The Chinese economy is expected to grow at a rate of 6.3% in 2019, according to a survey of 21 economists conducted by Yicai.com.
Economists are also expecting an 8.57% growth rate for retail sales. This is lower than 2018’s estimated 9.02%.
Retail sales growth fell more than was expected in 2018, as consumers had a lower appetite for goods, said Huang Jianhui, an economist at China Mingsheng Bank. Auto sales have seen negative growth for the first time in 10 years. The consumption of construction materials, home appliances and furniture all declined due to weakening home sales.
As for inflation, economists expect the consumer price index (CPI) to grow at a rate of 2.19% in 2019, while the producer price index (PPI) will fall significantly to 1.49%.
Jiang Chao, chief economist at Haitong Securities, believes the risk of deflation will be greater than the risk of inflation in 2019.