On the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Argentina, the United States and China announced a ceasefire in their escalating trade war, a move that temporarily mollified markets.
But that truce has not extended into the South China Sea and adjacent waters, where the two powers are pitted in tit-for-tat antagonism that many fear could soon tilt towards conflict.
The South China Sea didn’t come up during the two leaders’ discussions, according to people familiar with the dialogue. This is likely due to the seemingly irreconcilable gulf between the two sides, both of which have stepped up their military maneuvers in the contested waters in recent months.
In fact, just before the Trump-Xi meeting in Argentina, the US conducted on November 28 its third Freedom of Navigation (FONOP) patrol in the Taiwan Straits since July this year.
The US Pacific Fleet spokesman, Lieutenant Commander Tim Gorman, described the maneuver as a demonstration of “the U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” and vowed that the “US Navy will continue to fly, sail and operate anywhere international law allows.”
In response, China’s foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang urged Washington to “cautiously and appropriately handle the Taiwan issue, avoid damaging the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait and China-US relations,” while warning against further deterioration in bilateral ties.
At the same time, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy also stepped up its patrols in the area. A senior Chinese military official, Dai Xu, a PLA Air Force Colonel Commandant, reportedly even called for attack on US warships in Chinese-claimed areas:
“If the US warships break into Chinese waters again, I suggest that two warships should be sent: one to stop it, and another one to ram it… In our territorial waters, we won’t allow US warships to create disturbance.”
Beyond the bellicose rhetoric, there are increasing structural tensions. As Song Zhongping, a China military expert, told the South China Morning Post on December 4, “China stresses its maritime interests in the waters, while the US attaches importance to freedom of navigation. These are different starting points and cannot be easily reconciled.”
In late November, the US conducted several military maneuvers in a major show of force, including two-carrier naval drills in the South China Sea involving USS Ronald Reagan and USS John C Stennis strike groups and their accompanying escort warships.
Days later, the Pentagon deployed two B-52 bombers near contested islands in the South China Sea, challenging China’s claim to the waters and skies around its artificially-built islands and features.
The bombers “participated in a routine training mission” in “the vicinity of the South China Sea,” according to a US Pacific Air Forces statement. “This recent mission is consistent with international law and United States’ long-standing commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” the statement continued.
The Pentagon describes such deployment as part of its “Continuous Bomber Presence” missions in the contested waters of Asia, pushing back against any revisionist challenges to the Indo-Pacific status quo.
During the Halifax International Security Forum on November 17, US Navy Admiral Phil Davidson, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, rang alarms about China deploying a “Great Wall of SAMs [surface to air missiles]” in the South China Sea.
He warned that China’s deployment of missile systems to contested islands gives it “the potential to exert national control over international waters and airspace through which over three trillion dollars in goods travel every year.”
China’s overt militarization of the disputes, Davidson argued, “violat[es] the sovereignty of every other nation’s ability to fly, sail, and operate in accordance with international law,” and undermines the, “the right of all nations to trade, to communicate, to send their financial information, to send their communications through cables under the sea.”
For the first time, Washington has been openly pressing Beijing to halt further militarization of contested islands, dismissing Beijing’s explanation that the build-up is purely for self-defense purposes.
Buoyed by its rapidly developing naval capabilities, China seems determined to push the envelope.
Two recent studies have underscored China’s remarkable ability to close its military capability gap with the US. A recent Rand Corporation study warned Washington about China’s “extraordinarily quickly [catch up] by any reasonable historical standard.”
Another bipartisan study commissioned by the US Congress went so far as to warn that China could even emerge victorious in a potential military conflict in the South China Sea.
It’s no wonder then an increasingly confident China has more directly challenged America’s access operations in the area.
In September, the US destroyer USS Decatur, which was conducting a FONOP within 12 nautical miles of China-occupied Gaven and Johnson reefs, was forced to change course when a Chinese warship came within a provocative 40 meters of it.
In early December, Taipei warned about “irregular patrols” by the PLA, which has deployed in a “routine” fashion a growing number of warships to the Taiwan Straits, right up to the middle of the 112-mile strait separating China’s mainland from Taiwan.
In the past, the PLA forces would mostly remain closer to Chinese shores.
Perturbed by China’s expanding military presence in the Straits, Taiwan’s defense ministry tried to reassure that it “effectively monitored the situations and movements around the Taiwan Strait by means of its air and naval mechanisms to ensure national security and regional stability.”
As one Taiwan military source told regional media, however, the situation is increasingly dire. “Each time the US sent warships through the Taiwan Strait, the PLA has also dispatched its fleets to track the US’ movements.”
That’s accentuating concerns that an emboldened PLA Navy and a self-perceived still-dominant US Pentagon are sleepwalking into a conflict at sea.
America is not the world’s sheriff anymore. Countries like China can well look after their own interests, and it’s in their interest to keep trade flowing in the South China Sea. The US wants war to keep their economy going and preserve empire
America is not the world’s sheriff anymore. Countries like China can well look after their own interests, and it’s in their interest to keep trade flowing in the South China Sea. The US wants war to keep their economy going and preserve empire
Except that China has claimed international waters – and now the US-led international community is starting to push back.
If US is playing sheriff as you say, then China is playing highway bandit.
Except that China has claimed international waters – and now the US-led international community is starting to push back.
If US is playing sheriff as you say, then China is playing highway bandit.
An US Asia Pacific command admiral was put into pasture for sleepwalking through his job with many collisions..
An US Asia Pacific command admiral was put into pasture for sleepwalking through his job with many collisions..
William Hunter: what do you say to China’s claim that SCS once belonged to China since Admiral Zeng He planted China’s flag in these waters in 15th century?
William Hunter: what do you say to China’s claim that SCS once belonged to China since Admiral Zeng He planted China’s flag in these waters in 15th century?
By "Countries …can well look after their own interests", I think you meant: Each country has its own territorial waters and it’s own exclusive economic zone.
By "Countries …can well look after their own interests", I think you meant: Each country has its own territorial waters and it’s own exclusive economic zone.
WHAT IF China wanted to close off those important shipping lanes ?
Who says they should have that kind of power?
WHAT IF China wanted to close off those important shipping lanes ?
Who says they should have that kind of power?
Javier A. Medina Comrade, the closure of these important shipping lane would choke china
Javier A. Medina Comrade, the closure of these important shipping lane would choke china
The question on the mind of US strategic war planning is "who is with us in the event of a showdown with China". They see that they are alone in this. Japan, its closest ally, is not keen. Vietnam, wouldn’t get involved. China is just across the border. They know the consequences of siding with the US. The Philippine. You have to change the President first. On top of these, the Americans in general don’t support a conflict with China in a far away place.
The question on the mind of US strategic war planning is "who is with us in the event of a showdown with China". They see that they are alone in this. Japan, its closest ally, is not keen. Vietnam, wouldn’t get involved. China is just across the border. They know the consequences of siding with the US. The Philippine. You have to change the President first. On top of these, the Americans in general don’t support a conflict with China in a far away place.
Javier A. Medina stupid hypothetical conjecture
Javier A. Medina stupid hypothetical conjecture
Good to know about being prepared, instead of getting caught off-guarded like in 1962. India should take all necessary measures to ensure free & secure shipping lines. Abolsutely no tolerace for bullying.
Good to know about being prepared, instead of getting caught off-guarded like in 1962. India should take all necessary measures to ensure free & secure shipping lines. Abolsutely no tolerace for bullying.
THE ONLY THING JAP’s DON’T TEACH INDIANS IS HOW TO RAPE INNOCENT CHILDREN.
THE ONLY THING JAP’s DON’T TEACH INDIANS IS HOW TO RAPE INNOCENT CHILDREN.
china should be stop ,,Bullying other weak nations..ONE WORLD rule not by china in the near future to saVe human civilization…….destroy china now ..saved the people
china should be stop ,,Bullying other weak nations..ONE WORLD rule not by china in the near future to saVe human civilization…….destroy china now ..saved the people
William Hunter
You’re absolutely right with your opinion. SCS does not belong to China. As to claims that Zheng He planted the flag on these waters, how can he do that on waters ? Foolish argument. The UNCLOS Hague ruling should be the basis of maritime entitlements.
William Hunter
You’re absolutely right with your opinion. SCS does not belong to China. As to claims that Zheng He planted the flag on these waters, how can he do that on waters ? Foolish argument. The UNCLOS Hague ruling should be the basis of maritime entitlements.
Ruben Gayahan
Don’t worry it’s just a matter of time that China will eventually collapse and follow the fate of USSR, which fragmnentized. Or, be Balkanized like Yugoslavia.
The trade war is having its telling effects on China . Read the link below to be enlightened.
http://www.crusoeresearch.com/article/jim-rickards-debt-bomb-ready-to-explode/
https://beta.scmp.com/news/article/2108442/my-prediction-coming-collapse-chinas-ponzi-scheme-economy
Ruben Gayahan
Don’t worry it’s just a matter of time that China will eventually collapse and follow the fate of USSR, which fragmnentized. Or, be Balkanized like Yugoslavia.
The trade war is having its telling effects on China . Read the link below to be enlightened.
http://www.crusoeresearch.com/article/jim-rickards-debt-bomb-ready-to-explode/
https://beta.scmp.com/news/article/2108442/my-prediction-coming-collapse-chinas-ponzi-scheme-economy
Penny Shore and my other noodle friends – We have criminals and law is dealing with them. But then, how can you understand this, if you cannot even understood that your own govt. controlled population by giving Iodine to millions of 2nd new borns! Search in google!
Penny Shore and my other noodle friends – We have criminals and law is dealing with them. But then, how can you understand this, if you cannot even understood that your own govt. controlled population by giving Iodine to millions of 2nd new borns! Search in google!
My friend if you believe or respect UN, or the people republic of chit este china, then obey the it, that all
My friend if you believe or respect UN, or the people republic of chit este china, then obey the it, that all
The actuations of CommChi is geared towards WWIII. It’s for everybody to prepare for the inevitable. You can’t have the world all for yourself alone.
The actuations of CommChi is geared towards WWIII. It’s for everybody to prepare for the inevitable. You can’t have the world all for yourself alone.
US and China are like two boiling pots on a collision course. Should they collide one can imagine two boiling pots smashed into pieces spewing their fatal
fury of destruction sure to end humanity in an instant.
US and China are like two boiling pots on a collision course. Should they collide one can imagine two boiling pots smashed into pieces spewing their fatal
fury of destruction sure to end humanity in an instant.