provisional trade deal of some kind by March 31, which means that Chinese stocks should have some upside.
But problems will linger for some time. The prospect of trade war crushed capital investment around the world, because no-one knows where to locate supply chains. You can’t un-explode a bomb. Things don’t go back to normal so quickly. Chinese investors have modest returns to look forward to.
I continue to believe that this is a coupon-clipper’s market. 2019 may be the Year of the Pig, but that brings to mind an old Wall Street adage: Bulls and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. Stay cautious and stay liquid.
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Gracias al decoletaje, palabra que proviene del francés décolletage” y que se refiere a la operación de corte que permite separar las piezas de una barra, hoy en día fabricamos todo tipo de piezas (no sólo piezas de revolución) a partir de barras metálicas de plástico.
En ningún servicio técnico de los que tenéis en la zona de Valencia y 50 Km alrededor tienen dicha pieza ni creen que la vayan a recibir. Buenos días, hace años que disfrutamos de una M-3 3, la mejor cafetera que hemos tenido nunca, pero los años no pasan en balde, quisiera saber quien lleva el servicio técnico en Palma de Mallorca, para comprar unos recambios. En primer lugar gracias por confiar en Minimoka, esperamos que muy pronto disfrutes del sabor y del aroma del auténtico café. Tanto a nivel técnico como estético probablemente la CM-03 3i, la CM-03 7 y la CM-1 22 son las más parecidas al modelo que comentas.
Asimismo, nuestro hotel alberga cafetería, restaurante, bar, aparcamiento, servicio de lavandería, servicio de habitaciones y 19 salas de conferencias y banquetes para diferentes eventos de hasta 00 participantes. Con esta exposición se consiguen reunir por primera vez en España los 14 lienzos que conforman las Visiones de España de Joaquín Sorolla, que pintó por encargo de la Hispanic Society de Nueva York.
Servicio tecnico joannes, reparamos la marca Joannes y otras en Madrid y Toledo. Servicio técnico Joannes, Madrid, Aranjuez, Paracuelos del Jarama, Alcobendas, Alcala de Henares, llegamos a casi todas las localidades de Madrid. SERVICIO TECNICO DE CALDERAS JMR CLIMACALOR Empresa autorizada de gas y calefacción. Empresa autorizada por la DGI de Madrid y Toledo para la reparacion y el mantenimiento de aparatos a gas calderas calentadores de gas y gasoil, servicio tecnico de calderas, control de gases, revisiones, instalaciones de gas, calefacción y aire acondicionados. Al servicio de nuestros clientes desde hace 18 años seriedad, responsabilidad y precio justo.
En el caso de RNE, se emitirá cada 15 minutos una locución informando de la huelga y si se tratara de programas grabados de mayor duración al inicio y al final de los mismos. No se establecerán servicios mínimos en el centro de territorial de Sant Cugat (Barcelona), en donde se producen programas como ‘Saber y Ganar’ ‘Babel en TVE’, en cuanto a la programación no informativa se refiere, ni tampoco en Radio 3 y en Radio Clásica.
Cuando aprendamos a comprar tomando en cuenta primero el servicio post venta antes que el producto por si solo, las verdaderas buenas marcas se ponen las pilas que desaparezcan, saludos. Ay sony sony, no se en que momento dejaste de ser una compañía prestigiosa para convertirte en una mediocridad con un servicio tecnico que apesta a incompetencia, mala educación y perdida de tiempo. No compreis SONY para gastar más siempre hay otras casas mejores en todos los aspectos que esta. Ademas sus técnicos no está capacitados y los escojen en paises sudamericanos a los que pagan una miseria y les dan funciones que no les corresponden. Equipamiento Interior de Furgonetas para Profesionales, Empresas y Servicios Técnicos.
A diferencia del anterior el aire que aspira también es del exterior, para aprovechar el aire a mayor temperatura. Nuestro servicio técnico de lavadoras, están disponibles de lunes a viernes de 9 a 20h y sábado de 9 a 2h en la reparación de electrodomésticos. Los técnicos están atentos para realizar los servicio técnico de lavadoras, servicio técnico lavavajillas, servicio tecnico de frigorificos, servicio técnico de termos, servicio técnico de cocinas y hornos ,servicio tecnico de aire acondicionado de todas las marcas. De esta forma conseguimos ahorrar al cliente una perdida de tiempo importante, a la vez que se reduce el precio de reparacion. Ofrecemos el mejor servicio oficial a precios muy económicos.respetando la elección de cada propietario.
Ofrecemos nuestros servicios de reparación, instalación Calderas Junkers en toda la Comunidad de Madrid, garantizando el servicio técnico de reparación en Madrid. Nos desplazamos a todos los barrios de Madrid como Arganzuela, Barajas, Carabanchel, Centro, Chamartín, Chamberí, Ciudad Lineal, Fuencarral – El Pardo, Hortaleza, Latina, Moncloa – Aravaca, Moratalaz, Puente de Vallecas, Retiro, Salamanca, San Blas, Tetuán, Usera, Vicálvaro, Villa de Vallecas y Villaverde. Nuestro servicio tecnico de calderas en Madrid se encargara del mantenimiento periodico de su caldera asegurando su funcionamiento y alargando la vida util de su aparato.
Con nuestro Servicio de Urgencias podemos estar presentes en Badalona en un tiempo mínimo, para darle al cliente una solución rápida y eficaz. En AT18 le ofrecemos el servicio de mantenimiento preventivo de sus electrodomésticos, realizando una limpieza profunda y sustituyendo las piezas que presentan desgaste, con lo que prevendremos muchas averías futuras. Para que se anime a buscar nuestra ayuda conozca primero algunos aspectos de nuestro servicio.
Hace unos seis años compre la cafetera modelo m-821 en Carretera del Mig, vuestra antigua fábrica de Hospitalet, y tengo un pequeño problema con ella, y es que cuando acabo de preparar un café, los posos del café no quedan compactos en el cacillo, sino que queda lleno de agua mezclada con los posos. Hola, Juan, deberás llegar la cafetera a uno de nuestros Servicios Técnicos , puesto que, probablemente, se haya averiado el termostato.
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