日本海中韓國海軍的大型登陸艦獨島號 相片:Seaman Adam K Thomas, Korean Navy

一位南韓的核物理學家暗自仰慕北韓領導人,而憎恨日本人。他的父親在二戰期間在礦中被日本人折磨至死。他於是逃往北韓,幫助北韓製造了第一個原子彈,這枚原子彈被射向東京。亞洲時報(Asiatimes.com)報導

這是韓國作家Kim Jin-myung所著的驚悚小說《木槿花再次盛開》裏的情節,這是關於一個超國家主義者的故事。這本小說自1993年出版以來已經賣出了300多萬本,成為南韓史上最暢銷的小說之一。

此後該小說被改編成電影,描述了一位朝鮮海峽兩岸的超國家主義者。

任何揣測日本與韓國之間交戰的情形都貌似是不可思議的。然而,明白到這兩個毗鄰的民主國家之間的衝突絕不是全無可能時,那戰爭就並非無法想像了。

現時兩國關係處於低谷,去年12月底,東京聲稱一艘南韓的驅逐艦在日本海對日本海上自衛隊巡航艦照射火控雷達。韓國試圖在國際舞台上將日本海改名為東海。

首爾對此堅決否認,並稱日本飛機涉及威脅性的低空飛行從而干涉搜救工作。雙方在YouTube上發布多語言的視頻宣傳各自的立場。

日本五大國有報紙之一的《產經新聞》在社論中要求首爾道歉,並質問「難道南韓海軍不知道敵人與盟友之間的區別嗎?抑或它決定將日本視為敵人?」

對此,韓國聯合參謀本部作戰本部的發言人徐旭中將措辭十分強烈,「我們的軍隊將會根據我們的回應規定作出強烈反擊。」

兩國關係知否會繼續惡化?我們試想一下幾種情形。

第一種情形,南韓發布了新的國防白皮書,並首次將日本列為安全威脅,相反卻對北韓撤去了長期的指控。東京強烈抗議,然而首爾卻稱日本首相安倍晉三不如北韓領導人金正恩值得信賴。東京因此召回了駐韓大使。

第二種情形,日本右翼民族主義者潛入韓國,並且毀壞了首爾、釜山大使館門口的慰安婦銅像。數萬名韓國人上街遊行譴責日本。同時,日本靖國神社發生一宗離奇火災。

第三種情形,大韓民國國會的右翼分子再次提出對一直存有爭端的對馬島的領土主張,這是位於朝鮮海峽的一個大島。

第四種情形,南韓每年一度的3月1日三一節遊行變成了極端民族主義者的暴亂,他們試圖燒毀在韓的日資企業。兩國交惡,東京斷絕與南韓的外交關係。

當然,有分析員指出,日本和南韓的緊張關係未至於會觸發戰爭,即使兩國關係再惡化,它們作要依靠背後的美國。在必要時,美國會干預令兩國和解。

撰文:Todd Crowell
原文:Thinking the unthinkable: A Japan-Korea clash
更多:https://www.asiatimes.com/lang/chinese/
相片:Seaman Adam K Thomas, Korean Navy

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