去年6月,美國總統特朗普(右)和朝鮮領導人金正恩(左)在新加坡舉行的峰會上握手。相片:AFP

美國總統唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)上周引起了很多關注,當時他出人意料地宣布,在本周三和周四越南河內舉行的第二次朝美峰會上,他只有一個目的,就是希望朝鮮主席金正恩不再發射導彈,以及不再有更多的核爆

此舉讓一些觀察者措手不及,因為這表示對「完全無核化」的讓步或放棄。然而,儘管有些人對此感到驚訝和不滿,特朗普的最新舉措卻實際上看起來切實可行。

他宣言的目的是讓金正恩繼續自行暫停彈發射和核試驗,就像2018年那樣,這是切實可行的。沒有導彈橫飛和裂變材料的爆炸確實是首腦會議的和平前奏,而且也是朝鮮半島此刻最需要的。

特朗普看似謙虛的野心也很實際,他現在像西方大多數朝鮮觀察家一樣已經意識到,讓金正恩完全無核化是不可能的。

在特朗普發佈公告之前的幾起事件可能在很大程度上降低了總統對2月27日至28日會議的期望。

一個是去年10月韓國總統文在寅仍然急於在朝鮮開展經濟投資的一份報告。特朗普政府官員早前稱,將允許美國的私人部門參與在朝鮮的投資。

這主要是因為特朗普認為朝鮮有巨大的經濟前景,根據金正日的聲明,特朗普將在朝鮮僅礦業和能源這兩個工業部門投資至少4,800萬美元,而這些投資正是金正恩所需要的。

過去許多朝鮮外資企業的投資失敗案例,例如埃及電信公司Orascom的案例和朝鮮對國際原子能機構(International Atomic Energy Agency , IAEA)檢查承諾的食言,表明對朝鮮的任何投資合作都有重大風險。即便如此,這仍然是談判進程中積極的一步。

雖然朝鮮的行為並不出人意料,但不管怎麼樣外交仍然是唯一手段。

即使第二次朝美峰會沒有產生其他實質性成果,只要導彈和核武器試驗仍然繼續被擱置,談判就有意義。歷史表明,只要對話繼續下去,朝鮮引發一些敵對行動或挑釁的可能性就會大大減少。

金正恩的一個關鍵要求是讓華盛頓減輕一些制裁。這樣的舉動並非沒有風險,因為如果制裁確實被放寬或取消,而之後平壤因違反任何相關協議而違約,那麼就很難恢復原來的制裁方案。

雖然如此,從樂觀的角度來看,如果能夠照著所有人所希望的那樣推進,金正恩無限延長暫停發射導彈和核武器試驗,日本和韓國將降低他們所受到的威脅,美國也不需要太過於擔心朝鮮的核導彈會打擊美軍在亞洲及美洲大陸的基地。

正如朝鮮問題分析專家羅伯特•卡林(Robert Carlin)及時指出的那樣,與金正恩達成共識需要過程。如果華盛頓試圖加速推動事情發展,那麼這個過程很可能會失敗。

現在已經沒時間放棄,因為真正的談判才剛剛開始。如果特朗普的適度目標得到滿足,那麼它們可能會成為該地區所有相關問題的勝利。

撰文:Robert E. McCoy
原文:Trump’s modest expectations are realistic
更多:https://www.asiatimes.com/lang/chinese/
相片:AFP

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