In a move that threatens to roil Philippine-American bilateral relations, Manila has called for a review of the long-time allies’ 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT), the bedrock of the two sides’ strategic ties.
Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, a former Philippine defense attaché in Washington, is leading the effort to revisit one of the oldest strategic alliances in Asia.
Any move to scrap the MDT could have wide-reaching implications for regional security, including in the hotly contested South China Sea, where the US and China are in an increasingly tense tussle for control of the waterway.
Manila’s surprise move was announced shortly after the Balangiga Bells, taken by US troops as war booty over a century ago, were returned to the Philippines, a gesture some saw as atonement for atrocities the US committed during its colonial rule of the nation.
Observers had thought that the symbolic return, long sought by Manila, would put relations on a firmer footing after recent slippage on various issues. Significantly, or so it seemed, then US defense chief Jim Mattis personally facilitated the bells’ handover.
President Rodrigo Duterte has taken an often antagonistic approach towards the US in pursuit of what he has termed as a more “independent” foreign policy. At the same time, his government has moved closer economically and strategically to China.
It is not immediately clear what the Philippines aims to achieve from the move, but the treaty review reflects growing frustration in Manila over a perceived fundamental ambivalence built into the bilateral alliance.
In particular, there is nothing in MDT that explicitly guarantees expedient and unconditional American support in the event of a conflict between the Philippines and other claimant states in the South China Sea, including with China.
Lorenzana has publicly criticized America for being “ambivalent” over the issue.
One of the treaty’s articles states, “Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific area on either of the Parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes.”
For the US, this means the need to receive congressional consent for any major military intervention undertaken on the Philippines’ behalf. The bigger question, however, concerns the precise geographical scope of the treaty.
Under the previous Barack Obama administration, the US clarified that its treaty alliance with Japan covers the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea, which are also contested by China and Taiwan.
A 1951 Security Treaty between the US and Japan declares that “United States land, air and sea forces in and about Japan… may be utilized to contribute to the maintenance of international peace and security in the Far East and to the security of Japan against armed attack from without.”
The same assurances are neither reflected in the Philippine-US treaty nor in Washington’s diplomatic statements, which have been made in generic terms of its “ironclad commitment” to the Philippines’ defense rather than the specific commitments made to Japan.
Obama cautioned in 2014 while in Manila against the supposed folly of going to war over a “bunch of rocks” when asked whether the US would come to the Philippines’ defense in an event of conflict with China in the South China Sea.
Two years earlier, Washington declined to intervene militarily when the Philippines and China were locked in a months-long naval standoff over the disputed Scarborough Shoal, which China now controls in violation of international law.
The shoal is situated within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and could be pivotal to any Chinese move to establish an Area Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) to take de facto control of the South China Sea.
Nor has the US moved to enforce a July 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague decision in favor of the Philippines and against China’s expansive claims to the sea, a ruling that legally discredited China’s controversial nine-dash line map that lays claim to 90% of the waterway.
Some have also questioned the compatibility of the MDT with present geopolitical realities since the treaty was forged at the beginning of the Cold War.
“When that [treaty] was [negotiated], there was this raging Cold War. [But] [d]o we still have a Cold War today? Is it still relevant to our security? Maybe not,” Lorenzana said in a press conference in late December. Lorenzana has even raised the prospect of scrapping the treaty altogether if deemed necessary.
“Let’s see… We are going to approach this MDT, look at it in the backdrop of what’s happening in the area, in the interest of the nation, not the interest of other nations,” he added. The MDT may be terminated by either side with a year’s notice.
China-leaning elements in Manila, empowered by Duterte’s anti-Western rhetoric, will likely argue for a downgrade in bilateral relations with the US to facilitate stronger ties with Beijing, which has remained wary of the Philippine-US defense alliance.
But the review could also serve as a springboard to push America to be more forthcoming in its treaty obligations to the Philippines by upgrading the alliance to accommodate modern geopolitical risks and realities, namely the rise of China and the relative decline of America’s influence in Asia.
Under the Donald Trump administration, Washington has sought to adopt a more reassuring tone on America’s commitments to the region.
During an August visit to Manila, Randall Schriver, America’s assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific security affairs, said that “there should be no misunderstanding or lack of clarity on the spirit and the nature of our commitment,” because “we’ll help the Philippines respond accordingly” to any contingencies in adjacent waters.
In December, the US Ambassador to the Philippines Sung Kim was even more reassuring, telling CNN Philippines, “I fully expect that we will come to the defense of the Philippines if any foreign nation were to attack the Philippines.”
Yet none of those statements have addressed the specifics of a potential US intervention in the event of a full-blown conflict in the South China Sea, a scenario security analysts see as increasingly possible amid recent saber-rattling between the US and China over access to the waterway.
A poll conducted in December by the Social Weather Stations, a local pollster, showed that a majority (61%) of Filipinos are confident that Washington would come to Manila’s aid in the event of a conflict with a third country.
That would seem to indicate that the Philippine public favors maintaining or even upgrading its existing alliance with America, though it’s not clear that’s what Duterte’s government has in mind for its treaty review.
Structures located inside any EEZ does not mean it is the eez country’s territory.
EEZ is just an access to tapping the zone for economic benefits, nothing more, it is not sovereignty.
Pulau Batu is inside Malaysis’s eez but the UN court grant sovereignty to Singapore.
Structures located inside any EEZ does not mean it is the eez country’s territory.
EEZ is just an access to tapping the zone for economic benefits, nothing more, it is not sovereignty.
Pulau Batu is inside Malaysis’s eez but the UN court grant sovereignty to Singapore.
Bravo Senor Presidente Duterte for giving filipinos the independence and dignity they long deserved. Long live the Phillipines!
Bravo Senor Presidente Duterte for giving filipinos the independence and dignity they long deserved. Long live the Phillipines!
The world is changing. It now has to accommodate raising powers, especially China. The US realised that it could not afford a direct confrontation with China, nor does it wants to. Knowing that the South China Sea is a hot plate, Philippine could very likely drag it into an unending war with China. With a very weak military in the Philippine, the US will have to do the heavy lifting. This is not popular with the American public whose support the Administration would need to wage a war with China.
The world is changing. It now has to accommodate raising powers, especially China. The US realised that it could not afford a direct confrontation with China, nor does it wants to. Knowing that the South China Sea is a hot plate, Philippine could very likely drag it into an unending war with China. With a very weak military in the Philippine, the US will have to do the heavy lifting. This is not popular with the American public whose support the Administration would need to wage a war with China.
And you are only speaking your own point of view and own personal idea. But when it comes to the full blown reality on its application on the real world, that is already far beyond the existing norms and obligation towards parties signed on that treaty mr stanly ti. You dont know the real obligation between signed parties.
And you are only speaking your own point of view and own personal idea. But when it comes to the full blown reality on its application on the real world, that is already far beyond the existing norms and obligation towards parties signed on that treaty mr stanly ti. You dont know the real obligation between signed parties.
USA is the indespensable country on earth. It is next to none, the world known that and no country on earth will take that pride to america.Only sayings and opposites ideas will contest on that reality, but when it comes the ultimate thruth,America will be remain the most powerful country militarily or in the field of economy.
USA is the indespensable country on earth. It is next to none, the world known that and no country on earth will take that pride to america.Only sayings and opposites ideas will contest on that reality, but when it comes the ultimate thruth,America will be remain the most powerful country militarily or in the field of economy.
There is no justification for these "mutual" defense agreements in the Western Pacific. It costs US taxpayers a fortune. The US should just pack up, come home and begin to build high speed rail.
There is no justification for these "mutual" defense agreements in the Western Pacific. It costs US taxpayers a fortune. The US should just pack up, come home and begin to build high speed rail.
Kier Valdez He is your master.
Kier Valdez He is your master.
The Philippines should break the alliance with the US. And after the Philippines, South JKorea and Japan should do the same. The US must be pushed out of the western Pacific.
The Philippines should break the alliance with the US. And after the Philippines, South JKorea and Japan should do the same. The US must be pushed out of the western Pacific.
President Duterte never say no to a fight or a major controversy. US must wake up to the reality, The Philippines is a sovereign nation! Loser military ties with the US might take away some tension in the South China Sea issue. In my humble opinion the Philippines should continue to have excellent relations with the US and all its neighbors. Let us see what Washington says. President Trump might want to save US tax money, but Mike Pompeo and John Bolton want to initiate a cold war arms race with China.
President Duterte must be aware the US “Deep State”, US State Department, and the CIA has had covert operations against President Duterte. President Duterte popularity has made a regime change in the Philippines less feasible, but President Duterte seems to have lost some of his support. Anyway, Duterte’s idea is a carrot China will appreciate and might result in more cooperation and investments.
The Filipino people seems to be firmly behind having US as a friend and needs more time see the benefits of having closer relations with China.
President Duterte never say no to a fight or a major controversy. US must wake up to the reality, The Philippines is a sovereign nation! Loser military ties with the US might take away some tension in the South China Sea issue. In my humble opinion the Philippines should continue to have excellent relations with the US and all its neighbors. Let us see what Washington says. President Trump might want to save US tax money, but Mike Pompeo and John Bolton want to initiate a cold war arms race with China.
President Duterte must be aware the US “Deep State”, US State Department, and the CIA has had covert operations against President Duterte. President Duterte popularity has made a regime change in the Philippines less feasible, but President Duterte seems to have lost some of his support. Anyway, Duterte’s idea is a carrot China will appreciate and might result in more cooperation and investments.
The Filipino people seems to be firmly behind having US as a friend and needs more time see the benefits of having closer relations with China.
David Mak you sound more like a Chinese puppet and bot to me. China’s economy is based on its cheap labor manufacturing base. The US is turning to automation and robotoics to manufacture goods. China of course is tryinng to steal this proprietary knowledge as China is not capable of developoning this knowledge itself.
David Mak you sound more like a Chinese puppet and bot to me. China’s economy is based on its cheap labor manufacturing base. The US is turning to automation and robotoics to manufacture goods. China of course is tryinng to steal this proprietary knowledge as China is not capable of developoning this knowledge itself.
It was the Philippines who broke the last defense treaty it had with the United States. When the Philippines asked the United States to remove its military from the Philippines the US did so. Had the Philippines not broke the last defense treaty with the US, the Chinese would not have seized territory that clearly belongs to the Philippines, despite what Stanley Ti says. China is clearly violating the sovereignty of the Philippines, and Rodrigo Duterte now expects the US to save the Philippines for free. When the Philippines decides to get serious about a lasting defense treaty then we can talk. If the Philippines decides to end the 1951 defense agreement with the US, the US will abide by the wishes of the Filipino people. If the Phiippines assists Chiina in closing the South China Sea to free commercial traffic, and the Philippines allows the stationing of Chinese military forces on its soil, then they will be fair game, and have to suffer rhe consequences.
It was the Philippines who broke the last defense treaty it had with the United States. When the Philippines asked the United States to remove its military from the Philippines the US did so. Had the Philippines not broke the last defense treaty with the US, the Chinese would not have seized territory that clearly belongs to the Philippines, despite what Stanley Ti says. China is clearly violating the sovereignty of the Philippines, and Rodrigo Duterte now expects the US to save the Philippines for free. When the Philippines decides to get serious about a lasting defense treaty then we can talk. If the Philippines decides to end the 1951 defense agreement with the US, the US will abide by the wishes of the Filipino people. If the Phiippines assists Chiina in closing the South China Sea to free commercial traffic, and the Philippines allows the stationing of Chinese military forces on its soil, then they will be fair game, and have to suffer rhe consequences.
The Chinese investment in the Philippines have benefited the Chinese, not the Filipino people. Instead of investing in job creating industries, the Chinese buy properites and construct casinos. The Chinese import Chinese workers to manage and operate these casinos. The Filipinos are given low wage menial jobs, such as maids, waiters and dishwashers. Some Filipino women do land high paying jobs as high priced call girls. The middle class of the Filipino people are slowly being destroyed, and being forced out into the country side where there is no electrical or sanatiation facilities and with no access to any type of electrification. The Filipino people are slowly becoming slaves again, as they were slaves under the Spanish Imperialism from the 1500’s to 1898.
The Chinese investment in the Philippines have benefited the Chinese, not the Filipino people. Instead of investing in job creating industries, the Chinese buy properites and construct casinos. The Chinese import Chinese workers to manage and operate these casinos. The Filipinos are given low wage menial jobs, such as maids, waiters and dishwashers. Some Filipino women do land high paying jobs as high priced call girls. The middle class of the Filipino people are slowly being destroyed, and being forced out into the country side where there is no electrical or sanatiation facilities and with no access to any type of electrification. The Filipino people are slowly becoming slaves again, as they were slaves under the Spanish Imperialism from the 1500’s to 1898.
Richard Caroll Hi! I agree. After the US agreed to the Philippines independence after WW2, the Philippines has been run by around 200 Filipino rich families who has exploited the poor and the Middle Class.
I hope China will do more infrastructure spending and create jobs for large parts of the population. President Duterte has done many right decisions fighting crime, corruption, and drugs. Philippines has more attractive for foreign investments and has a huge work force that want to work.
You mentioned prostitution, the main problem with prostitution in the Philippines the girls get addicted to drugs (Shabu) and get their life TOTALY destroyed. I am optimistic for the Philippines and hope it does not get messed up by the US or US puppet politicians. No doubt Filipinios like Americans, but not US puppets. Filipinos is sceptical to Chinese and Chinese intentions.
Richard Caroll Hi! I agree. After the US agreed to the Philippines independence after WW2, the Philippines has been run by around 200 Filipino rich families who has exploited the poor and the Middle Class.
I hope China will do more infrastructure spending and create jobs for large parts of the population. President Duterte has done many right decisions fighting crime, corruption, and drugs. Philippines has more attractive for foreign investments and has a huge work force that want to work.
You mentioned prostitution, the main problem with prostitution in the Philippines the girls get addicted to drugs (Shabu) and get their life TOTALY destroyed. I am optimistic for the Philippines and hope it does not get messed up by the US or US puppet politicians. No doubt Filipinios like Americans, but not US puppets. Filipinos is sceptical to Chinese and Chinese intentions.