US stocks today gave up a modest advance and fell into negative territory after Bloomberg News reported that the US would impose tariffs on all Chinese imports if talks between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping failed to resolve the trade war. “The list would apply to the imports from the Asian nation that aren’t already covered by previous rounds of tariffs – which may be $257 billion using last year’s import figures,” the news service wrote.
The stock market’s reflex reaction to trade war news ignored the information content of the report: There will be negotiations between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump over Sino-American trade at the Group of 20 meeting in Buenos Aires, to be held from November 30 to December 1.
There has been speculation about a meeting, but the American side had told media that the trade issue might not even be on the two presidents’ agenda. If Trump and Xi Jinping expect to make progress on trade, preliminary discussions must already be underway among senior officials.
I reported from Beijing last week that China is seeking a framework for a trade deal with Trump, including at least rhetorical concessions about the goals of its industrial policy, a source of American contention.
“China’s state-sponsored push to dominate technologies of the future is one of the biggest stumbling blocks to prospects for resolution to the US trade war,” Bloomberg News wrote yesterday, adding, “Officials from both sides are pessimistic about chances for a breakthrough when Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet on the sidelines of the [G-20 summit].” That is the sort of fake news that President Trump bemoans, but in this case it appears to emanate from the US Administration.
Chinese analysts told me earlier this month that Beijing might be willing to abandon his rhetoric about dominating some high-tech industries by 2025 without, however, materially changing its economic plans. The 2025 goal had less to do with the practicalities of industrial policy than with the government’s domestic public relations.
Another indication that the US and China are negotiating in earnest is a report by Reuters that China will take an important step towards complying with US sanctions against Iran. The news service wrote: “Bank of Kunlun Co, the key Chinese conduit for transactions with Iran, is set to halt handling payments from the Islamic Republic under pressure of imminent US sanctions against the country, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.” The new US sanctions take effect November 1.
Reuters added, “China is the top buyer of Iranian oil and nearly all of its oil payments go through Kunlun. China had been buying some $1.5 billion worth of oil each month from Iran as recently as September. But state refiners have since October been scaling back oil purchases from Iran to comply with looming US sanctions, oil industry sources have said. The previously unreported moves by Kunlun highlight the mounting pressure Beijing faces as Washington reimposes sanctions targeting Iran’s financial and oil sectors from early November.”
An adviser to China’s State Council told me earlier this month that the Chinese government might consider making a gesture to the United States about Iran in pursuit of a trade settlement with the United States. Officially, China has opposed America’s unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. It isn’t clear why China decided to suspend its normal channel of payments for trade with Iran. Writing in the website Axios today, Jarrett Blanc of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace offered two possible explanations.
“China may simply be further insulating its biggest firms from Iran-related sanctions by removing them from this trading relationship,” Blanc wrote, “leaving smaller Chinese refiners and banks to step into the gaps left by Kunlun, Sinopec and CNPC. This would put some effective limits on Iranian oil sales and other trade without totally shutting it down.”
But the Chinese move also might represent “a diplomatic concession,” according to the Carnegie Endowment researcher. “If China is preparing to comply with re-imposed US sanctions, it might be as a sweetener to secure a Trump-Xi meeting at the November G20 to make progress on the trade war, which is vastly more important to both countries than Iran sanctions.”
President Trump’s “Art of the Deal” approach to negotiations maximizes hostile rhetoric going in but seeks to reach an agreement going out. It is far from clear how US-China discussions will play out, but from the hints that American and Chinese officials have dropped recently, a negotiation is underway rather than an all-out confrontation.
If the orange Idiot had not surrended himself with Israeli lobby agents and Ziocon warmongering spies, he would have been a decent president given that he wants to expand business. If he had only built upon what Obama had created rather than destroying all of Obama’s international wins. Its a sad case that a country like USA has so much potential but is bogged down by this sinister Israeli lobby.
If the orange Idiot had not surrended himself with Israeli lobby agents and Ziocon warmongering spies, he would have been a decent president given that he wants to expand business. If he had only built upon what Obama had created rather than destroying all of Obama’s international wins. Its a sad case that a country like USA has so much potential but is bogged down by this sinister Israeli lobby.
It’ll be like NAFTA, a few minor changes, then Trump doing the Nixon victory dance. The only thing T has accomplished in 2 years is to cut taxes and increase spending. It’s like Hillary with a bit less war.
It’ll be like NAFTA, a few minor changes, then Trump doing the Nixon victory dance. The only thing T has accomplished in 2 years is to cut taxes and increase spending. It’s like Hillary with a bit less war.
Exactly this. China was always going to stop its large firms from dealing with Iran. This minimizes the sanction risk onto any firms with brand equity.
Now, it’s the 2nd tier and "no-brand" firms that will start to deal with Iran. Very difficult to effectively sanction, take one down, another 2 will pop up.
Coupled with using non-USD currency for oil sales, there are zero indicators that show China is going to acquiesce to unilateral US demands.
Exactly this. China was always going to stop its large firms from dealing with Iran. This minimizes the sanction risk onto any firms with brand equity.
Now, it’s the 2nd tier and "no-brand" firms that will start to deal with Iran. Very difficult to effectively sanction, take one down, another 2 will pop up.
Coupled with using non-USD currency for oil sales, there are zero indicators that show China is going to acquiesce to unilateral US demands.
If China even contemplating to discuss Iran with US – well good luck but that is very weak signal…
If China even contemplating to discuss Iran with US – well good luck but that is very weak signal…
Ken Nguyen The latter part, buying American stuff, is what fvcked Japan and SK when they bought:
1. Commercials building, eg Rockefeller building, all tenants moved out. Japanese eventually forced to sell at huge lost.
2. Same for golf courses, unlimited land in USA; Malls, all stores moved put; hotels, no bookings.
3. Any American companies bought are loaded with debt, pensions underfunded, technology obsolete or simply deleted.
4.Any land or property can be heavily taxed or worst rezoned prevented from use on a wimp by the local government.
So the bad China is barred from spending money in America is actually a blessing. Instead spend USD for raw resource on fools who still like USDs. ahhahaha eg Southeast Asia, Aus, some ME, eastern europe, and Polynesia. hahahah
Ken Nguyen The latter part, buying American stuff, is what fvcked Japan and SK when they bought:
1. Commercials building, eg Rockefeller building, all tenants moved out. Japanese eventually forced to sell at huge lost.
2. Same for golf courses, unlimited land in USA; Malls, all stores moved put; hotels, no bookings.
3. Any American companies bought are loaded with debt, pensions underfunded, technology obsolete or simply deleted.
4.Any land or property can be heavily taxed or worst rezoned prevented from use on a wimp by the local government.
So the bad China is barred from spending money in America is actually a blessing. Instead spend USD for raw resource on fools who still like USDs. ahhahaha eg Southeast Asia, Aus, some ME, eastern europe, and Polynesia. hahahah
China may simply be further insulating its biggest firms from Iran-related sanctions by removing them from this trading relationship.
China may simply be further insulating its biggest firms from Iran-related sanctions by removing them from this trading relationship.
When your customer can only pay you with IOUs (aka Treasury bonds) and refuse to sell you with what you really need, it is time to diversify away from that customer and reduce the financial risks associated with USA !
When your customer can only pay you with IOUs (aka Treasury bonds) and refuse to sell you with what you really need, it is time to diversify away from that customer and reduce the financial risks associated with USA !
"President Trump’s ‘Art of the Deal’ approach"
ATimes can consistently depend on Mr. Goldman for a good Trump bootlicking.
Considering "Art of the Deal" was paid for and ghostwritten, with the real author openly admitting he made up much of the book, it’s actually a fitting strategy to characterize Trump’s approach: hot air and total bullshit.
Trump is far more dependent on a deal than Xi is. The midterms are only a few days away, I’m sure Xi would love to see what the environment is like once the Dems take control.
Now it’s clear China won’t submit easily, and Trump is demanding Chinese concessions before meeting – even a child can see Trump is trying to use China as leverage to save his own midterms.
I’d love to see how Trump’s impoverished base can deal with tariffs on all Chinese goods. Any measly savings from the "tax cut" are already being overshadowed.
"President Trump’s ‘Art of the Deal’ approach"
ATimes can consistently depend on Mr. Goldman for a good Trump bootlicking.
Considering "Art of the Deal" was paid for and ghostwritten, with the real author openly admitting he made up much of the book, it’s actually a fitting strategy to characterize Trump’s approach: hot air and total bullshit.
Trump is far more dependent on a deal than Xi is. The midterms are only a few days away, I’m sure Xi would love to see what the environment is like once the Dems take control.
Now it’s clear China won’t submit easily, and Trump is demanding Chinese concessions before meeting – even a child can see Trump is trying to use China as leverage to save his own midterms.
I’d love to see how Trump’s impoverished base can deal with tariffs on all Chinese goods. Any measly savings from the "tax cut" are already being overshadowed.
It takes two to tango. China has the industrial capacity to produce needed goods. The US pays for it with its fake currency. Everybody goes home happy.
It takes two to tango. China has the industrial capacity to produce needed goods. The US pays for it with its fake currency. Everybody goes home happy.