Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is a well-known provocateur. He plays his weak hand by carrying out outrageous stunts that are both dangerous and costly. They are dangerous because a fast-flying jet fighter buzzing a US ship or a NATO base could very well trigger a lethal reaction or lead to a fatal accident. One is reminded of the fate of Wang Wei, the Chinese fighter pilot who in 2001 flew his J-8 aircraft too close and collided with a US EP-3E ARIES II aircraft. Wang Wei’s plane was destroyed and he died in the now-famous Hainan Island incident.
In the case of Russia, provocations are costly and rarely do much more than heighten tensions, sometimes undermining productive engagements between the powers.
So why do the Russians continually do it? Are the Russians trying to compensate for military weakness by taking risks and carrying out reckless stunts?
It isn’t so easy to get into Putin’s head, or for that matter to know the true thinking of the Russian General Staff. The fact that they keep up the antics tells us that they apparently see that these displays of power help to keep Russia up as a serious player, demanding respect from the West.
But chance-taking can get out of hand, as happened in the Sea of Azov at the Kerch Strait. Here the Russians took a bigger step, ramming a Ukrainian tugboat and shooting up three Ukrainian vessels, wounding either three (claimed by Russia) or six (claimed by Ukraine) Ukrainian sailors and capturing three Ukrainian boats. The sailors were also interred in Crimea, which the Russians have already annexed at Ukraine’s expense.
Intimidation exercise
Of course, Ukraine is a weak adversary as far as the Russians are concerned, and the Russians have renewed pressure on Ukraine’s current leadership, not only by restricting access to the Sea of Azov (which was relaxed days after the Kerch Strait incident), but also according to the Ukrainians, by Russia massing tanks and soldiers close to Ukraine’s eastern border. Whether this is just more of the same – an intimidation exercise – or a prelude to an actual military invasion of Ukraine is far from clear.
There were, of course, other consequences from the Kerch confrontation, including additional sanctions from the West and US President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel an important face to face meeting with Putin at the G-20 summit. Of course, the meeting cancellation put off negotiations on important matters, especially the fate of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces agreement (INF agreement) which Trump has declared he will cancel because of Russian violations. The Russians have been trying to head off Trump’s decision and have offered negotiations, but Russia once again shot itself in the foot by their poor behavior at Kerch.
But if that wasn’t enough, the Russians went even further when they sent Backfire bombers to Venezuela after the G-20 summit.
Supposedly this was to show solidarity with the failed Venezuelan “thugocracy” that has all but destroyed a once affluent and productive nation. But Russia could have shown solidarity in many other ways instead of sending nuclear bombers.
This latest stunt was not really about Venezuela. It was designed to highlight Russia’s umbrage at the threatened US cancellation of the INF Treaty. That is why Russia sent two strategic Backfire bombers (Tu-22M) to Venezuela and not some other equipment. And it is probably why the Russians flew the Backfires around in Caribbean airspace for some 10 hours in a meaningless exercise during which, at least part of the time, Venezuela joined the two Backfire bombers with their F-16’s and Su-30 fighter jets.
The Backfire bomber was long a bone of contention between Russia and the United States in the START (1991, 1994) and START II treaties. START (Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty) and START II is the follow-up treaty. The Russians cancelled participation in START II when the US pulled out of the ABM (Anti Ballistic Missile) Treaty. In the START II negotiations it was agreed that the Backfire bomber would be produced in limited numbers and would not have intercontinental range, meaning the Backfires would not be air to air refuelable.
The Backfires that flew to Venezuela covered 10,000 km (6,200 miles) meaning they had to be refueled since the Backfire range is roughly 6,800 km. Today there are less than 70 Backfire bombers in service. They have been used as conventional bombers in the Chechen war, in Afghanistan and in Syria (where they were also used to launch long range cruise missiles). The Backfire carries ordnance internally and externally with a maximum overall capacity of 24,000 kg (53,000 lbs). In the 2008 Russo-Georgian (South Ossetia) war, a reconnaissance version of the Backfire was shot down by Georgian Air Defenses.
The flight to Venezuela was not the first time Russia has sent Backfire bombers to Venezuela. They did so in 2008 and in 2013. In 2013 the Backfires flew with Tu-95 “Bear” long-range bombers and were refueled by IL-78 tankers. In 2013 the Backfires got into trouble by not filing proper flight plans and were challenged by Columbian Air Force Israeli-built Kfir fighters about 80 miles from Barranquilla, where they were probably either en route to or coming from Nicaragua and heading back to Venezuela. Russia saw the Backfire bombers as a way of showing power in Central and South America and was engaged with Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua in an effort to arrange base rights for the Backfires. The fact that the Russians did not succeed earlier in their attempt to negotiate base rights, suggests that the US made it clear to these countries that giving base rights to Russia would be a hostile act against the United States.
Military force
Now Russia’s Tass is reporting that Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro has acceded to a Russian request to set up an air base on one of Venezuela’s offshore island. How Russia or Venezuela could support an offshore airbase depends on which island and to what degree Venezuela will supply fuel and manpower to man the infrastructure required. But whether the latest report is true remains to be determined. A base like this could give the Trump administration all the encouragement it would need to intercede with military force, either at the base or, more likely, against the Maduro regime. It suggests that Maduro is desperate to risk American ire and the chance for a Washington determination that enough is enough.
Meanwhile, the US has kept a military relationship with Venezuela, even though Russia has become a major arms supplier there supplying aircraft, artillery, military ground equipment including armored vehicles and tanks, helicopters and 12 S-300 air defense systems. Recently the Russians delivered 5,000 SA-24 Manpads (Man-Portable Air Defense Missiles). Venezuela is the largest operator of Russian armament and military hardware in the Latin American region.
The US has been supporting Venezuela’s F-16’s for two reasons. The first is that the US signed a long-term agreement with Venezuela to supply spare parts for the F-16’s and in 2005 the US Ambassador confirmed that the United States would continue that support. Since then, of course, conditions in Venezuela – suppression of all opposition forces, arrests of opponents of the regime and rising anti-Americanism – provides more than sufficient grounds to stop weapon’s support. Secondly, there are those in the US government who continue to believe that the Venezuelan military could be a positive force for change and democracy.
There is some claimed evidence that the recent drone attack on Maduro was a military-run operation. Among those alleged by the regime to have been involved in the plot were two senior military officers who were arrested in August: Col. Pedro Zambrano Hernandez and Gen. Alejandro Perez Gamez of the National Guard. Whether their arrest reflects unrest in the Venezuelan military is an open question – it is also quite likely that as part of Maduro’s crackdown on opponents he is purging opposition in the military as well as civilian opponents. The drone attack could simply serve as a convenient excuse to justify arrests of opponents.
It isn’t clear if the United States was advised about the latest Backfire’s foray flying in circles in the Caribbean or if the flight path of the Backfires was shared ahead of time. Nor do we know if the Russians filed advisories to the local countries that were near the military exercise. But there is no doubt that the Russians were hearing a lot from the United States, including threats that the Backfires had to be removed. In fact, they are now gone, so the US demands were met, although Russia offered neither apologies nor excuses.
As anyone can see, the possibility of moving nuclear-capable aircraft or missiles into the backyard of the United States is exceedingly provocative and dangerous. The US could quite easily have confronted the Backfire bombers and tried to chase them away. Lacking fighter escort, the Backfire bombers are sitting ducks against the US Air Force which can easily operate over the entire Caribbean from multiple bases in Florida or air bases in Mississippi and Texas.
It turns out that the Trump administration exercised considerable restraint, apparently did not shadow or confront the Backfire bombers (although they were shadowed by Norwegian F-16 aircraft as they crossed Europe). There are no reports of US aircraft in the United States scrambling.
The fact that Russia carried out a military drill that was of no military purpose and then had to turn tail and go home, suggests the Russians got hard warnings from the Trump administration, discernible from the tone of the rhetoric especially from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and so they pulled back.
Perhaps in the back-channel communication the US administration reminded the Russians of the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.
Putin may want to rethink the games he is playing. The Backfires certainly backfired.
Great article on Russia Putin grand standing use of military informative and couldn’t agree more with the analysis
Great article on Russia Putin grand standing use of military informative and couldn’t agree more with the analysis
That’s because you are either brainwashed or a liar.
That’s because you are either brainwashed or a liar.
Great job guys. No one expects a proper journalism these days. Next time do some fact checking before publishing. The aircraft sent were Tu-160 Blackjack not Tu-22 Backfire. Should we read the rest of the article. Probably not.
Great job guys. No one expects a proper journalism these days. Next time do some fact checking before publishing. The aircraft sent were Tu-160 Blackjack not Tu-22 Backfire. Should we read the rest of the article. Probably not.
stupid analysis only for pigs
stupid analysis only for pigs
A freedom of aviation excercise, how does the US like it close to their borders?
A freedom of aviation excercise, how does the US like it close to their borders?
What a stupid article. Apart from the caption pic confusing a Tu-160 with aTu-22m, the whole narrative is wrong. Russia sent to strategic bombers to Venezuela as part of an exercise. Get over it…
What a stupid article. Apart from the caption pic confusing a Tu-160 with aTu-22m, the whole narrative is wrong. Russia sent to strategic bombers to Venezuela as part of an exercise. Get over it…
Wow, honestly I am just blown away by the extreme ignorance of the author.
Not only does this propoganda sound like it was written by a foaming at the mouth neocon working at the State Department, but the author actually believes the Russians sent down a pair of Tu-22M3’s and then proceeds to riddle the whole piece with info on an aircraft that never went down to Venezuela??
Let that sink in to all the readers of this nut job.
If the "author" cant even get the basic facts straight what other fake news is contained within?
Wow, honestly I am just blown away by the extreme ignorance of the author.
Not only does this propoganda sound like it was written by a foaming at the mouth neocon working at the State Department, but the author actually believes the Russians sent down a pair of Tu-22M3’s and then proceeds to riddle the whole piece with info on an aircraft that never went down to Venezuela??
Let that sink in to all the readers of this nut job.
If the "author" cant even get the basic facts straight what other fake news is contained within?
Stephen Bryen barking incoherently again on behalf of his masters. He should bark somewhere where his nonsense could sound ‘intelligent’ to the folks, like in the USA.
Stephen Bryen barking incoherently again on behalf of his masters. He should bark somewhere where his nonsense could sound ‘intelligent’ to the folks, like in the USA.
Russia Putin is a good man
Russia Putin is a good man
Good lenders deserve good respect
Good lenders deserve good respect
Russia sent two BlackJacks Tu-160, not Backfires. Your whole article is trash at best.
Russia sent two BlackJacks Tu-160, not Backfires. Your whole article is trash at best.
Max Glazer Very nice comment to the point. Although I disagree with you! I have watched Putin Russia for the last 30 years. Putin is like a WWE wrestler as a politician in action and form. Putin’s barbaric yawp and riding half naked on horse back says it all. Putin’s low intelligent and pandering to the masses most basic of needs. Putin fears his own people more than any country no country on earth wants to take over Russia. Putin as a strategist is more baboon like a baboon that yells and threatens all around baring his teeth. The detail of this article is good. the Jet Weather the jet is a Tu-22 or Tu-160 is small time and you miss the point completely it should have a Nose art painted on the side of Putin riding half naked on a growling bear but that’s good you have the right to your opinion and can grow and learn what is important in life.
Max Glazer Very nice comment to the point. Although I disagree with you! I have watched Putin Russia for the last 30 years. Putin is like a WWE wrestler as a politician in action and form. Putin’s barbaric yawp and riding half naked on horse back says it all. Putin’s low intelligent and pandering to the masses most basic of needs. Putin fears his own people more than any country no country on earth wants to take over Russia. Putin as a strategist is more baboon like a baboon that yells and threatens all around baring his teeth. The detail of this article is good. the Jet Weather the jet is a Tu-22 or Tu-160 is small time and you miss the point completely it should have a Nose art painted on the side of Putin riding half naked on a growling bear but that’s good you have the right to your opinion and can grow and learn what is important in life.
Biggy Oneman This nonsensical drivel you posted is yet more proof that my assessment of you is entirely correct. Even more so it proves that rather than former option of you being brainwashed, it’s the LATTER that is correct. And finally checking your profile provided all the proof one needed: noone creates an empty profile with no friends or photos. You are simply a paid lying troll.
Biggy Oneman This nonsensical drivel you posted is yet more proof that my assessment of you is entirely correct. Even more so it proves that rather than former option of you being brainwashed, it’s the LATTER that is correct. And finally checking your profile provided all the proof one needed: noone creates an empty profile with no friends or photos. You are simply a paid lying troll.
You are being too kind to the "author". The article isn’t full of falsehoods due to "authors" ignorance. It’s full of falsehoods on purpose and because it is a deliberate lie.
You are being too kind to the "author". The article isn’t full of falsehoods due to "authors" ignorance. It’s full of falsehoods on purpose and because it is a deliberate lie.
Thank you very much my friend and you are 100% correct about the aircraft
and I want to tell you that you are 80% correct about the rest of the article you should absolutely not read it there is so much propaganda in there that it came close to making me puke and if that’s not bad enough I really think that they should have paid the person who wrote this article more money because he’s being really bad at his job if you make one mistake that’s forgiven if you repeat it 5 times it makes you look very foolish and your credibility goes down the drain
And another thing about the article he writes that the Americans would shoot down those aircraft in international air space that’s one of the biggest nonsense I have ever heard the Americans were not stupid they will always choose a third party to carry out their dirty work they are not that brave believe me once there is a direct confrontation between a Russian aircraft and an American aircraft both sides are very careful because the Americans know very well if they do something very stupid the Russian Federation will respond with something very stupid and the other side around if the Russian Federation does something really stupid they know the Americans will do something very stupid and the rest of the world will have a big problem
Thank you very much my friend and you are 100% correct about the aircraft
and I want to tell you that you are 80% correct about the rest of the article you should absolutely not read it there is so much propaganda in there that it came close to making me puke and if that’s not bad enough I really think that they should have paid the person who wrote this article more money because he’s being really bad at his job if you make one mistake that’s forgiven if you repeat it 5 times it makes you look very foolish and your credibility goes down the drain
And another thing about the article he writes that the Americans would shoot down those aircraft in international air space that’s one of the biggest nonsense I have ever heard the Americans were not stupid they will always choose a third party to carry out their dirty work they are not that brave believe me once there is a direct confrontation between a Russian aircraft and an American aircraft both sides are very careful because the Americans know very well if they do something very stupid the Russian Federation will respond with something very stupid and the other side around if the Russian Federation does something really stupid they know the Americans will do something very stupid and the rest of the world will have a big problem
Hi there thank you for writing this article it was very interesting.
but I think you need a little bit of help.
because somebody is giving you a lot of information that is not correct.
I don’t know who’s the source or a y but they are making a big fool of you.
First things first the aircraft that you are mentioning Sorry my friend but that’s not correct.
just to inform you the aircraft is a https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-160
Secondly you tell that day 1 of it out of the agreement that’s also not correct sorry look it up.
then you say that the Americans would shoot those Bomber out of the air.
I am really sorry but somebody is really f****** you over
and they are making a big fool of out of you.
The United States of America is not stupid and they know very well if they shoot at the Russian aircraft in international airspace there is a very good chance that the Russian Federation would do stupid thing.
.and the Americans have to respond to that stupid thing and the Russians will respond to the stupid thing the Americans did.
and if you were a little bit familiar about how things get out of control this is how it works before you know it there is a big war and maybe you realise or maybe not but both the Russian Federation and the United States of America will do pretty much everything to avoid a direct Confrontation between the United States and Russian Federation pretty much in all cases United States of America will use one of his friends of NATO are other countries to do it’s dirty job they will never do it themselves.
And I know you have a pretty severe problem of only looking through the eyes of the United States of America but you have a job please do it well a lot of people appreciate the website that you write on and you are really making it look very bad.
because if you write an article like this with so much propaganda a lot of people will think you know what I will go to another website and maybe I will take my business with me and not posted any of my things anymore on your website and I could easily understand them do your job please
Hi there thank you for writing this article it was very interesting.
but I think you need a little bit of help.
because somebody is giving you a lot of information that is not correct.
I don’t know who’s the source or a y but they are making a big fool of you.
First things first the aircraft that you are mentioning Sorry my friend but that’s not correct.
just to inform you the aircraft is a https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-160
Secondly you tell that day 1 of it out of the agreement that’s also not correct sorry look it up.
then you say that the Americans would shoot those Bomber out of the air.
I am really sorry but somebody is really f****** you over
and they are making a big fool of out of you.
The United States of America is not stupid and they know very well if they shoot at the Russian aircraft in international airspace there is a very good chance that the Russian Federation would do stupid thing.
.and the Americans have to respond to that stupid thing and the Russians will respond to the stupid thing the Americans did.
and if you were a little bit familiar about how things get out of control this is how it works before you know it there is a big war and maybe you realise or maybe not but both the Russian Federation and the United States of America will do pretty much everything to avoid a direct Confrontation between the United States and Russian Federation pretty much in all cases United States of America will use one of his friends of NATO are other countries to do it’s dirty job they will never do it themselves.
And I know you have a pretty severe problem of only looking through the eyes of the United States of America but you have a job please do it well a lot of people appreciate the website that you write on and you are really making it look very bad.
because if you write an article like this with so much propaganda a lot of people will think you know what I will go to another website and maybe I will take my business with me and not posted any of my things anymore on your website and I could easily understand them do your job please
Part of the article is warthles sice you confused the type of the airplanes. From the other part it seems that you ignor the history. I have no other comments.
Part of the article is warthles sice you confused the type of the airplanes. From the other part it seems that you ignor the history. I have no other comments.
The article seems to be not professionaly prepared. The aircraft sent were Tu-160 Blackjack not Tu-22 Backfire. This basic onfusion of the type of aircraft involved makes the whole article useless!! The writer should do his homework properly before rushing to publish an article with glaring factual errors and gaps.
The article seems to be not professionaly prepared. The aircraft sent were Tu-160 Blackjack not Tu-22 Backfire. This basic onfusion of the type of aircraft involved makes the whole article useless!! The writer should do his homework properly before rushing to publish an article with glaring factual errors and gaps.
This article must have been written by an intern, so cheap, it cannot pass through a group of serious Editors!
This article must have been written by an intern, so cheap, it cannot pass through a group of serious Editors!
Giving a base right to Russia in Cuba, Venezuela or Nicaragua will be a hostile act against the US, but giving same to the US in Ukraine, Poland, Georgia etc constitute a friendly act to Russia, right! Fairness must prevail for a peaceful world.
Giving a base right to Russia in Cuba, Venezuela or Nicaragua will be a hostile act against the US, but giving same to the US in Ukraine, Poland, Georgia etc constitute a friendly act to Russia, right! Fairness must prevail for a peaceful world.
James Kazonga Ahhh you made me smile but really. The US is better armed and supplied Putin is outmatched. US does not go arouond and brag about weapons. It is sad to see the measures someone like Putin goes to make himself look big Putin should take his shirt off and grab a pot and pan and march up and down Red square and yawp. I mean really why fight Putin it would just waste people lives. I like Russians just not Putin he is a bad leader without intergrity. Putin what ever he has done was for himself now at the end he should just retire and sip coffee in Spain at his villa, attend charity, be on dancing with the stars. Russians decided their leader if Putin takes them down a dark road. All I can is suggest a different route. Putin needs to take care of the Russian people first it is sad old people without care, young people without work unless they want to be little green army guys to die in some war Putin starts. If something does happen I am sure the US will send aid to Russia afterwards to clean up his mess. Cheer up things can change Putin could step down from office. I know war seems exciting but it is not for the looser or winner. Peace be with you friend.
James Kazonga Ahhh you made me smile but really. The US is better armed and supplied Putin is outmatched. US does not go arouond and brag about weapons. It is sad to see the measures someone like Putin goes to make himself look big Putin should take his shirt off and grab a pot and pan and march up and down Red square and yawp. I mean really why fight Putin it would just waste people lives. I like Russians just not Putin he is a bad leader without intergrity. Putin what ever he has done was for himself now at the end he should just retire and sip coffee in Spain at his villa, attend charity, be on dancing with the stars. Russians decided their leader if Putin takes them down a dark road. All I can is suggest a different route. Putin needs to take care of the Russian people first it is sad old people without care, young people without work unless they want to be little green army guys to die in some war Putin starts. If something does happen I am sure the US will send aid to Russia afterwards to clean up his mess. Cheer up things can change Putin could step down from office. I know war seems exciting but it is not for the looser or winner. Peace be with you friend.
Are you trolling or you’re illi for real?
Biggy Oneman Are you trolling or you’re illiterate for real?
Biggy Oneman Are you trolling or you’re illiterate for real?