New Delhi was rattled by Bhutan’s October 18 general election, the outcome of which may soon accelerate the decline of India’s influence over the Himalayan kingdom.
The center-left Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa (DNT, Bhutan United Party) won 30 seats out of 47 in the National Assembly, Bhutan’s lower house of parliament, in the second round of the election.
Focusing on Bhutan’s ties with domineering India was not permitted during the election campaign – violators faced fines and reprimands. However, the so-called pro-Indian ex-prime minister Tshering Tobgay’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) lost in the first round on September 15.
Consequently, Indian strategic analysts worried that New Delhi’s influence over the northern frontier nation would be further diminished over the next five years as a result of India’s friend Tobgay being ousted. The Bhutanese people endorsed the DNT’s election manifesto and newly elected Prime Minister Tshering Loaty said he was firmly committed to honoring his party’s election promises.
This recent development in Bhutanese politics matters for India. The DNT’s election manifesto outlines three fundamental policies. First, it aims to diversify Bhutan’s economy to reduce the Indian monopsony of its hydroelectricity.
Second, the DNT emphasizes the reduction of Bhutan’s external debt of US$2.5 billion. The DNT surmises that unless Bhutan reduces its foreign debt vouched by India, it will remain subject to overbearing New Delhi’s influence in the future.
Third, the DNT’s manifesto also underscores private-sector investment for sustainable economic growth and Lotay’s economic policy goal is to attract foreign investment from sources other than India. If the Bhutanese economy starts to diversify, India cannot offset China’s foreign direct investment in Bhutan.
These three critical economic policies aim to free Bhutan from India’s domination. Therefore, Bhutan’s new government will continue its efforts to achieve the status of an independent country in the days to come, and India’s influence will decline further.
Many analysts believe India’s influence in Bhutan began to wane after the Doklam standoff in the summer of 2017. However, the tipping point for diminishing Indian hegemony in Bhutan goes back to 1990 when India used scaremongering tactics to get the government to exile more than 110,000 Nepali-speaking-Hindu Bhutanese (one-fifth of Bhutan’s total population at that time) called Lhotshapasas from Bhutan.
India’s strategists and intelligence officials feared that the popular uprising that overthrew the Nepalese king’s despotic regime in early 1990 could happen elsewhere. They miscalculated the likelihood of a collective demand for a separate independent nation by the Nepalese-speaking people of Sikkim, Darjeeling, Kalingpong, Duars, and southern Bhutan because the Lhotshapas were already demanding respect for human rights and democracy in late 1989.
Bhutan’s new government will continue its efforts to achieve the status of an independent country in the days to come, and India’s influence will decline further
Driven by paranoia, India used scare tactics to persuade Bhutan to drive out the Lhotshampas. Hari Sharma, an aide to then-prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala (1992-95) and then-president Ram Baran Yadav (2008-15), quoted Bhutan’s former King Jigme Singye Wangchuck in the Nepalese daily Naya Patrika on October 27: “Lhotshampas were exiled due to Indian PM Rajiv Gandhi’s pressure, and Indian intelligence also paid for ULFA (United Liberation Front for Assam) to exile them from Bhutan.”
Similarly, Balaram Paudel, the Bhutanese People’s Party’s exiled leader, wrote in Kantipur, a leading Nepalese daily, on July 22: “The Bhutanese king suppressed the Lhotshampas with the slogan of ‘one nation, one nationality’ and India indisputably backed up the King of Bhutan.”
The Hindus believe in the notion of moksha, emancipation from the cog of life and rebirth; all their karmas (actions) and the dharmas (rectitude) aim to secure moksha or rebirth in heaven. One of the key karmas and dharmas of Hindu is to go on a pilgrimage to Char-Dhams (Four Abodes), which are situated in India. For Hindus, India is crucial for not only this life but also for life after death.
Thus, if the Lhotshapas had not been driven out of Bhutan, they would have been represented in the political life of Bhutan, and they would, because of their Hindu beliefs, been more inclined toward India than the Drukpa people. However, the Indian foreign-policy mandarins ignored this Hindu factor and persuaded the Bhutanese king to exile the Lhotshapas to prevent a separatist movement they feared would emerge in the Indian Chicken’s Neck in 1990.
Bhutan is an India-locked country, and the nearest Nepal-India border is about 350 kilometers by road from the Bhutan-India boundary. The Indian Border Security Force (BSF) and the West Bengal Police kept trucks at the Bhutan-India border to take Bhutanese refugees forcibly into Nepal. Moreover, the BSF did not permit Bhutanese refugees to re-enter India when they tried to return to Bhutan several times using the same route, repeatedly expelling them to Nepal. If India had not initiated the expulsion of the Lhotshapas, Bhutan never would have considered such a move.
India’s strategy of fomenting racial friction in Bhutan later turned counterproductive. The Bhutanese king has started to foster diplomatic relations with many countries. When India realized that Bhutanese King Jigme Singye Wangchuck was playing a game to overcome Indian dominance, it forced him to relinquish the throne to his son in 2006.
India also pressured Bhutan to initiate democratic reforms. However, India’s move became counterproductive because, during the tenure of Bhutan’s first democratically elected prime minister, Jigme Y Thinley (2008-2013), the kingdom forged diplomatic ties with 32 additional countries.
Thinley wanted to develop diplomatic ties with China, its northern neighbor and one of the veto countries of UN Security Council, and he met with his counterpart, Premier Wen Jiabao, on June 21, 2012, in Rio de Janeiro without consulting India in advance. India’s angrily reacted with an “LPG subsidy cut” between the first and second round of the election in 2013. As the result, Thinley lost the election in the second round.
However, it was too late because Bhutan already had the centrifugal force needed to offset the centripetal force of India’s influence. Lotay’s victory in the 2018 general election indicates that Bhutan is an increasingly independent nation.
No one sees any point in Bhutan looking toward India once its economy diversifies, which was stressed in the DNT’s election manifesto, and Bhutan develops its ties with China, leading to Bhutan securing maritime access through Chinese routes in the future. The culture, language and religion of the Drukpa are distinct from those of India, as their forefathers were migrants from Tibet in the 9th century.
Indian foreign-policy makers think they are meticulously calculating in the case of Bhutan, but they actually seem quite obtuse. India’s foreign-policy makers felt they had secured their country’s strategic interests with their political maneuvering in Sikkim, Darjeeling, Kalingpong, Duars, and Bhutan by exiling Lhotshapas; however, their idiocy boomeranged 28 years later because Bhutan will not need India in the future.
I still remember when I met in person then-prime minister Krishna Prasad Bhattarai (1990-91) in 2008, as he decried Indian foreign policy: “They [Indians] don’t know in New Delhi what this [Indian role in exiling Lhotshapa from Bhutan in 1990] can lead to in the future.” Bhattarai was right to be skeptical regarding India’s strategy in Bhutan.
Bhutan will continue its efforts to free itself of Indian domination by diversifying its economy, reducing external debt and private-sector development by attracting foreign direct investment from China in the next five years. Perhaps now India is realizing that it made strategic miscalculations in Bhutan.
I am wondering what kind of cartoon Puthukky Nair Kutty would draw to depict India’s geopolitical locus in Bhutan right now. If Kutty were still alive, I surmise, he would draw an Indian man wearing an Indian flag-coloured outfit with his knees offering a receptacle (on which the official documents that hand over the power to manage the security and foreign affairs of Bhutan is placed) to a Chinese man wearing a Chinese flag-colored outfit and says, “Mr China, could you please accept my offer to you?”
Let’s see what happens.. for me no indian in Bhutan..
Mr. Bhim Bhurtel is only creating confustion among the readers. He lacks less knowledge on historical background of India , Nepal & Bhutan. I would like to ask him only one question to Mr. Bhutel, " Who was responsible for Palace Massacre? Definetly you will blame to India.. Because your attitude towards India is not differ from Mr. Oli
government…
Mr. Bhim Bhurtel is only creating confustion among the readers. He lacks less knowledge on historical background of India , Nepal & Bhutan. I would like to ask him only one question to Mr. Bhutel, " Who was responsible for Palace Massacre? Definetly you will blame to India.. Because your attitude towards India is not differ from Mr. Oli
government…
Sir, here most fb id is fake.. They only want to intensify dispute between South Asian nations…
Sir, here most fb id is fake.. They only want to intensify dispute between South Asian nations…
Bullshit
Bullshit
Bullshit
Bullshit
Roshan Basnet, No matter how hard u all try to defame our king,country n people by fabricating false article,truth will be always a truth.
By the way,for ur kind information,though we have different culture,different language,now we r one as bhutanese under one king,one govt.
Roshan Basnet, No matter how hard u all try to defame our king,country n people by fabricating false article,truth will be always a truth.
By the way,for ur kind information,though we have different culture,different language,now we r one as bhutanese under one king,one govt.
Then why UK & USA took them as Bhutanese refusee and settled them , if they had Nepalese id , wouldn’t have questions of re settlement after shutting their door to go back ????&
Then why UK & USA took them as Bhutanese refusee and settled them , if they had Nepalese id , wouldn’t have questions of re settlement after shutting their door to go back ????&
I read many good and bad comments. I hate being slave to any masters. I do not like anyone to teach walk to my country. But, what I have observed ‘mental and spiritual status’ of some of the people linked to this article here are more than a proxy to outsiders. Such people or such system is the cause for Bhutan being designed for others’ happiness.
I read many good and bad comments. I hate being slave to any masters. I do not like anyone to teach walk to my country. But, what I have observed ‘mental and spiritual status’ of some of the people linked to this article here are more than a proxy to outsiders. Such people or such system is the cause for Bhutan being designed for others’ happiness.
Please note do NOT misconceive US- the Indian Gorkhas whose language is included in the Eigth schedule of the Indian Constitution in the name of Gorkhabhasa as well.we had protested against inclusion of the language in Nepali name as we wanted to be differentiated from Nepali language speaking flood of Nepali speaking population entering our country India ever since 31of August 1992.Therefore Mr Bhurtel,do not call our Indian Gorkhas living in this area of Gorkhaarea by ‘Nepalese name.Ever since1924 Nepali missionaries like DharniDhar Koirala,Surya Bikkram Gyanwali interfered with our destiny,we had almost lost our Indian Identity,but we got it back post Gorkhaland battle.India is our Motherland.If you people continue calling us Nepalese,Nepal will be the worst loser in time to come.Dr Mani Kumar Sharma Siliguri,WB
Please note do NOT misconceive US- the Indian Gorkhas whose language is included in the Eigth schedule of the Indian Constitution in the name of Gorkhabhasa as well.we had protested against inclusion of the language in Nepali name as we wanted to be differentiated from Nepali language speaking flood of Nepali speaking population entering our country India ever since 31of August 1992.Therefore Mr Bhurtel,do not call our Indian Gorkhas living in this area of Gorkhaarea by ‘Nepalese name.Ever since1924 Nepali missionaries like DharniDhar Koirala,Surya Bikkram Gyanwali interfered with our destiny,we had almost lost our Indian Identity,but we got it back post Gorkhaland battle.India is our Motherland.If you people continue calling us Nepalese,Nepal will be the worst loser in time to come.Dr Mani Kumar Sharma Siliguri,WB
The Nepal Govt and the Nepalese must stop mis conceiving the Indian Gorkhas as/for Nepalese.The Indian Gorkhas whose language is included as Gorkhabhasa in the Eigth schedule of the Indian Constitution on 2oth of August 1992.must not be called Nepalese.We are Indian,we are not Nepalese.Nepali people first see elephants on their head rather than moles on our bottom Dr Mani Kumar Sharma ,Siliguri,WB India..
The Nepal Govt and the Nepalese must stop mis conceiving the Indian Gorkhas as/for Nepalese.The Indian Gorkhas whose language is included as Gorkhabhasa in the Eigth schedule of the Indian Constitution on 2oth of August 1992.must not be called Nepalese.We are Indian,we are not Nepalese.Nepali people first see elephants on their head rather than moles on our bottom Dr Mani Kumar Sharma ,Siliguri,WB India..
Lets first return the millions lost by Bhutanese and Neaplese from the demonetization. Then stop poor treatment of Nepalese by Indian expatriates in Nepal.
Lets first return the millions lost by Bhutanese and Neaplese from the demonetization. Then stop poor treatment of Nepalese by Indian expatriates in Nepal.
Ya we know about our population but we don’t have door to door beggars like your country, we have low population but happy without beggars. So for your kind information plz plz stay away from our country and don’t write fake history on other country but try to save your own country which you have sold to China on credit
Ya we know about our population but we don’t have door to door beggars like your country, we have low population but happy without beggars. So for your kind information plz plz stay away from our country and don’t write fake history on other country but try to save your own country which you have sold to China on credit
Prashant Chalise nepali spoken doesnt mean that it consist of 60%lhotshampa. I am sharchogpa. I know very well how to write n speak in my national languages though m sharchogpa. i can even speak nepali,hindi but cant write. Where do i belong. m i Lhotshampa or indian. Dont misunderstand that when we know how to speak lhotshampa language,doesnt mean we r lhotshampas. It is our kind attitude that we speak nepali without discriminating or differentiating with eachother.
If m not mistaken,people in bhutan knows hindi more than nepali. But Dont misunderstand that we r indian.
Prashant Chalise nepali spoken doesnt mean that it consist of 60%lhotshampa. I am sharchogpa. I know very well how to write n speak in my national languages though m sharchogpa. i can even speak nepali,hindi but cant write. Where do i belong. m i Lhotshampa or indian. Dont misunderstand that when we know how to speak lhotshampa language,doesnt mean we r lhotshampas. It is our kind attitude that we speak nepali without discriminating or differentiating with eachother.
If m not mistaken,people in bhutan knows hindi more than nepali. But Dont misunderstand that we r indian.
Prashant Chalise Then r u like those animal that doesnt know how to do meo. By the,u have givem e ample with 6 cattle,2 cat,1 dog, mouse. Among those animal,u all were a mouse n dominant nos n main forefather habitant were trying to please u all to learn the mainland languages. We r small country with less populatuin. We have to be united,so as to recognise our cou try as independant nation by the world. But what was respond from mouse. Tried to tear all clothe,distabilise the home,spread the desease. What else u all didnt do to distabiise our nation. No use of adding salt in ur own wound. Better,let it heal itself n should not forget to apply medical ointment.
Prashant Chalise Then r u like those animal that doesnt know how to do meo. By the,u have givem e ample with 6 cattle,2 cat,1 dog, mouse. Among those animal,u all were a mouse n dominant nos n main forefather habitant were trying to please u all to learn the mainland languages. We r small country with less populatuin. We have to be united,so as to recognise our cou try as independant nation by the world. But what was respond from mouse. Tried to tear all clothe,distabilise the home,spread the desease. What else u all didnt do to distabiise our nation. No use of adding salt in ur own wound. Better,let it heal itself n should not forget to apply medical ointment.
The author is the director of a think tank ased in Nepal funded by the chinese, color me surprised when he goes about spewing concoted BS.
The author is the director of a think tank ased in Nepal funded by the chinese, color me surprised when he goes about spewing concoted BS.
Santos Karki Atleast feel fortunate that u all got those citizen. Otherwise,u all were no where how to live n survive. Infact there is advantage in both side. The people who betrays were no longer belong to country n they got citizen where they got more oppurtunity. Otherside people who were loyal to king n govt,they r living happily with equal rights n oppurtunities. Even then I wish u all good luck. Have good life n enjoy ur life.please dont try to disturb people who r living happily here. Now we r one nation,one people.
Santos Karki Atleast feel fortunate that u all got those citizen. Otherwise,u all were no where how to live n survive. Infact there is advantage in both side. The people who betrays were no longer belong to country n they got citizen where they got more oppurtunity. Otherside people who were loyal to king n govt,they r living happily with equal rights n oppurtunities. Even then I wish u all good luck. Have good life n enjoy ur life.please dont try to disturb people who r living happily here. Now we r one nation,one people.
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-remains-the-cornerstone-of-our-foreign-policy-bhutans-new-foreign-minister/article25656535.ece
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-remains-the-cornerstone-of-our-foreign-policy-bhutans-new-foreign-minister/article25656535.ece